Ah, fair interpretation. Well, I will pre-emptively report that my Sunday PM (non-redeye) SFO-ORD appears to be a no-go; will update if that changes. I would also not expect that one to clear, though.

I fly a consistent route every week, tracking the first class seat availability in an attempt to best use RPU/GPU or depend on CPU. There are absolutely more first class seats available later than in the past for my upcoming flights. I suspect part of this is a result of people like me, who would have bought a $129 upgrade in past years for 200% PQM to help reach status, not biting on the current $179 upgrade for 150% PQM. I had to basically buy every cheap upgrade and layer in mileage runs to make 1K the past two years, and this year with the 150% PQM I have zero chance. I'm perfectly happy with United increasing the price as I won't be buying, and it increases my chances of CPU.

And my Tuesday evening IAD-SFO is 46/48 so I doubt any CPUs will clear. Not really surprising, although I guess it is Tuesday :)

Frankly, I think Tuesday only means anything when going INTL. :eek:

It's my impression that Y loads are lighter, but I had to pay for a C fare so up front any rate it does not seem to be a quiet day. Fleeing the State of the Union, maybe :p

Worth a few hundred dollars, perhaps. I have never gotten close to clearing IAD/SFO either way AM or PM, even with certificates, in the past few years. (And I'm not about to start trying now!)

I'll keep the data points going:

So far 36 flights this year: Y-12 (55%) N-10 (45%) N/A-14. I do not count my time on the RJ200/145 in my clearance rate which is the 14 flights N/A.

Every domestic flight this year, all short hops, SAN-LAX/SFO, LAX/SFO-LAS and returns. All CPUs except one flight SAN-LAS used RPU for the flight (son's 21st) a d part of the return SFO-SAN was in Y.

Otherwise CPUs are near 100%. I have a flight next week SAN-ORD a d waiting to see if the RPU takes - longish flight so did not want to risk a CPU.

I'm 6 of 9 so far on CPUs. But five of the six segments were short segments (not counting LAX-SAT as short) and not hub-to-hub. Both hub-to-hub (IAH-LAX) failed to clear.

That said, I am hopeful that I will clear with a CPU tomorrow evening, IAH-LAX. The flight is showing 7 open seats in F (20 capacity; 13 booked), and I'm on a U fare.

A bit OT, but we remarkably just cleared 2 RPUs, EWR-SFO. One at 21days out and one at 14 days out. This seems unusual because that is typically a tough UG with tons of GSs in both cities, and I usually only get the UG within 24 hrs. I've got my fingers crossed for the returns.

9 of 22 (41%) on CPU eligible flights so far. Does not include the 4 RPU's I have cleared this year.

I started flying later this year and have received CPUs on 12/14 flights since 1/29. This is buying cheaper fares and usually within one week of travel. I also applied two RPUs not counted in the prior total.

Impressive success! I as well started off slowly this year with soon to be 14 segs (all CPU eligible) with ZERO CPU clearance. I have cleared 2 instruments (1GPU and 1RPU both domestic flgihts) however. This is now as a GS so for me so really no big change from my last several years as 1K at least so far. I have to say even now as GS it is STILL all about when and where you fly to. I would say you seem to clear instruments easier as a GS pax, I had horrible success with clearing them over the last 3 years as 1K.

I remain at 2/2 for CPU this year, and consider that to be a decrease in upgrade rate, as I have bought F more often rather than risk what seemed like unlikely upgrades. I have watched 1Ks file past me to Y on routes where I would have tried to CPU in the past.

I as well have been F on the longer hauls for basically the same reason. I will still role the dice with little success on some of the shorter runs. Tomorrow for example I am on a SFO-EGE and looks like a no go but paying for F wasn't really worth it on the "devil's chariot".