Maybe...

Or maybe not...

Depend on AA, UA/CO will follow AA when AA does.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2317...ipt?part=qanda From the 3rd 1/4 conference call.

"Jenna Moreno – Houston Chronicle

How does holiday travel look right now and fares?

Jeff Smisek

We are seeing strong demand in holidays this year and we are enthused by the demand we are seeing.

Jim Compton

This is Jim. I would add to that. The bookings are strong (inaudible) I would actually say there is less sale activity this year versus last year. So given the strong demand we see, it looks like, at this point a very good holiday period."

Bolding added by myself. With strong demand, why subsidize costly perks, unless the competition does so in order to maintain share. I would assume that strong demand is not unique to UA, but rather systemic of the industry.

Wait, we're not having one in 2010???

maybe, maybe not, maybe, maybe not..........

Again, elites are not about today. They are about future bookings, over the next several years. How much the economy has cost in terms of frequent fliers, how that translates into projected revenue next year and beyond. They have to know they are losing lots of 1Ks this year. How will that reflect on loyalty, and revenue, in 2011, 2012? Can they afford to lose that loyalty, when they don't offer a product that by itself attracts high revenue customers?

My bet is AA will do promotions with the new routes out of LAX starting in April and offer "double your pleasure" something, so UA will follow with the route specific promo as well.

I am confident they will match whatever CO does.

Is it too early to speculate for 2012 yet?

What will happen to EQM when the Mayan calendar resets? Or maybe that should be its own thread...

What are some of the new AA routes?

Wirelessly posted (BlackBerry9700/5.0.0.405 Profile/MIDP-2.1 Configuration/CLDC-1.1 VendorID/102)

Seriously?

Starting it right now

Really? So if a current 1k doesn't fly enough to make 1K this year, then the perks of 1P, the corporate contracts, and the route structure will cause volumes of people to book away and start fresh with no status on another airline? Seems strange...I didn't fly enough to achieve top tier do to my own fault, so I will punish the airline for not giving me what I didn't earn and punish myself by starting fresh with someone that isn't as attractive as UA was when I started flying them...especially now that they have an even more robust network than they did before.

I guess some narrow minded people might think that way, I doubt the bulk of flyers blame the airline for them not qualifying for top tier, so much that they start fresh with no status elsewhere on a smaller airline with less choices, and one that didn't offer DEQM this year either.

A fresh start elsewhere would also orphan their miles. While diversification is nice, the big ticket rewards come mostly with big mileage prices, and orphaned miles don't pay the bills as much as growing miles. But hey, we can try to put the fear into UA to give us more things with the implication that they will lose their entire customer base if they don't cave. I'm sure that will work.

Most truly high yield customers buy more on route/schedule/contract, then on price, before looking at if they can get DEQM. It's like the Hotels.com ad currently running. One guy wants to stay at his hotel that he is a member of a loyalty program, his friend asks how far out of the way it is. They end up not going there. The frugal traveler may be more motivated by a perk, the high yield guy is less concerned about that, than the product he is buying and how to maximize his time and efficiency. WHile FT may have many high yield travelers that also play the loyalty game to it's fullest, you need to look at the motivations of the demographics for who you mention, the high yield frequent flyer, not the status seeking frequent frugal flyer. Both populations contribute to the bottom line, but one is more desirable of a customer than the other.