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Old May 20, 2020, 12:11 pm
  #16  
 
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Originally Posted by Vulcan
I thought Kirby was more like a politician the way he danced around tough questions. Like his answer about blocking middle seats. His answer that they would contact passengers and give them an option to change flights if the middle seat(s) were being filled on their flight. Big deal! So my now one non-stop flight a day TPA-EWR will have middle seats filled and I can change to tomorrow (might be the same situation) or I could spend 10 hours going via IAH-ORD one way, any of those flights also might being in the same situation. (I get to IAH and the ORD flight has full middle seats-so I'm trapped). This is a response by UA that just does not work.
<rant off>
While many may not like it, no airline can fly profitably at 60% loads (which is what you get with all middle seats blocked). Empty middle seats is nothing more than psychology because the person RIGHT behind you can sneeze or exhale right into you very easily. Bottom line - if you are a germaphobe, don't or can't get sick, or think that the world should carry on forever with everyone 6 feet apart, well then you shouldn't be flying period!
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Old May 20, 2020, 12:14 pm
  #17  
 
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Originally Posted by glbltvlr
Kirby just did an interview on CNBC. My notes:

- Seeing pent up demand for both business and leisure travel
- Mid April was bottom, was 10,000 customers then, 35,000 now
- Putting 30-40 larger aircraft on each day to address demand and distancing. Notifying customers of 70%+ load factors, offering free changes
- More important to get customers with need to travel accommodated rather than block seats
- Not expecting major price increases. Expects increased efficiency to offset increased costs.
- UA is flying 40 cargo only flights a day
- Prefers to keep employees on part time vs. layoff so as not to lose knowledge when recovery comes. Pilot and FA unions have to decide whether to reduce line minimums.
I watched the replay a couple of times as I had not seen Kirby speak before, I thought it was as balanced as it could be given that there is no clear visibility domestically or internationally what may happen in the virus cycle and government responses.I am not sure how they forecast the pent up demand element particularly for leisure travel as nobody I know has any enthusiasm to get on a holiday flight at the moment, business travel will wind up based on currently evolving travel policies.I really hope they can work out something for the people but suspect that might have to be a modus operandi that lasts 2-3 years.
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Old May 20, 2020, 12:16 pm
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Did he address the refunds issue? I wonder if he expects customers to return to an airline that has made clear its desire to cheat customers out of their money.
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Old May 20, 2020, 12:49 pm
  #19  
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Originally Posted by goodeats21
If United involves an indirect routing, long layover, and/or crowded planes, then I am more inclined to spend the day driving instead.
If you are doing a trip of < 500m or so -- e.g. a day's drive -- I don't know why you wouldn't opt for driving over flying, given the latter's current health risks and hassle factors. Regardless of the air option's routing or layover time.
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Old May 20, 2020, 12:56 pm
  #20  
 
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Originally Posted by BearX220
If you are doing a trip of < 500m or so -- e.g. a day's drive -- I don't know why you wouldn't opt for driving over flying, given the latter's current health risks and hassle factors. Regardless of the air option's routing or layover time.
While you may not get Corona from driving alone - the odds are far higher of getting into a fatal accident driving versus flying.
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Old May 20, 2020, 1:15 pm
  #21  
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Originally Posted by BearX220
If you are doing a trip of < 500m or so -- e.g. a day's drive -- I don't know why you wouldn't opt for driving over flying, given the latter's current health risks and hassle factors. Regardless of the air option's routing or layover time.
Driving JAX-ATL about 350 miles say about 5 hours. Jax-ATL flying on DL about 45 minutes. That's why. Oh, and let's not forget the return trip to get home!
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Old May 20, 2020, 1:38 pm
  #22  
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Originally Posted by BearX220
If you are doing a trip of < 500m or so -- e.g. a day's drive -- I don't know why you wouldn't opt for driving over flying, given the latter's current health risks and hassle factors. Regardless of the air option's routing or layover time.
This likely trip is about 575 miles. So over a full day of driving. Under a normal schedule, that is a less then 2 hour direct flight.
So that is kind of my point. If United wants to bring customers back, the current schedule of cramped, non-direct flights isn't the way to do it.
I detest long-haul driving, and find it exhausting. But the fact I am considering it shows how unappealing I find the United option.
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Old May 20, 2020, 2:17 pm
  #23  
 
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Originally Posted by BearX220
If you are doing a trip of < 500m or so -- e.g. a day's drive -- I don't know why you wouldn't opt for driving over flying, given the latter's current health risks and hassle factors. Regardless of the air option's routing or layover time.
Agreed ,sub 500 in todays world is almost a no brainer
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Old May 20, 2020, 2:26 pm
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Originally Posted by goodeats21
This likely trip is about 575 miles. So over a full day of driving. Under a normal schedule, that is a less then 2 hour direct flight.
So that is kind of my point. If United wants to bring customers back, the current schedule of cramped, non-direct flights isn't the way to do it.
I detest long-haul driving, and find it exhausting. But the fact I am considering it shows how unappealing I find the United option.
UA can increase capacity all it wants, it won't fill it. The demand is not there not because the supply isn't there, but the other way around.
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Old May 20, 2020, 2:30 pm
  #25  
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Originally Posted by wanderingkev
Agreed ,sub 500 in todays world is almost a no brainer
esp if you need a vehicle at the other end.

Is Kirby’s “pent up demand” backed up by bookings and therefore cash that he will fight tooth and nail to never refund? We shall see.
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Old May 20, 2020, 2:33 pm
  #26  
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Originally Posted by dinoscool3
UA can increase capacity all it wants, it won't fill it. The demand is not there not because the supply isn't there, but the other way around.
And I had you pegged as a total supply side economist

UA can decrease density on board by upgauging aircraft as part of an overall mission to improve customer confidence. But even here he says his short term pennies matter more than easing the customer.

What we have all learned is as much as we live travel, it is unessential at its core when things hit the fan.
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Old May 20, 2020, 2:46 pm
  #27  
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Originally Posted by TomMM
Driving JAX-ATL about 350 miles say about 5 hours. Jax-ATL flying on DL about 45 minutes.
And door to door?

Pre-COVID I flew ORD-CLE lot for work. Takeoff to touchdown: about 55 minutes. Actual total transit time, my apartment in Chicago to the client's front door in NE Ohio? Five or six hours. That's about the driving time, too, so it was a tossup. That's what the airlines are up against on sub-500 mile trips, especially if the rumors come true of having to show up at the airport hours before departure and line up for health checks, temp taking, etc. When I can just jump in my car and get there about as fast? No contest.
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Old May 20, 2020, 3:01 pm
  #28  
 
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Originally Posted by BearX220
If you are doing a trip of < 500m or so -- e.g. a day's drive -- I don't know why you wouldn't opt for driving over flying, given the latter's current health risks and hassle factors. Regardless of the air option's routing or layover time.
Turning a day trip via flying into a two or three day trip driving isn't all that appealing in many circumstances. That's one scenario. Here's another:

If you're used to taking a non-stop flight to a destination but now have to connect, what advantage does one airline have over another also offering a connection, from a logistics standpoint? Simply up-gauging aircraft makes no difference in this case. Adding that suspended nonstop flight back to the schedule can make all the difference. Bottom line: you don't keep market share with larger aircraft and poor convenience. You keep it with offering convenient options first.
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Old May 20, 2020, 3:55 pm
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by glbltvlr
Kirby just did an interview on CNBC. My notes:

- Seeing pent up demand for both business and leisure travel
- Mid April was bottom, was 10,000 customers then, 35,000 now
- Putting 30-40 larger aircraft on each day to address demand and distancing. Notifying customers of 70%+ load factors, offering free changes
- More important to get customers with need to travel accommodated rather than block seats
- Not expecting major price increases. Expects increased efficiency to offset increased costs.
- UA is flying 40 cargo only flights a day
- Prefers to keep employees on part time vs. layoff so as not to lose knowledge when recovery comes. Pilot and FA unions have to decide whether to reduce line minimums.
What is he supposed to say, LOL

Of course the most positive spin possible, support all the initiatives and things that are important and optimistic the passengers will return.
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Old May 20, 2020, 4:09 pm
  #30  
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Originally Posted by JimInOhio
If you're used to taking a non-stop flight to a destination but now have to connect, what advantage does one airline have over another also offering a connection, from a logistics standpoint? Simply up-gauging aircraft makes no difference in this case. Adding that suspended nonstop flight back to the schedule can make all the difference. Bottom line: you don't keep market share with larger aircraft and poor convenience. You keep it with offering convenient options first.
The demand isn't there. It is an industry-wide problem. I don't see any of the other airlines saying "We are going to run planes with 2 revenue pax in order to increase market share." In normal market conditions you would certainly expect the airline that offers the non-stop to increase their share but we are so far from normal market conditions.
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