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-   -   Speculation: What's happening with the planes scheduled to fly to China? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-canada-aeroplan/2007115-speculation-whats-happening-planes-scheduled-fly-china.html)

cooleddie Feb 2, 2020 10:53 am


Originally Posted by capedreamer (Post 32020803)
Wishful thinking perhaps, but I'd love to see a 787/777 replace the 763 that's currently operating AC824/825.

ewww id rather fly KLM than flying a 763 on that route lol

YYZ_tatlflyer Feb 2, 2020 11:07 am

AC791 YYZ-LAX 787 has been replaced with a mainline 763 starting next week. 787s in short supply?

capedreamer Feb 2, 2020 11:28 am


Originally Posted by cooleddie (Post 32024039)
ewww id rather fly KLM than flying a 763 on that route lol

KLM is not putting me in J.

42000ft Feb 2, 2020 1:21 pm

Yes please deploy the China aircraft in all routes that passengers currently suffer at the hands of both mainline and rouge 763s

Eternity000 Feb 2, 2020 1:44 pm

Curious about those 10 787s that will be dormiant. I assume some will be replacing the older 333s and 763s that have water issues sometimes. Especially the 763s that don’t even have sensors and require touching those knobs that are probably never cleaned.

canadiancow Feb 2, 2020 2:01 pm


Originally Posted by Eternity000 (Post 32024587)
Curious about those 10 787s that will be dormiant. I assume some will be replacing the older 333s and 763s that have water issues sometimes. Especially the 763s that don’t even have sensors and require touching those knobs that are probably never cleaned.

If we're lucky, it'll speed up wifi installation.

BrotherBranwell Feb 2, 2020 3:08 pm

Years ago I voted with my wallet and rarely fly AC anymore. However one flight I occasionally take (as there are no alternatives) is AC868 - the daytime flight from YYZ-LHR. This flight is going to be cancelled for most of Feb/Mar/April apparently due to equipment shortages resulting from the MAX issues. Indeed I believe today may be the last day it operates for a while.

Would certainly be nice to have it back - although most unlikely I'd imagine given the uncertainty of the length of the China cancellations. Whenever they do bring it back one small suggestion would be that a pax paying $5K+ for a 7 hour flight actually get their choice of meal - frequently doesn't happen on 868.

codfather Feb 2, 2020 6:21 pm

It is quite interesting how they can't really make significant changes to the schedules with all these planes that were slated to go to China. I guess it would be far too costly and difficult to make adjustments to the schedule so that they can be used more frequently.

Seems like the logical thing to do, but airline schedules are not really subject to (significant) change.

EdmFlyBoi Feb 2, 2020 6:25 pm


Originally Posted by BrotherBranwell (Post 32024851)
Years ago I voted with my wallet and rarely fly AC anymore. However one flight I occasionally take (as there are no alternatives) is AC868 - the daytime flight from YYZ-LHR. This flight is going to be cancelled for most of Feb/Mar/April apparently due to equipment shortages resulting from the MAX issues. Indeed I believe today may be the last day it operates for a while.

Would certainly be nice to have it back - although most unlikely I'd imagine given the uncertainty of the length of the China cancellations. Whenever they do bring it back one small suggestion would be that a pax paying $5K+ for a 7 hour flight actually get their choice of meal - frequently doesn't happen on 868.

Unlikely they will put it back into the schedule as it would require a fair number of short notice bookings to fill the plane, especially the back. It sure would help the YYZ-LHR prices though, they have been pretty high lately.

CZAMFlyer Feb 2, 2020 6:40 pm

I expect some of the 789s will be integrated into existing schedules, allowing for deferred maintenance of some overworked planes. There may be up gauging of airframes on certain routes, but AC bean counters will balance that against the current high yields they're getting. Some of the 789s may indeed be subject to maintenance themselves, and/or wifi installation, and/or repainting to the 'new' livery'. It's a fair bet that few, if any, of them will be 'sitting dormant' while China routes are suspended.

One important item to remember: none of the individual planes in AC's fleet are assigned to a specific route. Any of the Dreamliners could be used to fly to Asia then Australia then Europe and within North America in any given week.

tracon Feb 2, 2020 8:22 pm


Originally Posted by EdmFlyBoi (Post 32021749)
So many options with such slack in the 789 fleet - there are 10 frames that are not being used for China flying. It seems likely that all or part of the schedule will not resume at the end of February. It would be great if AC could accelerate the A330's refurbs and reduce the Rouge and Mainline 767 flying (especially transcon).

It's closer to 7 frames that have been freed up.
YVR-PVG/PEK is roughly 1.1 frames/day/route.
Central Canada - China would be about 1.3 frames/day/route.
Montreal - PVG wasn't daily was it?

OTP should improve on the remaining routes as the planes aren't being run ragged with minimum turn times.

Boeing might be the big winner here.
I suspect they won't have to pay Max compensation when governments have banned flying to/from/within China.
Thereby freeing up planes to operate routes the max otherwise would have flown.

RangerNS Feb 2, 2020 8:35 pm


Originally Posted by codfather (Post 32025350)
It is quite interesting how they can't really make significant changes to the schedules with all these planes that were slated to go to China. I guess it would be far too costly and difficult to make adjustments to the schedule so that they can be used more frequently.

Seems like the logical thing to do, but airline schedules are not really subject to (significant) change.

Stored away from ice (read: salt) and with suitable lubing up, several months of idle time will cost little more than financing interest. It's hours and cycles that cost;, fire extinguishers and bandaids that expire based on the calendar are cheap.

It could easily be months to get space in a maintenance hangar, or expected parts on the shelf.

CZAMFlyer Feb 2, 2020 8:52 pm


Originally Posted by RangerNS (Post 32025612)
Stored away from ice (read: salt) and with suitable lubing up, several months of idle time will cost little more than financing interest. It's hours and cycles that cos;, fire extinguishers and bandaids that expire based on the calendar are cheap.

It could easily be months to get space in a maintenance hangar, or expected parts on the shelf.

There's a few things that aren't likely in this post. Airplanes are not exposed to salt or any other chloride-based product on icy surfaces. I can't think of a Canadian airport nor any Dreamliner destination that uses (or requires the use of) salt. Potassium Acetate and Sodium Formate are used for surface anti/deicing and are non-corrosive.

Several months of an idle Boeing 787 would cost its owner millions of dollars per frame. Don't be fooled into believing that any airline is saving money by parking its airplanes.

It may take months to book a slot at a third-party MRO shop, yes. None of the 787 fleet require such attention yet. Air Canada is able to perform any and all required routine 787 maintenance in-house at this stage of their operating lives. They hold the ability to schedule and prioritize their maintenance schedule as they see fit. Boeing may have dropped the ball on a number of fronts, but they still provide rapid customer service for any and all Dreamliner parts, assuming AC doesn't already stock a needed item in YYZ/YVR/YUL. AC could expect overnight parts delivery to any airport in Canada south of 60.

RangerNS Feb 2, 2020 9:01 pm


Originally Posted by CZAMFlyer (Post 32025658)
Several months of an idle Boeing 787 would cost its owner millions of dollars per frame. Don't be fooled into believing that any airline is saving money by parking its airplanes.

the AC market is only so big. They only need so many seats. They can only sell so many in the next couple of months, which is the context at hand.


Originally Posted by CZAMFlyer (Post 32025658)
It may take months to book a slot at a third-party MRO shop, yes. None of the 787 fleet require such attention yet. Air Canada is able to perform any and all required routine 787 maintenance in-house at this stage of their operating lives.

Parts that you keep on hand because they break and parts you will need on a fixed schedule are different things. Either way the in-house hangars have aircraft in them, now, in a million pieces. It would take time to so much as clean up th floorspace, let alone put a functional aircraft back on the ramp if they wanted to accelerate the 787 checks.

CZAMFlyer Feb 2, 2020 9:17 pm


Originally Posted by RangerNS (Post 32025686)
the AC market is only so big. They only need so many seats. They can only sell so many in the next couple of months, which is the context at hand..

I've said previously that I don't know what the company plans are for the 'excess' airplanes, but the AC market as you term it has been constrained since March. Demand for seats has often outstripped supply, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some relief enter the market in terms of reinstating suspended routes or relieving smaller aircraft. As I mentioned, this will be a bean counter exercise, the results of which we shall have to wait to see.


Originally Posted by RangerNS (Post 32025686)
Parts that you keep on hand because they break and parts you will need on a fixed schedule are different things. Either way the in-house hangars have aircraft in them, now, in a million pieces. It would take time to so much as clean up th floorspace, let alone put a functional aircraft back on the ramp if they wanted to accelerate the 787 checks.

You've lost me here, as I'm not sure which AC hangars are occupied by aircraft in "a million pieces". Nor am I sure why the airline would want to accelerate 787 checks. Perhaps you could help me understand.


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