Could COVID be UA’s opportunity to order the 777X?
 

Obviously all the airlines have been hurting, but if an airline like EY or even CX are going to cancel their 77X orders, is there a once in a lifetime opportunity to make a 77X order? I’m sure UA will receive step discounts. If air travel returns to pre-COVID patterns I could see UA converting their 45 A359s into 30 779s. The 779 would be a great fit for SFO-NRT/ICN/PEK/PVG/TPE/HKG/DEL/SIN/SYD/AKL/LHR/FRA/TLV and EWR-NRT/PEK/PVG/HKG/TLV/DEL/BOM/JNB where space is limited and where these are routes that require the 779s range/capacity/performance.

As for their RR contract, how about converting their remaining 787s or order to the RR variant so they operate a simplified fleet consisting of NMA/788/789/78J/77W/779s. The 77E doesn’t have to have a 1:1 replacement and adding the A359 or A35J is introducing a new type with no real value that requires additional pilot training. So for replacing the 77E on TPAC routes, the 77W would be a better capacity upgrade. Or the 789 would be a better capacity downgrade.

None of the airlines are going to do anything with long-range aircraft until they see what premium traffic (read: business travel) does. I'm pretty sure companies have found out what they can still accomplish with slashed travel. When business travel rebounds, I think companies are going to be a bit more selective as to who travels and for what purposes - it's not going to provide the growth projections for airlines to commit to expensive new a/c. Delta is moving away from new a/c orders and reverting to their "buy used" heritage. There's no shortage of underutilized long-range aircraft now (including near-term deliveries) or for the foreseeable future.

Ummm? You sure? With the vaccinations in sight couldn’t we see a quicker recover in business travel? Several airlines have already relaunched some premium-heavy routes e.g. UA’s JFK-SFO/LAX and SQ’s EWR-SIN. UA just ordered 150 3JMs and 70 A321Ns meaning that air travel will rebound in around 2023.

But given all that, UA just https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unit...-a321-neo.html. The CAPEX budget is well commitment for many years into the future. Note the lack of mention of 777X or any super capacity aircraft.

Additionally, Airbus and RR (for the engines) are not likely to release UA from their commitment to buy Boeing / GE. And adding more fleet variants is not the way UA is going, it is looking to simplify its fleet. And has made contractary agreements for those 789 engines.

And finally, 777X has been continuously slipping schedule. The latest bing FAA concerns with the aircraft. So between that and post-COVID traffic levels many carriers are backing off from 777X

Ummm? UA just ordered so 70 A321neos so to keep RR commitment why not convert their remaining 787 on order to the RR variant.

the A321a are replacing multiple types of retiring aircraft -- simplification.
Adding a different engine to the 789s increase variants

I’m talking about the 78Js currently on order? Also ANA flies 787s with RR and GE engines.

That are two varients -- need to stock twice as many spare engines / engine parts / training / ....

Can UA do it but do they want to.
And it may be sometime before that change in RR order could take place

Suggesting UA go in a different direction than it and its competitor are signaling would be an odd decision.

Once in a lifetime? I don’t think so. They can order them anytime they want to.

Or buy used.

David

A recovery in business travel IS in sight. That DOES NOT mean companies will return to the SAME levels of travel. I know companies in Houston that have already decided to cut back on numbers and frequencies of people traveling internationally PERMANANTLY. Technology had rendered a lot of oil and gas travel unnecessary and the COVID period has only accelerated adoption of remote operations monitoring, meetings, etc. I like to travel and I could already see the writing on the wall back in 2012 - remote work and communications just wasn't being institutionalized to the extent it could be. After the last 18 months, it is now. Managers are going to be harder pressed now to justify $20k to send a couple of people to a partner meeting in Europe when they've been doing fine w/ Zoom or whatever for the last 18 months. I'm pretty sure if I was still working, a good percentage of my travel would be permanently slashed (much to my chagrin). There will be people still traveling, but I think recovery to pre-pandemic level will take years - and it be driven by industry growth going forward, not a return to pre-Covid status quo. Anyone who thinks we'll be at the same level of int'l business travel by next year or the year after isn't very well connected to reality.

That will not be a 777X issue as it will not be flying next year or the year after .... maybe 2025?

I’m not understanding. Why would it make sense for UA to buy aircraft that other airlines don’t think the travel market needs? I can’t imagine UA knows something the other airlines don’t know.

If UA has to buy a number of RR engines, isn't it simpler to put them on a 789 than to put them on a A359? For the former it's just a different engine. For the latter it's a whole different plane (and engine).

Yes, but I bet all the airlines are trying to project what post-Covid business travel would look like in 5-10 years to make a decision on such an order.