We've cruised enough that we've heard it all (and dismissed 95% of it).

Let us know what you do after you pull the trigger...

In the end, Lucky's argument, combined with additional research, was the most persuassive. I called UA and found that for the outbound, they had sold 5 C seats and there were 2 people on the upgrade waitlist. For the return, they had sold 9 seats (or maybe it was 11 - I've already forgotten) and there were 5 1Ks on the waitlist. Saving over $4,000 with those odds just seemed like the right thing to do. Of course, if it doesn't clear, I may end up spending more than that apologizing to my wife...

Chuckle. Good luck to you; let us know how it turns out.

I think that is a correct decision and good fiscal planning on your part.

^ While I would have liked option B or C, I personally also would have booked A due to economical reasons. I can justify a $2200 Z-fare, not a $3500 Z-fare.

We've been on more than a few as well, and would never consider doing it. I tend to put a premium on safety factors/peace of mind, though, and getting time off is generally not an issue.

Good luck regardless.

It's all about risk tolerance and risk management.

Have any openings?

I've been checking NC availabilility like a hawk for the summer. As a side note, I have been quite despondent over the lack of NC availability that I've decided to change my European trip to April instead of the July; that way I know there is confirmable upgrade and the fares are a little cheaper.

But you should be okay using those SWU's. For once, SFO-FRA has opened NC=1 for May 1, 2009. If you look at Asia, the NC availability is wide open up to May 8th (with even some NC=9's!). The rolling window of opening appears to be the new MO. I have checked some of these loads with seatmap (yes, I know the imperfections of seatmap), but there are many flights to Asia that have 1 to 3 people in the entire business sections of the 747s! It is pretty incredible to see how empty many of these planes are.

Given the way things are slowly being released and given how bad this economy is (with businesses buying fewer business fares and vacationers being less able to pay for business class tickets), I would say your chances of getting that upgrade for your European vacation as a 1K is probably going to be okay.

I'm not truly worried. (Though I'm glad you edited your post - the original didn't make sense.)

If you booked this early, I assume the fares are quite high. They were around $1500, but then when I checked yesterday, the economy class tickets are now up to $2300! If they drop the fares to, say, $700 6 weeks before the trip, will you re-fare the ticket? If you've already confirmed your upgrade by then, I assume you will just do the re-fare by phone (using the double booking technique from the re-fare thread). Is this what you did (buy the ticket now, and wait to see if you need to re-fare as time gets closer)?

Still $1,640 for our dates. It's $2,300 for LH metal.

I'll refare even if they only drop $25 or so. There's no way they'll have an upgradeable fare of $700 in the summer.

Of course. I've had several cases where a fare dropped $200 one day, then went up $300 the next, so I check for refares daily (at least).

What do you think is a reasonable fare to pay for an upgradable fare to Europe from April to July? Isn't $1500 kinda high? I would think maybe $800-$1000, what do you think?

I think $1500-$1600 is pretty typical for summer travel. I paid $1620 two years ago.

I'd love it, but I have to say I think you're dreaming. It's rare to have upgradeable fares like that even in the winter - we paid around $1100-$1200 for October to CDG and February to BRU.

Just booked two upgradable fares for April--both confirmed in C in new UA 900 lie-flats. One was with miles, and it was $1700 SFO-PRG, and the other was with an SWU, SFO-BER (TXL) for $1500. It may be on the high side for April, but maybe with this economy, UA hurts most of all and they need to charge these high fares, especially with alll that hedged fuel from last year. I am glad to hear that you think this is a reasonable fare. I looked in February, and the lowest economy fares I saw were $925 on UA.