Domestic CPU clearance rates for 1Ks
 

January is historically the worst month for CPUs. You've got more 1K's (and for that matter, GS) than any other month due to people having the higher of their 2017 or 2018 earned statuses, along with some people throwing RPUs and even GPUs on every flight they are on to use them before they expire.

That said, I'm 100% on everything that isn't SFO/SJC-ORD, and 0% on those two routes, where even CPUs weren't enough to get me the upgrades.

Short segments CPUs
 

United still flies shorter segments on 2 cabin planes? All I ever see are CR2s and E145s...

Kinda forgot CPUs even exist...sorta like RPUs. Wait, are they still around also?

:D

I feel like a lot of this is small sample sizes, although it's always hard to tell. My general impression versus 1-2 years ago is that more and more people are buying F outright and/or taking the check-in buyup offers, but it's also much harder to tell the difference between 1K CPUs and 3-4 day purchases of F since they don't display the upgrade list anymore. Most recent DCA flight went from J7 to J2 around T-96, but based on the 1Ks in the back and not in the F cabin during preboard, I wouldn't be surprised if that was revenue purchases.

I'm 2-for-2 on CPU thus far (plus a successful RPU), but I don't gamble much and will buy F if I don't know I have a good shot at clearing.

2/8 so far this year. Position on failed upgrades did not seem unusual compared to the last year. Given the times I was traveling and the low fares I was on, I wasn't expecting the CPUs to clear at all.

I am running about 10% in the last two years, and surprisingly low on a lot of U/G lists. I fly a lot of hub-hub at prime times, so I don't expect upgrades anymore, but even formerly reliable routes (Florida, for example) have become rare for me. I generally fly on Q,U,W,V fares with some deeper discount mixed in, along with Y/B/M from time to time. Like a lot of others, I'm also a Z/P buyer when the price is right, so there's that, too.

Peak rate for me was about 2010-2014 as a top tier and 80%+, mostly discount fares. It's been steeply downhill from there.

Conversely, I've had exactly one GPU failure in about 5 years (on LH C>F), and end up using all of my RPUs every year, mostly on premium transcons.

2/4 so far this year - wasn't even close to getting an upgrade on transborder segments that are usually not that bad for upgrades. (#3 on 16J YYZ-ORD, #7 on 6J EWR-YHZ)

I am seeing nothing clear - for me, or anyone else - on my flights. F seems to go out full with either paid, awards, or buy-ups.

I was around 25% for CPUs for 2018. For the last two months, while trying to use the leftover GPUs on every flight eligible, also ended around 25% as I'm guessing everyone else was using their leftovers up too. Seemed like I was slightly higher on the upgrade list, but not by much. Mostly mid-cons and transcons for me though.

In 2018 I finished with 15 back to back CPUs, 2019 I'm on a slow start but not bad so far:

Yes: 5
No: 5
N/A: 9

The "N/A" category is either on the RJ200... or the much more pleasant ERJ145.

1/4 so far
1/18 EWR-LAS no
1/21 LAS-EWR no
1/29 EWR-RDU no
1/29 RDU-EWR yes

AW

I cleared LAX-IAH on the 77G 2/2. 1st time, Saturday afternoon flight; 2nd time 1:30am on a Tuesday but it was after I SDC onto it very surprised at that one.

The entire front cabin could be upgrades and you wouldn't know. For the past several months the upgrade list has only shown people that cleared after they checked in - so anyone that cleared in advance (even <24 hours, if they weren't checked in at the time) won't show.

+1. I think UA has calibrated the buy-up prices to make it quite attractive, particularly if you're not elite so would have to pay for E+, or if you're a late booker and F is worth it over a middle seat in the back.

I had 2 GPUs to use in January - both got burned successfully on single segment, mid-range domestic flights.

Of 3 possible CPU opportunities in January, I got the CPU once, so 1 out of 3 - not great.

Not much of a sample size, but 4/4 so far for CPU but all were on PHL-ORD. I have an ORD-PHL coming up on sunday that isnt looking good.
5/6 for RPU, these were mostly on PHL-IAH or DEN
One RPU was not successfully burned even giving it away

I was getting so use to F, that I was actually wondering if the E+ seats had gotten smaller when I had to sit in one.

Flying in and out of YUL, my options for a UA metal two class aircraft are rather limited, as RJ's are the de facto aircraft. I was somewhat surprised to be put #1 , then #2 on the waitlist for an IAD-YUL flight on 1/31 that I had just rebooked on 1/30 as part of an IST-YUL itinerary in an effort to avoid weather on my original ORD connection. Three seats in F were up for grabs and I received my upgrade minutes before departure. I've also had good luck flying out of Mexico, even on SDC flights. PSP-SFO also works in my favour.

2 for 2 so far at T-96, the rest were RJ145s

I've had my CPU for the 15-min flight between COS and DEN clear once out of four times.

0% this year for my SFO to ORD legs on Monday and Thursdays :( :( :(

Only one trip in January, TUS-IAH-SJU-IAH-TUS on a reward ticket. I was upgraded at 96 hours on all but IAH-SJU

I am 3/3 for 2019: 100% success rate with CPUs.

Has not that been true for years? atleast for peak hours (Monday AM, Thursday PM)

But still a useful report, I suppose, if the premise of this thread is higher CPU rates (maybe for 1K only) in 2019.

However, given that the qualification year is essentially only two days old now, I think it's premature to draw any conclusions.

My thinking was even when 1K CPU averages were better -- SFO-ORD Monday AM, Thursday PM was pretty much a poor CPU route, a dead zone, So that wouldnot be where I would expect to see improvements, if they are are occuring.

Ah, fair interpretation. Well, I will pre-emptively report that my Sunday PM (non-redeye) SFO-ORD appears to be a no-go; will update if that changes. I would also not expect that one to clear, though.

I fly a consistent route every week, tracking the first class seat availability in an attempt to best use RPU/GPU or depend on CPU. There are absolutely more first class seats available later than in the past for my upcoming flights. I suspect part of this is a result of people like me, who would have bought a $129 upgrade in past years for 200% PQM to help reach status, not biting on the current $179 upgrade for 150% PQM. I had to basically buy every cheap upgrade and layer in mileage runs to make 1K the past two years, and this year with the 150% PQM I have zero chance. I'm perfectly happy with United increasing the price as I won't be buying, and it increases my chances of CPU.

And my Tuesday evening IAD-SFO is 46/48 so I doubt any CPUs will clear. Not really surprising, although I guess it is Tuesday :)

Frankly, I think Tuesday only means anything when going INTL. :eek:

It's my impression that Y loads are lighter, but I had to pay for a C fare so up front any rate it does not seem to be a quiet day. Fleeing the State of the Union, maybe :p

Worth a few hundred dollars, perhaps. I have never gotten close to clearing IAD/SFO either way AM or PM, even with certificates, in the past few years. (And I'm not about to start trying now!)

I'll keep the data points going:

So far 36 flights this year: Y-12 (55%) N-10 (45%) N/A-14. I do not count my time on the RJ200/145 in my clearance rate which is the 14 flights N/A.

Every domestic flight this year, all short hops, SAN-LAX/SFO, LAX/SFO-LAS and returns. All CPUs except one flight SAN-LAS used RPU for the flight (son's 21st) a d part of the return SFO-SAN was in Y.

Otherwise CPUs are near 100%. I have a flight next week SAN-ORD a d waiting to see if the RPU takes - longish flight so did not want to risk a CPU.

I'm 6 of 9 so far on CPUs. But five of the six segments were short segments (not counting LAX-SAT as short) and not hub-to-hub. Both hub-to-hub (IAH-LAX) failed to clear.

That said, I am hopeful that I will clear with a CPU tomorrow evening, IAH-LAX. The flight is showing 7 open seats in F (20 capacity; 13 booked), and I'm on a U fare.

A bit OT, but we remarkably just cleared 2 RPUs, EWR-SFO. One at 21days out and one at 14 days out. This seems unusual because that is typically a tough UG with tons of GSs in both cities, and I usually only get the UG within 24 hrs. I've got my fingers crossed for the returns.