Premier Silver Upgrade Chances:

Old Oct 19, 18, 8:19 pm
  #1  
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Join Date: Jul 2018
Programs: Marriott Rewards Platinum Premier Elite, IHG Platinum Elite, United Premier Silver
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Premier Silver Upgrade Chances:

Hi FT Community,

I just booked my spring break trip from Chicago (ORD) to Maui, Hawaii (OGG). I know that as a Premier Silver, I am eligible for Complimentary Premier Upgrades, but also know that generally-speaking my chances of actually getting an upgrade are relatively low (however, I have cleared 1/1 flights so far since earning status with UA). I wanted to see what your thoughts were concerning my chances of being upgraded to United First for the following specific flights:

Wednesday, March 27 UA531 Departing at 10:11AM ORD-LAX on a Boeing 737-900 (currently showing an empty United First cabin)

Wednesday, March 27 UA454 Departing at 3:36PM LAX-OGG on a Boeing 737 MAX 9 (currently showing an empty United First cabin)

Tuesday, April 2 UA1430 Departing at 8:10PM OGG-DEN on a Boeing 777-200 (NOT ELIGIBLE SO DISREGARD THIS LEG)

Tuesday, April 2 UA2385 Departing at 9:42AM DEN-ORD on a Boeing 737-900 (currently showing an empty United First cabin)

While I realize that Premier Silvers are generally considered "shark bait" at ORD and LAX, I am thinking I may have a decent chance on the LAX-OGG leg because it's a leisure route and I shouldn't be competing with too many business travelers - if any at all. Looking forward to hearing back from you all! Also, I have a United Club Pass to burn - should I use it at a lounge in LAX or DEN (which is the nicer)? Thanks for your time everyone.

Last edited by JackFranchino; Oct 19, 18 at 8:32 pm
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Old Oct 19, 18, 8:30 pm
  #2  
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Originally Posted by JackFranchino View Post
While I realize that Premier Silvers are generally considered "shark bait" at ORD and LAX, I am thinking I may have a decent chance on the LAX-OGG leg because it's a leisure route and I shouldn't be competing with too many business travelers - if any at all. Looking forward to hearing back from you all! Also, I have a United Club Pass to burn - should I use it at a lounge in LAX or DEN (which is the nicer)? Thanks for your time everyone.
Your chance is zero on ORD-LAX. DEN-DTW is possible, as DTW is a DL hub so won't have as much UA traffic. LAX-OGG is a wildcard; your chances are about as good as they can be -- midweek, offseason, non-lie-flat equipment. However, UA is carrying an awful lot of paid F traffic to Hawaii these days -- the flights are long enough and prices are low enough that people have been splurging.

If you've booked within the last 24 hours, and you have some flexibility, consider cancelling and rebooking from YYZ instead. You can get first class for about the same price as coach from DTW. Of course, you'll need to get to YYZ, but it might still be worth it.
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Old Oct 19, 18, 8:38 pm
  #3  
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Join Date: Sep 2003
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Empty F cabins at this point mean absolutely nothing in terms of upgrade chances. CPU success to Hawaii has changed from easy to highly variable in last couple of years. Mid-week to Hawaii is better than weekends, but thereís absolutely no way to predict success this far out. As a IK, Iíve been CPU-upgraded and other times I have been in cosch (or would have been in coach w/o upgrade certificate) mid-week. Just assume youíll be in coach and if a CPU comes through, itíll be a pleasant surprise. You will definitely be in coach to LAX and DEN. Canít comment on flight to DTW.
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