TA

I'm sending 2 friends to their wedding later in the summer on an award biz ticket, and of course tried to put them on the nicer 77W service via FRA instead of 789 via MUC. (btw, FRA just changed to 77W recently).

However, looking at history of these 2 flights, it seems that SFO-FRA about 1/week gets delayed by up to 1 hour, which is troublesome for missing the onward connection in Europe. While on the other hand SFO-MUC almost never gets delayed. I'm not sure whether it has to do with the equipment, or if the turnaround / where the plane is coming from leaves less time to do maintenance?

SFO-FRA: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL58/history
SFO-MUC: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL194/history

I'm going to stick with the SFO-FRA 77W since the business class is much nicer, but am a little nervous about incoveniencing them if it keeps on showing this kind of pattern.

Does anyone have any suggestions on how to bet here?
Thanks!

WineCountryUA

How deep into the history did you look? just looking at 2 weeks is a fairly limited view. Appears the UA58 just had one significant delay in June.

That said, the SFO-MUC ontime has been good in June & July, with a few 30+min arrival delays.

And going back further may further diminish the difference

In either case, I would look for 2 hours connections to the final location for arrival is important, otherwise 90 minutes would give you >90% .

A free basic membership to flight aware gives you access to more history (up to 3? months)

TA

Actually I do have much more of the history (you have to sign into FlightAware) and I attach it here. The issue is that SFO-FRA only exists as 77W service since Jul 1...

WineCountryUA

Actually it has been a variety of 77xs -77W, 773, 772. But such limited data is too limited to draw any real conclusion

A while back there was a discussion about fleet reliability -- believe the data showed there wasn't that much difference -- all longhual fleet types were 94%+-2% for A60. The thread started with concerns on 787 reliability. UA likely has internal benchmarks and if any part of the fleet were to drop below the target levels, UA would correct the situation.

As the data also showed the departure airport had bigger spread.

Bottom line I would not worry about the aircraft type, there are other issues such as SFO fog in the summer to worry about.

TA

Thanks!

Miles Ahead

I would not be thinking about whether one flight is marginally more reliable than the other. I'd be thinking "If the flight ends up delayed, where do I have the most options from?"

Infinite1K

Agreed.

Also, I think transferring at MUC is faster/easier than at FRA. So I would consider that as well as options for misconnects.

Just because historically a flight or particular aircraft type has been reliable, does not mean that on your specific flight you won’t experience some issue (mechanical, weather, etc.). Rather you want to have a good plan for the “what if” something goes wrong.

roesner

Munich is currently only using one terminal so transfers are really painless. Frankfurt is always a zoo....
(disclaimer: I detest FRA....)

What is the final destination?

rj_flyer

I second the FRA mess, if our office wasn't located literally at the airport I'd be at Munich all day.

TA

Final destination FCO -- which currently only has 2-3 flights per day spaced apart by like 5 hours... from either FRA or MUC

fatlasercat

Like others, I am a big fan of MUC over FRA.
An additional factor to consider is that the 789 might be swapped to Polaris config, so if seat assignments are important (e.g. sitting next to each other), you have to babysit the reservation.

mathgeek1978

My wife and I actually prefer the 789 J configuration, that we are so much closer to each other. I don't know which configuration the soon to be newly weds prefer. If it's up to me I would show them the seat maps and ask them which one do they prefer. Note that on the 77W some seats are not couple friendly at all -- unless they don't want to see each other before the wedding.

mmack

My husband and I always like to sit together. The Polaris configuration can be very weird, the even number seats at the window are awkward, and some seats don’t have windows

halls120

This. x1000

djmp

Looks like SFO-MUC gets new Polaris config on the 789 from 10/30/2021 if you’re still looking.
MUC is a great airport to connect through, FRA not so much,