I've been checking NC availabilility like a hawk for the summer. As a side note, I have been quite despondent over the lack of NC availability that I've decided to change my European trip to April instead of the July; that way I know there is confirmable upgrade and the fares are a little cheaper.

But you should be okay using those SWU's. For once, SFO-FRA has opened NC=1 for May 1, 2009. If you look at Asia, the NC availability is wide open up to May 8th (with even some NC=9's!). The rolling window of opening appears to be the new MO. I have checked some of these loads with seatmap (yes, I know the imperfections of seatmap), but there are many flights to Asia that have 1 to 3 people in the entire business sections of the 747s! It is pretty incredible to see how empty many of these planes are.

Given the way things are slowly being released and given how bad this economy is (with businesses buying fewer business fares and vacationers being less able to pay for business class tickets), I would say your chances of getting that upgrade for your European vacation as a 1K is probably going to be okay.