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UA Q4/Full Year 2019 Results/Conference Call 22 Jan 2020

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UA Q4/Full Year 2019 Results/Conference Call 22 Jan 2020

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Old Jan 22, 2020, 11:09 pm
  #16  
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Originally Posted by cesco.g
indeed - which would mean all 788s, 789s and 764s would be converted to true Polaris by this summer ...... !???!
no they didn’t put a date on this - just said all will have PP

just like all NB will have larger bag bins. No specific date
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Old Jan 22, 2020, 11:14 pm
  #17  
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Originally Posted by uastarflyer
no they didn’t put a date on this - just said all will have PP
Correct, I misread, e.g. the item reported above the one I referred to did spell out Summer 2020.
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Old Jan 22, 2020, 11:16 pm
  #18  
 
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Originally Posted by EWR764
- HKG is still weak but not a major drag on PRASM, PEK/PVG also weaker, rest of Asia doing well (SIN/TPE/Japan)
Thanks for the notes. Were SIN/TPE/Japan called out explicitly?
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Old Jan 22, 2020, 11:29 pm
  #19  
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Originally Posted by cesco.g
indeed - which would mean all 788s, 789s and 764s would be converted to true Polaris by this summer ...... !???!
788 & 789 mods have started, one 788 is finished

Polaris Tracker - Mobile
states 788s will be completed by end of 2020
and for 789s, some of them will be a part of 10% that will linger into 2021
764s have not started yet, so that probably will finish up in 2021 also.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 3:53 am
  #20  
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Originally Posted by EWR764
A few notes from the call:

- Premium Plus is not cannibalizing J demand, outperforming projections, contributing to PRASM tailwind
Highlighted for the benefit of all the PP naysayers who didn't want to see these seats installed due to fear that it would cannibalize J demand.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 6:26 am
  #21  
 
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Originally Posted by east_west
Thanks for the notes. Were SIN/TPE/Japan called out explicitly?
I reviewed the transcript and note that just Taiwan and Japan were called out explicitly... but other communications from Kirby and Co. consistently suggest that SIN is a top performer.
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Old Jan 23, 2020, 9:48 am
  #22  
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Originally Posted by MysteryTour
Once again, the only positive thing they could come up with relative to on-time performance:

"Number one in on-time departures at all hubs with direct competitors -- Chicago, Denver and Los Angeles."
Also fun to note when they include EWR as being in the NYC market, and when they leave it out.
Or is there no competitor hub in NYC?
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 6:51 pm
  #23  
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24 Feb 2020 UA 8K filing

Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure.

As a result of the coronavirus ("COVID-19") outbreak, as of the date of this report, United Airlines, Inc. ("United"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL", and together with United, the "Company"), has suspended flights between the United States and each of Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai and Hong Kong through April 24, 2020. These routes represented approximately 5% of the Company's 2020 planned capacity and the Company's other trans-Pacific routes represented an additional 10% of the Company's 2020 planned capacity. As a result of COVID-19, we are currently seeing an approximately 100% decline in near-term demand to China and an approximately 75% decline in near-term demand on the rest of our trans-Pacific routes. We are managing our business to minimize the operational and financial disruption.

For the first quarter of 2020, we currently expect the reduced revenue on our trans-Pacific routes to be partially offset by the related decline in fuel prices and other cost savings. The incremental earnings headwind is also expected to be offset by higher earnings from our recently extended co-brand partnership with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Visa U.S.A. Inc. Accordingly, we expect first quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share ("EPS") to remain within our previously provided guidance range of $0.75 to $1.25.(1) Beyond the first quarter, we believe the range of possible scenarios is too wide to provide earnings guidance at this time. If COVID-19 were to run its course by mid-May, and normal travel patterns on trans-Pacific routes resume gradually over five months,we would expect to be tracking to deliver 2020 adjusted EPS within our previously provided guidance range of $11.00 to $13.00.(1) However, due to the heightened uncertainty surrounding this outbreak, its duration, its impact on overall demand for air travel and the possibility the outbreak spreads to other regions, the Company is withdrawing all full-year 2020 guidance issued on January 21, 2020.

Despite these short-term impacts, the Company continues to believe it will be in a strong position to deliver earnings growth in 2021 and beyond. We currently expect 2022 adjusted EPS1 to be $15.00 to $18.00, 2022 adjusted free cash flow (2) to be over $2.0 billion and 2023 adjusted free cash flow (2) to be over$3.0 billion. In addition, we are providing investors with a target cap on leverage, defined as adjusted debt (3) to adjusted earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation, amortization and aircraft rent (EBITDAR) (4) not to exceed 3.5 times, as a demonstration of our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Feb 24, 2020 at 6:56 pm
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 6:59 pm
  #24  
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Translation: Don't expect any PQP promotions anytime soon.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 7:24 pm
  #25  
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Originally Posted by Kacee
Translation: Don't expect any PQP promotions anytime soon.
Hmmm. Sure seems like there's a UA/Chase opportunity - From above:

The incremental earnings headwind is also expected to be offset by higher earnings from our recently extended co-brand partnership with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Visa U.S.A. Inc.
And another active thread:

Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
Many rumors the UA / Chase relationship was strained and the future might in doubt, appears not.
Wonder what changes might come out of this
Originally Posted by DELee
In the future, you'll be able to buy PQPs for $2 each thru Chase credit cards?
David
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 8:22 pm
  #26  
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Originally Posted by DELee
In the future, you'll be able to buy PQPs for $2 each thru Chase credit cards?
UA is selling PQPs today for just under a $1per PQP

Already discussed inUnited Airlines Award/Premier Accelerator Rates [2020]
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 9:20 pm
  #27  
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
UA is selling PQPs today for just under a $1per PQP

Already discussed inUnited Airlines Award/Premier Accelerator Rates [2020]
Saw that. Was wondering (kinda tongue in cheek) if UA/Chase would team up to charge _more_ for PQPs given the stressing financial status of the current environment due to COVID-19...

David
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 10:17 pm
  #28  
 
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/un...rus-2020-02-24

There going to need to do something. Can't have a business that doesn't make money.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 11:05 pm
  #29  
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Originally Posted by Zoltar
There going to need to do something. Can't have a business that doesn't make money.
UA is insisting it will remain on track (though it has formally withdrawn its earnings guidance in the event the coronavirus situation is not resolved by mid-May). This seems to me just more unwarranted arrogance on management's part. Pride before the fall and all that.

We're not going to see any requalification promos until the bottom has dropped out completely.
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Old Feb 24, 2020, 11:15 pm
  #30  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
UA is insisting it will remain on track (though it has formally withdrawn its earnings guidance in the event the coronavirus situation is not resolved by mid-May). This seems to me just more unwarranted arrogance on management's part. Pride before the fall and all that.

We're not going to see any requalification promos until the bottom has dropped out completely.
Exactly my thought. They are now 12 months into the MAX issue, and a month into Coronavivus, and it is full speed ahead with MP and product devaluation, and the same old fleet and business plans.. Really head in the sand, "we are so great, everyone just has to fly us" typical UA behavior post 2011.
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