Adam Smith

Wishful thinking, I think, just like those hoping for YYZ-LCY. I doubt there's anywhere near enough demand to support most of those routes.

I think the airport would have serious problems if the runway weren't wet

It's not just a matter of subsidies or fairness. Boeing also needs to prove that it was harmed. DL has made the claim, which BBD has indicated it agrees with, that UA doesn't make a product that competes with the CS1. Boeing has attempted to define the market as 100-150 seats, which brings the 737 into competition with the CS1.

DL has said that it wanted 100-110 seat planes. Boeing doesn't make those. If DL is successful in getting the scope redefined in that way, it's game over for the Boeing case, regardless of subsidies.

Of course, if DL converts any of its order to CS3, as it has some options to do, then Boeing may re-file and they will have to fight more on the substance of the subsidies and injury to Boeing.

lespoir

Adam, what you said makes sense to me. But I don't understand the last point, why Boeing may refile the complaint, if Delta Air converts its order to CS300. You mean only CS100 constitutes the non-competition aircraft?

Adam Smith

I believe the CS300's seating capacity is pretty close to the 737-700's.

If DL gets this first complaint dismissed because it says UA doesn't build aircraft that would have fulfilled its needs (100-110 seats), that argument won't necessarily hold water if the CS3 seats 135 and the 73G seats 140 or something along those lines.

jaysona

It's C Series, not C Series series.

It'll be quite a while before a CS500 is launched. The fuselage will be quite long and tail strikes will be a real issue. That said, no OEM seems better at stretching a platform than BBD.

Boeing has no platform currently in production that competes with the CS100.

The 737-700 is in line with the CS300, but the dearth of -700 orders seems to indicate that operators just don't seem to want that aircraft.

I had no idea that UA was an aircraft OEM.

The BCS3 seats between 130 in a typical two-class J/Y configuration, 150 in a typical Y configuration up to 160 in a high density Y configuration.

Adam Smith

Boeing may argue at the tribunal that the dearth of 73G orders is due to the subsidized BBD planes undercutting them in the market.

As for whether Boeing has anything that competes with the CS1, that depends on whether one accepts Boeing's definition of the relevant market as 100-150 seat planes or DL's response that it's 100-110.

We FTers may think that DL/BBD have a clear case here, but Boeing will undoubtedly find some "experts" with impressive-sounding credentials to support its case. Also, wasn't it not too long ago that Boeing and Bombardier were competing for orders at UA and the 73G prevailed due to massive discounting? Boeing will surely bring that up.

Let's also not forget that business logic and facts don't always matter in this type of dispute. After all, numerous independent panels have determined that Canadian softwood lumber is not unfairly subsidized, yet US lumber producers continue to find ways to get government officials to rule in their favour.

I'm not saying that I can predict the outcome, and if I were to bet on one side or the other, it would probably be BBD/DL, but it's not a sure thing.

Oops, yes, meant to be BA (for Boeing's stock ticker, not British Airways).

smallmj

I know it's wishful thinking, but isn't it AC's job to crush my dreams, not yours?

Of the 3 routes I suggested, YHZ-AMS might be most viable as a summer option. Canada 3000 used to run a much larger bird on the route. It was either a 757 or a A332, I don't recall. I also don't recall the frequency. KLM did it as a stop on the way to YOW or YYZ using a widebody (742/DC10/767 at different times).

YHZ already has flights to KEF, LHR, GLA, FRA, MUC, and DUB-CDG on various airlines.

The wish for east coasters is that a 110-130 seat plane that is cheap to run TATL would make more direct flights to western Europe viable. My wish is that they'd be viable on airlines that have acceptable seat pitch in Y (ie not Condor/ASL)

The Lev

Given that the US is judge, jury and executioner in this case, pretty sure I can predict the outcome.

This is one of Trump's key NAFTA renegotiation demands - no more neutral panels to decide trade case.

Adam Smith

Boeing may win, but don't forget a key difference between this case and things like softwood lumber: the consumer that would lose out of the US producer wins is not a disparate group with limited lobbying power. The consumer that would lose is DL, which has powerful government connections of its own and has a strong incentive to fight this case.

It could be argued they weren't much use anyway given the Americans' propensity to ignore them.

The Lev

Nice photo essay of the C-Series (Delta focus)...
http://www.businessinsider.com/delta...uter-inputs-29

Diabeetus

Thanks for sharing. Great photos and factoids in there.

I'm looking forward to the extra seat width and the quieter cabin. Hopefully AC will deploy these with increased frequency between YYC-YVR (though I suspect we'll be getting the 737 on this route).

Arcanum

Could be worse. Some of us are stuck with Q400s on 2h flights.

Stranger

United revisiting the 100 seats niche. After having switched the 737s it had ordered for that size last time to bigger models:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...-aircr-440455/

Diabeetus

Touché. Those and the DH's.

Stranger

But then, alternatives would be worse. Connecting somewhere, or driving?

yyz_atc_qq

I'm not sure the C Series will perform very well once they do the float conversion