Hi. I've been reading through the posts, but could use some help in understanding how to best try and use my GPUs.

High school age daughter going to China this summer alone (ORD-PEK). Would prefer to have her on a direct flight, but could do a non-stop if necessary. Would like to use my GPUs and have her comfortable. She is traveling in late June, so we are ~3 months out.

Dates are a little flexible. I have checked inventory, and right now everything seems to be wait listed (PZ=0, PN=0). Since she doesn't have status, not sure where she will fall in the pecking order.

1) Will she have any pull using a GPU since she is not a GS/1K?
2) Are there days where availability may be more likely (eg. T-Th)?
3) Is it worth buying a W?
4) Is it better to buy a V?
5) I would like to ticket now, but it is better to just monitor for availability daily?

Appreciate any help . . . first time trying to pull these through. I usually just let them expire.

Generally, I would say yes. Wise applications of upgrade instruments target confirmable space at booking, or flights where it is likely to open. In this case status doesn't matter. If you roll the dice with the waitlist, you will have worse odds than a status pax, but the odds are honestly not great no matter what.

Yes. It's route-specific but usually Tuesday or Wednesday are the best days. The folks in [Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight sometimes have a good read on this for a particular flight(s).

I would only buy W if there is confirmable space at booking, or substantial PN space such that the FT sages predict high odds.

No. The marginal difference (especially as a non-status pax) is not worth it.

W fares rarely change and W space rarely disappears. I see no reason to book early until advance-purchase starts to limit your options. Just camp out and wait for PZ space.


Also, note that China is a very cheap market for airfare right now, and you may be able to locate a Business ticket outright for less than $2,500 if that suits your budget.

Thanks. Unfortunately, I can't find ANY PZ spaces. I found a handful of flights with ~4 PN. I am also now looking at a flight via SFO that has Premium Plus. Haven't seen that before, but it might be a safer way to play this.

Yeah . . . a major pain. Just had a fantastic conversation with an agent at the 1k desk. Walked me through how they release seats based on revenue management, with cargo playing a large role.OR

UA 2166/UA888 ORD-SFO-PEK which has ~50 business class seats AND 24 Premier Plus seats. So 74 comfortable seats. No business or PP seats have been released on this flight and only 3 business seats were purchased.

I was leaning toward the latter, but the agent said that since they have already released 2 seats on the first flight, they have probably met their revenue target and are likely to release more. So, I think I am going to roll the dice and take the direct flight. This is AGONIZING!

No.

AFAICT, and I could be wrong, ORD-PEK is not as high demand as you think, given that in the summer, PEK can be as hot as over 100F, as well as the polluted air. So even with a waitlist, the upgrade should be clear without issue.

There is no point by anything above W.

Amazing that agent was able to provide this much detail on the flights. The odds look very good to me. I've booked flights with a lot worse odds for my wife (Silver Premier) on ORD-FRA and cleared GPU upgrade 1 day before flight. Sometime you just don't have the luxury to only book when there is PZ>0. Make a calculated bet.

Id have taken the one with PP and gone for the upgrade to either.

Just my humble observations:
Beijing air quality in summer 2019 will likely not be as bad as many might think or have been led to believe through various news reports. They made huge strides in the last few years, with significant steps to curb pollution, and winter is always much worse than summer anyways...

And I disagree about waiting on purchasing W fare. I'd look for mid-week W fares and book as soon as possible, apply the GPU, and then monitor for PZ availability. It will likely clear a few weeks after booking, but hopefully before boarding!. But use cablepick to check actual booking loads, and choose the one with the least booked seats. Also, the direct ORD-PEK should be as easy or difficult as EWR-PEK at that time of year, so no benefit in going ORD-EWR-PEK. And I see no reason to go ORD-SFO-PEK either: save her from some potential hassle/anxiety associated with changing planes - book the direct flight! UA851 (ORD-PEK) seems to be mostly flown with the old CO 77Y plane these days, meaning there's 50 business class seats available in 2-2-2 (a GOOD thing, as it's not 2-4-2). This is a nice plane with comfortable seats.

I am sure OP's daughter will have a GREAT time in Beijing/China!
Although, on that note:

Make sure she gets a good VPN (such as ExpressVPN) for her iPhone before she leaves, otherwise she might struggle to stay connected and thus NOT have a good time!