Best time to purchase PHL-ORD-PHL for 6/26-6/29
Jan 13, 2008, 5:40 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: PHL
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Posts: 1,312
Best time to purchase PHL-ORD-PHL for 6/26-6/29
I'm looking to book PHL-ORD-PHL for 6/26 to 6/29. Right now, US seems to be cheapest, at about $252 all in. UA is already running >$300. I'd even be open to WN (MDW) but they are running close to $300 as well.
That said (I think I already know the answer), I'd be interested in what everyone thinks as to whether there is any realistic likelihood of getting a better fare, or should I just suck up and pay the $252 now? I'd actually rather fly UA, because they have more flight choices, but as noted, they are already running significantly more. I'll have no status after 2/28, so I don't care whether I fly US or UA.
With oil prices as high as they are, I only see fares going up, but maybe someone out there knows something I don't.
That said (I think I already know the answer), I'd be interested in what everyone thinks as to whether there is any realistic likelihood of getting a better fare, or should I just suck up and pay the $252 now? I'd actually rather fly UA, because they have more flight choices, but as noted, they are already running significantly more. I'll have no status after 2/28, so I don't care whether I fly US or UA.
With oil prices as high as they are, I only see fares going up, but maybe someone out there knows something I don't.
Jan 13, 2008, 6:09 pm
#2
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: PHL
Programs: US CP/AA EXP, HHonors Diamond, Marriott PLT, National Exec Elite, Avis 1st
Posts: 490
Have you checked AA? I fly them exclusively out of PHL these days, unless they do not fly to where I am going (for instance PHL-BOS).
Jan 13, 2008, 6:35 pm
#3
Join Date: May 2006
Programs: DL Diamond
Posts: 340
And seeing as how WN is running more expensive right now than US....I say book US. WN's fare structure is such that it starts with selling the cheap seats and then gets more expensive after each fare class sells out their seats. They don't do traditional revenue management like other airlines....their fares basically follow a low to high pattern at all times. So WN is not likely to get cheaper (especially because of the days you are flying). Since WN will not likely get cheaper, US, UA, and AA will not get cheaper either. As WN's fares go up....the rest of them will also go up. I say book ASAP!
Jan 13, 2008, 8:41 pm
#4
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: PHL
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Yes, they are in the same ballpark as US, and, cost being the same, I'd prefer to be on a *A carrier to earn miles. Still, thanks for the suggestion.
Jan 14, 2008, 7:02 am
#5
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: pittsburgh,pa,usa
Posts: 142
Set up a fare alert on Kayak.com and wait it out.
Jan 14, 2008, 7:07 am
#6
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Charleston, SC
Programs: UA 1P, CO Plat, MR Plat, SPG Plat, US Dirt
Posts: 1,506
I agree with this....it is 5 months early to book this since most Airtran fare deals only come up to a 60 day period.....I would wait until at least April to get the best possible fare.....If you were flying internationally, I'd say jump for it but domestically, there are lots of competitors that go to ORD/MDW and they will discount later. I would also set up a WN ding alert for MDW to see if US matches the ding fares into all Chicago airports.......so moral of the story-don't book now--too early!
Jan 14, 2008, 10:23 am
#7
Join Date: May 2006
Programs: DL Diamond
Posts: 340
A trip on Thursday and a Sunday are unlikely to get a ding...especially that time of year. WN mostly dings fares for travel on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays.
Jan 14, 2008, 10:43 am
#8
Moderator: American AAdvantage, Travel Safety/Security & Texas, FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: AUS / GRK
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Is this a 'must do' trip or a 'nice to do' trip?
If a 'must do' then buy when you see a price you can work with. This category would be if you are going for a specific event, such as a wedding, party, or whatever. You'd be completely devastated if you missed the trip, and are willing to sacrifice a little airfare so you make the trip.
If a 'nice to do' trip, then I'd wait. Generally prices get adjusted about 3 months out, up until 2 weeks out. Once you get inside the 2 week window, the fares tend to go up quickly. And it wouldn't be the end of the world if you don't make the trip at all.
Either way, I'd keep an eye on seat availability, if you see that go down substantially, you can pretty much assume fares will go up.
Much of my personal travel falls in the 'nice to do' category, and I usually don't book until a month before, sometimes less. However, last year I was traveling to PA for a family event so I bought about 2-3 months out, probably overpaid, but it was near a holiday so it was a sacrifice I was willing to make.
If a 'must do' then buy when you see a price you can work with. This category would be if you are going for a specific event, such as a wedding, party, or whatever. You'd be completely devastated if you missed the trip, and are willing to sacrifice a little airfare so you make the trip.
If a 'nice to do' trip, then I'd wait. Generally prices get adjusted about 3 months out, up until 2 weeks out. Once you get inside the 2 week window, the fares tend to go up quickly. And it wouldn't be the end of the world if you don't make the trip at all.
Either way, I'd keep an eye on seat availability, if you see that go down substantially, you can pretty much assume fares will go up.
Much of my personal travel falls in the 'nice to do' category, and I usually don't book until a month before, sometimes less. However, last year I was traveling to PA for a family event so I bought about 2-3 months out, probably overpaid, but it was near a holiday so it was a sacrifice I was willing to make.
Jan 14, 2008, 4:38 pm
#9
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: PHL
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Thanks to all for the input. We did end up buying the tickets on US. Interestingly enough, usairways.com did not have the lowest fare. We paid $252 on Expedia vs. $277 on usairways.com. It also seems that usairways.com has a $5 booking fee baked in, even though they don't readily disclose it.
Ultimately, the trip was fairly important, and we were using hotel points so were kind of locked in on dates. Realistically, I think that even if WN had a "deal" come up, it might be $225. All things considered, I think we did ok.
But, this was a far cry from August of '04 when I paid $159 round trip, all in. Of course, things are much different now.
Ultimately, the trip was fairly important, and we were using hotel points so were kind of locked in on dates. Realistically, I think that even if WN had a "deal" come up, it might be $225. All things considered, I think we did ok.
But, this was a far cry from August of '04 when I paid $159 round trip, all in. Of course, things are much different now.