UA Q4/Full Year 2019 Results/Conference Call 22 Jan 2020
#16
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Aug 2003
Programs: UA 1K 1MM (finally!), IHG AMB-Spire, HH Diamond
Posts: 60,174
#19
Moderator: United Airlines
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.995MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,854
Polaris Tracker - Mobile
states 788s will be completed by end of 2020
and for 789s, some of them will be a part of 10% that will linger into 2021
764s have not started yet, so that probably will finish up in 2021 also.
#20
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 57,595
Highlighted for the benefit of all the PP naysayers who didn't want to see these seats installed due to fear that it would cannibalize J demand.
#21
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: New York, NY
Programs: UA, AA, DL, Hertz, Avis, National, Hyatt, Hilton, SPG, Marriott
Posts: 9,452
#22
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: DAY
Programs: UA 1K 1MM; Marriott LT Titanium; Amex MR; Chase UR; Hertz PC; Global Entry
Posts: 10,159
Or is there no competitor hub in NYC?
#23
Moderator: United Airlines
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.995MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,854
24 Feb 2020 UA 8K filing
Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure.
As a result of the coronavirus ("COVID-19") outbreak, as of the date of this report, United Airlines, Inc. ("United"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL", and together with United, the "Company"), has suspended flights between the United States and each of Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai and Hong Kong through April 24, 2020. These routes represented approximately 5% of the Company's 2020 planned capacity and the Company's other trans-Pacific routes represented an additional 10% of the Company's 2020 planned capacity. As a result of COVID-19, we are currently seeing an approximately 100% decline in near-term demand to China and an approximately 75% decline in near-term demand on the rest of our trans-Pacific routes. We are managing our business to minimize the operational and financial disruption.
For the first quarter of 2020, we currently expect the reduced revenue on our trans-Pacific routes to be partially offset by the related decline in fuel prices and other cost savings. The incremental earnings headwind is also expected to be offset by higher earnings from our recently extended co-brand partnership with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Visa U.S.A. Inc. Accordingly, we expect first quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share ("EPS") to remain within our previously provided guidance range of $0.75 to $1.25.(1) Beyond the first quarter, we believe the range of possible scenarios is too wide to provide earnings guidance at this time. If COVID-19 were to run its course by mid-May, and normal travel patterns on trans-Pacific routes resume gradually over five months,we would expect to be tracking to deliver 2020 adjusted EPS within our previously provided guidance range of $11.00 to $13.00.(1) However, due to the heightened uncertainty surrounding this outbreak, its duration, its impact on overall demand for air travel and the possibility the outbreak spreads to other regions, the Company is withdrawing all full-year 2020 guidance issued on January 21, 2020.
Despite these short-term impacts, the Company continues to believe it will be in a strong position to deliver earnings growth in 2021 and beyond. We currently expect 2022 adjusted EPS1 to be $15.00 to $18.00, 2022 adjusted free cash flow (2) to be over $2.0 billion and 2023 adjusted free cash flow (2) to be over$3.0 billion. In addition, we are providing investors with a target cap on leverage, defined as adjusted debt (3) to adjusted earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation, amortization and aircraft rent (EBITDAR) (4) not to exceed 3.5 times, as a demonstration of our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet.
As a result of the coronavirus ("COVID-19") outbreak, as of the date of this report, United Airlines, Inc. ("United"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL", and together with United, the "Company"), has suspended flights between the United States and each of Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai and Hong Kong through April 24, 2020. These routes represented approximately 5% of the Company's 2020 planned capacity and the Company's other trans-Pacific routes represented an additional 10% of the Company's 2020 planned capacity. As a result of COVID-19, we are currently seeing an approximately 100% decline in near-term demand to China and an approximately 75% decline in near-term demand on the rest of our trans-Pacific routes. We are managing our business to minimize the operational and financial disruption.
For the first quarter of 2020, we currently expect the reduced revenue on our trans-Pacific routes to be partially offset by the related decline in fuel prices and other cost savings. The incremental earnings headwind is also expected to be offset by higher earnings from our recently extended co-brand partnership with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Visa U.S.A. Inc. Accordingly, we expect first quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share ("EPS") to remain within our previously provided guidance range of $0.75 to $1.25.(1) Beyond the first quarter, we believe the range of possible scenarios is too wide to provide earnings guidance at this time. If COVID-19 were to run its course by mid-May, and normal travel patterns on trans-Pacific routes resume gradually over five months,we would expect to be tracking to deliver 2020 adjusted EPS within our previously provided guidance range of $11.00 to $13.00.(1) However, due to the heightened uncertainty surrounding this outbreak, its duration, its impact on overall demand for air travel and the possibility the outbreak spreads to other regions, the Company is withdrawing all full-year 2020 guidance issued on January 21, 2020.
Despite these short-term impacts, the Company continues to believe it will be in a strong position to deliver earnings growth in 2021 and beyond. We currently expect 2022 adjusted EPS1 to be $15.00 to $18.00, 2022 adjusted free cash flow (2) to be over $2.0 billion and 2023 adjusted free cash flow (2) to be over$3.0 billion. In addition, we are providing investors with a target cap on leverage, defined as adjusted debt (3) to adjusted earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation, amortization and aircraft rent (EBITDAR) (4) not to exceed 3.5 times, as a demonstration of our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Feb 24, 2020 at 6:56 pm
#25
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: TOA
Programs: HH Diamond, Marriott LTPP/Platinum Premier, Hyatt Lame-ist, UA !K
Posts: 20,061
Hmmm. Sure seems like there's a UA/Chase opportunity - From above:
And another active thread:
David
The incremental earnings headwind is also expected to be offset by higher earnings from our recently extended co-brand partnership with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Visa U.S.A. Inc.
#26
Moderator: United Airlines
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.995MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,854
Already discussed inUnited Airlines Award/Premier Accelerator Rates [2020]
#27
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: TOA
Programs: HH Diamond, Marriott LTPP/Platinum Premier, Hyatt Lame-ist, UA !K
Posts: 20,061
UA is selling PQPs today for just under a $1per PQP
Already discussed inUnited Airlines Award/Premier Accelerator Rates [2020]
Already discussed inUnited Airlines Award/Premier Accelerator Rates [2020]
David
#28
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: Amtrak Guest Rewards, SPG Gold, United 1K, Hilton Diamond, Diamond Golden Circle
Posts: 158
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/un...rus-2020-02-24
There going to need to do something. Can't have a business that doesn't make money.
There going to need to do something. Can't have a business that doesn't make money.
#29
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,455
We're not going to see any requalification promos until the bottom has dropped out completely.
#30
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
UA is insisting it will remain on track (though it has formally withdrawn its earnings guidance in the event the coronavirus situation is not resolved by mid-May). This seems to me just more unwarranted arrogance on management's part. Pride before the fall and all that.
We're not going to see any requalification promos until the bottom has dropped out completely.
We're not going to see any requalification promos until the bottom has dropped out completely.