UA vs NW

I did the last non-stop UA857 SFO-PVG on November 20 (lucky me as UA857 was cancelled on November 21 and 22, then it became SFO-ICN-PVG); the flight was full to limit (75% of the capacity) but I still managed to have row 36JKL to myself. On the way back on January 4, UA858 was pretty empty with 51 passengers onboard and I also had a whole row to myself. The stop in ICN was very short and quick - the replacement crew got onboard within minutes of the door being opened and no catering or cleaning service was provided during the layover; we ended up leaving earlier than scheduled departure time though we arrived ICN late.

A bottle of water was provided after taking off from PVG. A light breakfast was provided after taking off from ICN and a full dinner was provided upon arriving at SFO. China Eastern at PVG was the catering provider.

Since you can almost guarantee a full row to yourself, I am not sure if it is worth the points/miles upgrade; but if it is challenging to use the PlusPoints before expiration date, I guess it is then worth it.

Beverage after taking off from PVG

Light breakfast after taking off from ICN

Full dinner prior to arrive at SFO

kb1992

This is UA 857 SFO-PVG today (12/22) with a stop at ICN to change crew.

Biz Class was showing 29 booked, and 29 blocked. There were 35 people on upgrade list.

After it took off, the seat map shows 55/60 occupied. No info was given how many cleared upgrade.

Could anyone tell me what happened? Why did UA block so many J seats?






Same story for UA 857 on Friday, 12/24. Total: 21+ 35 blocked. There are 16 people on upgrade list. See above.

What's going on?

MBS MillionMiler

Simple: Coach was overbooked by 29-ish. (I’m this case, not every seat was sold, but with capacity restrictions, they keep selling Y beyond capacity, usually up to the collective number of seats across the entire aircraft). Happens daily on many, many flights; domestic and international.

They’ll eventually clear the upgrade list, freeing up seats in Y. Because of reduced capacity on these examples, they won’t need to move anyone up, but on full flights where Y capacity is exceeded, they’ll then start upgrading by status or other metrics to get everyone a seat somewhere on the plane.

runner450

Economy capacity shouldn’t be exceeded, so not planning any operational upgrades. The holds are floating amounts in order to take bookings without busting the entry limits from China.

kb1992

I totally disagree with the notion that Y was oversold.

The flight took off with more than 100 empty Y seats.

In fact, UA never oversells China flights since COVID. There is a capacity control by the Chinese authority (80% or something).

Yes, this is possible.

However, I am still puzzled by UA's fuzzy "Blocking" practice. What purpose does this serve?

China doesn't care "blocking" or not. Only the final number counts.

MBS MillionMiler

For round number purposes, say United can fly 200 people to China a day (I believe the actual number is tied to aircraft capacity)…They surely offer all 60 business class seats for sale on the aircraft, leaving 140 PP/Y seats for sale. As the flight gets closer, they release more Y seats because those are selling, but J isn’t on these days. Each time they add more Y inventory (and subsequently sell it), they take away from the J inventory, essentially blocking off another J sale. Y is still under capacity, as is J, and when they sell the seat, the person (count) increases, but not beyond the capacity of Y.

The second flight you reference on the 24th…For sale right now, it shows J2 and Y1 left for sale. If I bought a Y seat now, J would also reduce by 1, and add another “blocked” to the list. There are a ton of J seat open, but they’ll only sell 2 more. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…

runner450

The response above is pretty insightful, but just to clarify, the blocking (or held) seats is just math to keep total bookings < 75% of total aircraft capacity.

kb1992

Thanks for the replies. This is very useful.

Given that J is wide open on UA 857, Dec. 24, shall we expect that all waitlisted pax would eventually clear the upgrades?

I noticed that UA never releases any upgrade inventory, PZ or PN on UA 857/858. Everything goes to the gate.

This is very annoying. Maybe it's just the China flights.

Maybe they save few pennies for lounges since you can't go to the lounge before you have a J BP.

Is it possible that the system won't clear the upgrades at the gate and leave the plane off with empty J seats?

MBS MillionMiler

The wiki at the top of each page in this thread, albeit brief, sheds some light on the reasons and the outcomes. And whomever posted this is spot on: "Generally, this is good news for those on the upgrade list and a possible chance of Op-ups for some." Indeed, based on the flight metrics at the moment, everyone on the UG list will clear. If Y was full (from a physical capacity standpoint), they would them op-up some folks to J. Not the case here, because of capacity limits. Thanks runner450 for clarifying that it's 75% now (I knew it was a certain percent, but didn't say as I didn't know, and news articles were mixed on the current capacity % of any given aircraft).

As for holding back upgrades; It's always been a 'thing' but especially on flights with such limited capacity--I think China is among the most tightly restricted in the world right now. They should/could probably clear a dozen or two for the 12/24 flight, but that's not their thing right now--probably 8 or 4 hours before departure, and perhaps just at the gate. Maybe it's been demonstrated that X amount of people, on average by J class tix a day or two before. I don't know specifically why, but look for this to continue especially to China--mostly because of the very limited capacity to China, not just on UA but across all airlines (I believe the current 75% capacity limit even applies to China-flagged carriers). However, I doubt this is a scenario where they don't clear people in advance to keep them out of lounges--but I wouldn't put past them the more I think about it.

As for your final question, with almost certainty, they will clear everyone before departure. Not to scare you, but with UA, anything can happen!

kb1992

Final observation on UA 857, Dec. 24. today.

At T-6, it showed 20 booked, 35 blocked. 24 people were on upgrade list. Total capacity is 60.

30 min before take off, it showed J was full. UA doesn't release upgraded pax names except 2 upgraded at the gate so I can't compare against the upgrade list I saved.

However, final seat map shows 17 empty J seats. So all 24 people on upgrade list cleared at the gate.

Since 60-20-24 = 16, it matches the final seat map near perfectly, considering no shows.

You are very insightful. I learned something new.

blug

Today's UA857 (SFO-ICN-PVG), before the flight closed, the seat map showed about 35 Polaris seats blocked, with 20+ people on the upgrade list.
The flight took off with only 2 cleared, and 17 empty Polaris seats.
The same flight on the next two days are showing 36 and 40 Polaris seats being blocked.
What could be the reason for this?

prestonh

China’s so-called Five One policy essentially limits airlines to just one international flight a week, while passenger capacity is capped at 75%. Foreign carriers can also operate only one flight a week to China.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news...022/ar-AAO18jk

dw

Understand that passenger numbers are capped but do those caps actually go so far as to impose limitations on how passengers are spread across different cabins?

prestonh

If ua is only running limited ops the is likely to have quite a bit of nrps held back for positioning that would likely not be needed under regular ops.

kb1992

Actually UA runs 4 weekly flights to SFO to Shanghai, so does DL. on DTW/SEA-PVG.

It was the result of hard line approach by the DOT earlier this year. China made an exception for the US on so called 5-1 policy.

For observation purpose, UA 857 status shows

Dec. 25: 22 booked + 36 blocked 23 people on upgrade list and would all get cleared at the gate.
My projection: plane takes off with about 15 empty J seats
.
Dec. 26 Full. In this case, I suspect that booked + blocked = 60.
Since only 13/60 J seats are occupied, this probably means roughly 15 booked + 45 blocked.
34 people on upgrade list and would likely all get upgraded.
My projection: plane takes off with about 10 empty J seats.