WineCountryUA

It feels like UA would really prefer not to have the A359s at all, the question is does UA want the 777X instead or at all.

the 789 and A359/777x are two different aircraft markets.

In the end, UA may prefer the 777X but there are a number of huddles and the market needs is not so great at the moment.

travelinmanS

I think business travel will have fully recovered when the flight you chose for your FT handle goes back to double daily. So basically year 2025 if ever. UA ain’t ordering any long haul aircraft.

uastarflyer

They knew E+

Specific to your question, a good deal. Buying and adding 773 was a comparatively spontaneous decision after all. Smisek wasn’t eyeing going bigger, he was trying to CRJ HKG-SIN…and then suddenly….

UA_Flyer

Regarding business travel get back to normal (pre Covid 19), my pre Covid 400K BIS will never return. In fact, I'd be lucky to get 200K BIS a year.
My industry/profession has evolved and the emergence of innovation and technology have made us realized travel has been excessive in the past.

This is not to say all industry/profession experience the same change. People interaction is still important to do businesses, but cost/effectiveness/efficiency may still create uncertainty to travel pattern.

I am sure some of cancellations on 777X were made with uncertainty of future business travel in mind, and all the talks about UA may get 777X at huge discount are so premature. Boeing is still a for profit business last I checked. It is not going to sell planes so airlines can take advantage of the company. Boeing shareholders are not going to stand for that.

ORDnHKG

You must have a short term memory that the RR Trent 1000 problems that caused all RR 787 grounded 3 years ago and lasted more than a year, which led to Norwegian completely gone from long haul flying and returned ALL 787 since they use RR, which also caused future 787 orders from NZ and NH switched away from RR to GEnx
Nope, all NH's 787 are RR Trent 1000, only future orders are GEnx and it is because they had enough with RR, how much money they lost on the groundings with thousands cancellations.


what vaccinations in sight ? Don't you watch the news ? Vaccinations had been slow down to almost a stand still, 75% of those unvaccinated already said they are not going to get vaccinated, with huge jump in new cases in those states with low vaccination rates, even LA county alone is reporting 2000 new daily cases, thats why they put mask mandate back on indoors. The vaccinated population is even much lower in Asia, with many Asian countries are not even at 30%, most business travel are to Asia and none of the Asia countries will reopen anytime soon
UA's large order is to replace existing planes, are you aware there are many 737NG that are already over 20 years old, and some A320 are close to 30 years old ???

Last but not least, SQ had shifted EWR-SIN to JFK instead, and using regular A350 instead of premium heavy A350ULR, as there are practically zero business travelers as the country is close, it is primarily for cargo purposes rather than what you claimed for quick recover for business travel
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UA857

Taking the A359 off the table here is how a future widebody fleet of UA would look like.

779 replaces 744
77W/789/78J replaces 77G/77E
788/NMA replaces 763/764/753
A321neo/XLR replaces 752

IMO, UA should convert the A359 order to 30 779s and to keep RR happy order 20 788s to replace there 20 1991-1993 build 763s.

lj1k

UA has publicly stated they don’t need aircrafts the size of 744, and the 77W is the replacement for 744.

Not sure why UA need to keep RR happy. UA should make customers happy as the priority. Conversely, it is RR who should make airlines happy. Airlines are the customers! Check with NH on their RR happiness index!

WineCountryUA

UA has a major contractual agreement to provide engines for the A359s it committed to. While UA may be able to get out of the A359 delays with a purchase of other Airbus aircraft (such as A321s), it does not have an inexpensive exit clause for the RR engines. The 789s would be an option with many negatives (fleet diversity, poor RR history on 789s, ...). However other options are no clear.

UA857

In a 2019 like environment UA would use the 77W/789/A359 as a 744 replacement. However in the current environment Boeing has struggled to sell the 779 due to cancellations from foreign airlines (e.g. EK, EY, CX). If UA makes an order for up to 30 779s it will provide a lifeline for the 77X program and would allow UA to expand their capacity beyond their pre-COVID plans.

UA857

Can UA convert the A359 order into 20 RR 788s?

WineCountryUA

No
A359 order is with Airbus and doubt that works for Airbus without some alternative Airbus order

The A359 engine order, a separate order, is with RR and it would be a matter of negotiations if RR/UA could come to an agreement to switch the order to 787 engines from RR -- possible but .... And it would require UA has an order for 787s without an existing engine order.

So within the realm of speculation, yes ... does it make good business sense to all, that is above my pay grade.

UA857

UA just ordered the A321neo so the order for Airbus is dealt with. To deal with the RR contract without introducing a new type, order the RR 788. It is OK for UA to operate an existing type of aircraft with a new engine. NW/DL originally ordered A330s with P&W engines. However in 2013 DL ordered 10 additional A333s with GE engines.

WineCountryUA

There was no public statement that the A321 order replaced the A359. The lack of that reference was noted in "United Next", UA announces purchase of 200 Boeing 737 Max and 70 Airbus A321 Neo
(However any public statement could trigger a RR reaction)

That maybe a solution but the issues with that have been repeatedly pointed out and no need to repeat here.

PsiFighter37

Maybe there are particular missions where UA could use the 777X (e.g. similar to how NH uses their A380s for solely NRT-HNL service), but I am not sure UA sees the value (or there is value) to having a small subfleet of a plane that would serve purely high-density routes. Even in the current era of huge leisure demand to domestic destinations, I think one would be hard-pressed to say what route UA would fill multiple 779s to make it worth their while.

As for the A359 - I really do think UA has made a mistake by not incorporating them into their fleet planning. If they feel like they are never going to take delivery of them, they are going to have to bite the bullet at some point and frankly should have done so pre-pandemic, when their finances allowed for it. Perhaps they are waiting out the current Airbus CEO, who has apparently gained a reputation for being a stickler in making airlines take delivery of aircraft they ordered.

entropy

The 744s are long gone and "replaced" ; the oldest 772 are what, ~25 years old? they have time left and are still perfectly fine aircraft, those will be replaced by 789/J but not for several years.
They've already said the 321 is replacing the 752.

I don't see how UA could "convert" an airbus order to a Boeing one.

Given how poorly the 77X program is progressing, and how new the 77W/787 fleet is, how B will just bend over for the sake of selling frames. There needs to be a digestion of all the retiring 767's, and then first gen 777 into freighters before the 779 is ready. Not to mention the pandemic probably taught the airlines they can leave some money on the table for the sake of greater efficiency... Why struggle to fill a 779 when you can make a higher yield on a 789.