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-   -   B737MAX Recertification - Archive (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united-airlines-mileageplus/2031779-b737max-recertification-archive.html)

JimInOhio Dec 19, 2019 7:03 am

We've now exceeded 200 posts per grounded UA aircraft. Congratulation FT!

dilanesp Dec 19, 2019 7:48 am


Originally Posted by YuropFlyer (Post 31856176)
So the last ever NG was delivered today to KLM. No more MAX in production for the moment. First time Boeing stopped 737 altogether.

Good riddance!

ExplorerWannabe Dec 19, 2019 9:54 am


Originally Posted by djmp (Post 31855168)
To clarify, you mean Max related fatalities, correct? 83% of Max deliveries went to non-US carriers so the US had little exposure.

The number of deliveries is irrelevant. If you want to measure risk, this should be accidents or fatalities per flight or per flight-mile or per passenger-mile. I really don't know what the delta is for this -- I'm sure the numbers are available for calculation -- but the fact of zero accidents of this nature when flown by US pilots or by companies with stricter training standards does stand out. Were there just comparatively fewer flights/flight hours/flight miles so there wasn't as much opportunity for problems to arise or was it that the problems that arose never became problems for trained and experienced pilots?

MCAS appears to have made a bad problem worse but the facts are 1) the flights were already in trouble before MCAS became an issue, 2) the pilots did NOT follow proper procedure for runaway trim, 3) following decades-old procedures for runaway trim would have rendered MCAS moot.

Even if you accept Airbus's central design premise of engineering for the plane to essentially fly itself while the pilot is just there to assist in take-offs and landings versus Boeing's traditional premise of designing for pilots, we should be concerned about the pilots being overwhelmed and exceeding the flight envelope at take-off.

DenverBrian Dec 19, 2019 10:03 am


Originally Posted by ExplorerWannabe (Post 31856862)
The number of deliveries is irrelevant. If you want to measure risk, this should be accidents or fatalities per flight or per flight-mile or per passenger-mile. I really don't know what the delta is for this -- I'm sure the numbers are available for calculation -- but the fact of zero accidents of this nature when flown by US pilots or by companies with stricter training standards does stand out.

Well, there were zero accidents of this nature OF ANY KIND, INVOLVING ANY AIRCRAFT over the past 10 years when flown by US pilots. So the standard is very, very high. That's why two accidents, anywhere in the world, involving the same plane model, within 10 months of each other, is so unnerving.

Success in safety inevitably begets ever-higher expectations. The expectation among most passengers these days is that planes don't crash. Ever.

st3 Dec 19, 2019 10:09 am


Originally Posted by djmp (Post 31855168)
To clarify, you mean Max related fatalities, correct? 83% of Max deliveries went to non-US carriers so the US had little exposure.

At the time of the grounding I believe WN was the largest single operator and AA was #3 . I would call that relevant information.

moondog Dec 19, 2019 10:10 am


Originally Posted by ExplorerWannabe (Post 31856862)
MCAS appears to have made a bad problem worse but the facts are 1) the flights were already in trouble before MCAS became an issue, 2) the pilots did NOT follow proper procedure for runaway trim, 3) following decades-old procedures for runaway trim would have rendered MCAS moot..

I am often forced to fly bad airlines that have bad pilots. As such, I hope that we are flying on planes that don't require expert "airmanship" in order to prevent disasters.

bocastephen Dec 19, 2019 10:16 am


Originally Posted by DenverBrian (Post 31856893)
Well, there were zero accidents of this nature OF ANY KIND, INVOLVING ANY AIRCRAFT over the past 10 years when flown by US pilots. So the standard is very, very high. That's why two accidents, anywhere in the world, involving the same plane model, within 10 months of each other, is so unnerving.

Success in safety inevitably begets ever-higher expectations. The expectation among most passengers these days is that planes don't crash. Ever.

You're forgetting the Colgan disaster just because it's a few months outside of 10yrs? A horrific accident due solely to the blatant incompetence and lack of training and experience of US pilots?

ExplorerWannabe Dec 19, 2019 10:17 am


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 31856913)
I am often forced to fly bad airlines that have bad pilots. As such, I hope that we are flying on planes that don't require expert "airmanship" in order to prevent disasters.

Is knowing a decades-old procedure supposed to be "expert"? Is turning the manual trim wheel in the correct direction supposed to be expert? The two flights in question appear to have already been in trouble before MCAS was activated.

televisor Dec 19, 2019 10:17 am


Originally Posted by DenverBrian (Post 31856893)
Well, there were zero accidents of this nature OF ANY KIND, INVOLVING ANY AIRCRAFT over the past 10 years when flown by US pilots.

Luckily they manage to stop those US pilots who are drunk well before they start the plane. Often outside the US.

cmd320 Dec 19, 2019 10:19 am


Originally Posted by ExplorerWannabe (Post 31856937)
The two flights in question appear to have already been in trouble before MCAS was activated.

Based on what?

fly18725 Dec 19, 2019 10:22 am


Originally Posted by cmd320 (Post 31856946)
Based on what?

The accident reports.

dilanesp Dec 19, 2019 10:22 am


The number of deliveries is irrelevant. If you want to measure risk, this should be accidents or fatalities per flight or per flight-mile or per passenger-mile.
You definitely don't want to measure it by flight-mile or passenger-mile. Deaths on a longhaul flight are equally bad as deaths on a shorthaul flight.

JimInOhio Dec 19, 2019 10:28 am


Originally Posted by ExplorerWannabe (Post 31856862)
The number of deliveries is irrelevant. If you want to measure risk, this should be accidents or fatalities per flight or per flight-mile or per passenger-mile. I really don't know what the delta is for this -- I'm sure the numbers are available for calculation -- but the fact of zero accidents of this nature when flown by US pilots or by companies with stricter training standards does stand out. Were there just comparatively fewer flights/flight hours/flight miles so there wasn't as much opportunity for problems to arise or was it that the problems that arose never became problems for trained and experienced pilots?

MCAS appears to have made a bad problem worse but the facts are 1) the flights were already in trouble before MCAS became an issue, 2) the pilots did NOT follow proper procedure for runaway trim, 3) following decades-old procedures for runaway trim would have rendered MCAS moot.

Even if you accept Airbus's central design premise of engineering for the plane to essentially fly itself while the pilot is just there to assist in take-offs and landings versus Boeing's traditional premise of designing for pilots, we should be concerned about the pilots being overwhelmed and exceeding the flight envelope at take-off.

The facts are never that simple and there certainly are many more than you've listed. One thing I think we know is that there never had been a runaway trim of this type before... one where the computer keeps activating it (radically) over and over. At least none that's been mentioned. So it might be that procedures can deal with this type of event but if the event is totally new then it adds a whole other dimension, especially when Boeing didn't really tell anyone about this "feature" beforehand (in the case of the Lion Air crash).

cmd320 Dec 19, 2019 10:30 am


Originally Posted by fly18725 (Post 31856960)
The accident reports.

I haven't seen anything about either accident to indicate that had MCAS not been fitted to the aircraft they would still have crashed.

spin88 Dec 19, 2019 10:57 am


Originally Posted by cmd320 (Post 31857005)
I haven't seen anything about either accident to indicate that had MCAS not been fitted to the aircraft they would still have crashed.

Nor will you. Nothing anywhere says that. The debate is about when the MCAS system created a deadly situation if the pilots should have (a) figure out it was the MCAS system, and (b) fixed the issue by the runaway trim procedure. The question is if the pilots should have reasonably have been expected to resolve the issue created by MCAS.

I don't have a strong view on this, other than to say that if it was as simply as some suggest, then after two MCAS system crashes - and every 737 pilot being well aware of the issue, their ought to be no reason to change the plane, right? It is safe to fly today, as is.

The fact that no one in any possition of authority, not even (at this point, it was their earlier view) Boeing, is making that arguement.

And of course, the FAA found other issues with the planes computer systems in testing in June of 2019.


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