WN to Hawaii - Impact on UA after increased capacity announcements

WN announced it will be seeking ETOPS to start flying to Hawaii, more than likely from the west coast with the new 737-MAX but starting with the 737-800.

No schedule is announced yet, other than flights will be available to book sometime in 2018.

With United already adding capacity starting December 20th of this year (http://newsroom.united.com/2017-06-1...-Daily-Flights), what do you think the impact of WN adding more seats will do to demand and pricing?

Or will this over saturate the Hawaii-bound market?


https://www.southwestaircommunity.co...aby/ba-p/61199

I think it will depend on where the WN flights will operate from - service from the Inland Empire is sorely needed, so if they started flights from ONT, it would be a huge benefit for those of us who do not want to start driving to LAX at 5am for a morning flight to Hawaii, but not really affect United/Delta/American/Hawaiian from LAX.

Maybe B6 will start the same from Long Beach and break up the LAX monopoly on Hawaii air service.

I know I am not WN's target market, but California to Hawaii is too long a flight for me to buy without a confirmed seat assignment. Also, having E+ is very important to me on a flight that long.

Though, I recall reading that the 737-MAX will have more generous seat widths.

But bocastephen is right: it depends on the exact routes. I feel like LAX/SFO are fairly saturated to Hawaii already. And although it is a leisure destination, it is generally (though not necessarily) a more expensive one than, say, Florida, so I don't know how much more demand there will be just because the flights are cheaper.

Remember that in some markets, like LIH, UA's service enhancement is actually a downgauge over the years when they were flying the pmUA (non-PS) 757-200s that have all been retired. I just looked at a mid-February week and it's two daily 737-800s SFO-LIH, which is similar to WN's capability.

Yes, and they are NOT going to be the lie-flat seats we've been enjoying recently. Hard to justify spending for F when its just a "lounge chair" And, as far as I can see, the pricing is still high.

WN says that it expects to sell seats starting later next year. I read that as service starting in 2019, because nobody would have said what WN said if they are expecting to start service in 2018.

A lot will depend on the economy at the time. It's not just about lie flat in F/J, but about people who have to be pretty desperate to take a middle seat near the lav on a 737 (even a new -MAX).

UA & AA also get substantial European traffic through *A/OW connections and WN can't tap that market, so it's sort of stuck with people who will accept what may mean a night somewhere in both directions (depending on operating schedule).

My concerns are minimal, as I love the ORD-Islands flights, in particularly the ORD-OGG going year-round 5X week (I think?!!?!?). Doubt WN will be competing on that route directly. Hope the traffic and revenue is significant to keep this expanded service.

What routes will WN be flying?

I agree with previous poster that California-Hawaii is plentiful.

Hopefully this will mean cheaper flights & better product.

Not even an option for me. I live 15 min. from ORD; and MDW, where SW flies from, might as well be another country for the difficulty to get there. Besides, I'm not spending 8-9 hours in a coach seat that isn't E+.

Wow, just Wow. I didn't realize that WN has no presence in Hawaii until now! So what does it mean that "WN announced it will be seeking ETOPS"? IIRC, ETOPS refers to the capability of an aircraft, right? Does it mean that none of WN's 737 has ETOPS, and that WN will start to seek approval for its 737 now?

UA has 2 x 752 just for today SFO-LIH.

Both the aircraft and the carrier need ETOPS certification. And yes, likely that WN has not kept ETOPS up to date on its birds that have the technical capability, although I'm not sure.

Fair guess - OAK-HNL and LAX/ONT/SAN/LAS-HNL.

SFO is definitely off WN list because it does not have enough connecting traffic, which WN needs.

My bet is on ONT to start...maybe OAK too, although I thought AS already serves Hawaii from there, but maybe I'm wrong. I think LAS is out of range for the 737, but again, too lazy this afternoon to look up the specs so I may be wrong on that too.

While the "Southwest Effect" is known, their fares are quite often far more expensive than legacy competitors so I don't expect to see any bargains, especially after buying up to priority boarding to avoid 5 hours in middle-seat hell.

Personally I've never flown them in my life, but if I don't need the UA PQM and they are flying from ONT for a price similar to or a small premium over what I would pay from LAX, then I'll give them a shot. I can pack my own food, buy my own beverages inside the terminal, and factor in the cost of priority boarding as a given for the final ticket cost, so why not?

You're right.