EWR764

Whining about Scott Kirby and his changes to the Premier program (that have essentially been blown up by the COVID-19 crisis before fully rolling out) doesn't change the fact that United's performance has completely turned for the better essentially since the day he walked in the door. It was the first time in a generation that United had a forward-looking, growth-oriented strategy run by a competent airline manager

United would be in dire straits right now if the likes of Andrew Levy and Julia Haywood set the company's course during the last "good" years of the most recent economic boom cycle. United gained a lot of competitive ground in 2016-2019, much of it to the detriment of AA, and I attribute that to Kirby.

WineCountryUA

Understanding this was referring to J not Y,
I have some trouble with this assertion
First (From UA 2019 Annual Report)

Less than 12% of UA revenue came from the Pacific region, while this revenue, not profit, if the profit margins for China travel (assuming we are rolling HKG into China) were the bulk of UA profits, then the China travel profits would have to greater than 10x the rest of the UA system and without HKG, maybe 15x, And this is problematic as fares (& PRASM?) tend to be higher TATL than TPAC.
Additionally, the UA profits have increased as the Pacific % revenues have decreased

In 2019, UA' Net Operating Income was $4.3B, so bulk (>50%) would be >$2,2B and China (If all Pacific is 5.1B) , is less than $4B, we are talk 50% profit margins -- in the airline industry ????and other carriers were dropping China due to poor profits. Does not compute.

While it is beleive China has been an important contribution to UA for many years, being the bulk of profits does not seem plausible.

dmurphynj

While I agree wholly with your assertions... can we swivel for a minute on this chart?

What percentage of the domestic network comes from EWR? Just throwing darts, I'd guess maybe 20%? If so, that's $5.2b in revenue.

Last I recall, EWR was north of 15% margin. So just the domestic part of EWR traffic, at that 15% margin, would be almost $800m.

If net income was $4.3b, take out the $800m for EWR domestic, that's $3.5b for everything else - the rest of the domestic network plus all international routes. No way does China make up the "bulk" of that.... not possible.

limey1K

I’m buying all the shares I can.

bearkatt

and so was the company. whoever was responsible for that has no place in the future of united airlines.

fly18725

Share repurchase are almost universally used by publicly traded companies due to systematic issues with our tax code and economic system.

Vilifying United, and other airlines, for returning capital to shareholders like every other company is kind of a cheap shot, particularly when United funded its buybacks with cash flow, not cheap debt.

Not pursuing buybacks would not have created the customer utopia many desire. Find a better boogeyman to blame.

jonlibby

I am rooting for UA and the employees and I am looking forward to getting back in the air.

KevinPK1

Agreed on all the above!

tuolumne

The days of blaming executives at United, United's product, United's network, United's Polaris conversions, United's FF program as reason why United is sub-par and traumatized your first born, etc. are gone. It was mostly hot air before Covid as United has had a genuine renaissance the last 72 months, but to still hear that stuff now is rather incredulous. We are living through the largest global crisis since the second world war, and arguably worse.

trk1

I agree with the above also. Will be in the air often when safe

clubord

Very well said.

Thank you for your attempt to provide levity within this thread.

We’ve never seen anything like this in the industry.

narvik

Yeah, yeah. That may be factually correct, but every GOOD story has an antagonist!

J.Edward

I'd agree. While no leadership team will be perfect, it should be remembered under Kirby we saw more premium seats added, the next evolution of upgrades, network expansion, and so on.

I'll even go a step further and risk heresy here by saying UA upping the bar for Premier Status is inherently good for being able to defend the benefits offered by the program. UA could not have picked a worse time to up the requirements IMHO but in all fairness to management, it's not like Bondar or Kirby knew what delightful surprises awaited them in 2020.

The criticism of UA I feel is valid is in the smaller things that I suspect are immaterial in the scheme of things (e.g. requiring lifetime UC members to be flying on UA/partners, getting cute if you want to change your FFN after check-in, etc.) I'd also throw out middle management at UA was getting a little too arrogant as well. Won't go into the details here but the vibe I got from many, but not all, of the UA MDs to SVPs I personally met and interacted with in 2018/2019 was the "customers need us more than we need customers" mistake.

Anyways back to the point of UAL is finished...meh, disagree with this. If UAL is finished so is AA, DL, WN, etc., and a plethora of other small, medium, and large businesses far beyond aviation.

However recent events have shown the current administration is willing to support a broad spectrum of industries and I just don't see this as ending. Moreover, the US aviation sector is viewed as critical for national security, I doubt it will ever be "finished". Now, we might see a very "different" UA (and AA, DL, etc.), but I don't think UA is finished in the sense the OP implied.

UA_Flyer

Constructive discussions with proper data to support one's argument is always the basis for continuing exchange of views, but emotional debates with personal views without adequate data my not be helpful.

The world is experiencing something we have not seen for a century. Most of the industries will be impacted post Covid-19 whether it its business model, labor relationship, fundraising, liquidity and capital resource.... the list go on. There will be significant change management initiatives taking places across a number of entities globally. Politicians and policymakers will be under pressure to get the balance right in managing economy going forward.

Having too many posts focusing on "blaming" in the time of Covid-19 with doomsday projections, IMHO, are not helpful.

Often1

People who don't understand public company finance and how the IRC applies, spend their days whining about the ink on the boarding passes, the thread count in the hot towels, and finance moves they don't understand.

Post-Covid is going to a new world. Major corporate contracts are what will keep UA (AA & DL as well) in the air and the businesses with those contracts will be focused on the bottom line, not on how many meal choices there are in the J cabin.