How bad is it? Aircraft reliability.
Aug 4, 2018, 8:37 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 748
How bad is it? Aircraft reliability.
Over in Consolidated delayed/cancelled international flights (2018), it sure seems like the 787s cancel a lot due to maintenance.
Near the end of 2017, mduell posted in 777-300ER Reliability that the 773 was less than reliable.
Do we have a consolidated thread to track reliability figures?
Near the end of 2017, mduell posted in 777-300ER Reliability that the 773 was less than reliable.
Do we have a consolidated thread to track reliability figures?
Aug 4, 2018, 9:22 pm
#3
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Location: Honolulu Harbor
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I can't remember the last time I was significantly impacted by a mechanical. At least 4 years / ~200 flights ago. Fingers crossed. My disappointment in UA during last couple of 1K-level flying years is due to fewer upgrades rather than unreliable flight ops.
Aug 4, 2018, 9:41 pm
#4
Join Date: Jan 2016
Programs: UA 1K; *G, AA Plat
Posts: 1,700
Call it luck or something else but I’ve never been impacted by a 787 mechanical international delay out of lax / sfo in my 3 year and counting flying career.
All of my 777-300ER delays have come from taxiing / airport delays, not aircraft mechanical.
In my opinion, it’s not bad at all.
All of my 777-300ER delays have come from taxiing / airport delays, not aircraft mechanical.
In my opinion, it’s not bad at all.
Aug 4, 2018, 10:30 pm
#5
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Location: Austin, TX
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That's because nobody posts a message for the flights that don't cancel. There are 37 787s listed on the fleet website; figuring that they average about 1 1/2 flights per day, that's 55 or so daily 787 flights. I scrolled through your thread, and the first 787 maintenance cancellation I saw was January 18th, meaning they'd operated somewhere around 1000 flights during the year before they had one cancel for MX.
I think you're seeing a pattern where none exists.
I think you're seeing a pattern where none exists.
Aug 4, 2018, 10:49 pm
#6
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 748
FWIW, I’m not claiming to see a pattern. In fact I’d much rather see real data. My personal reliability experience has been high...to the point my colleagues laugh when I add segments to pad PQM.
mduell had some interesting information, but it only covered the wide body fleet. In the past, 744 and sUA 752 were known to MX often due to age. 763 has gone through at least a couple of rounds of heavy maintenance to improve reliability. And a few years ago, 744 was pulled from ORD and focused in SFO to improve reliability...eventually returning to ORD for a while before being pulled back to SFO in a lead up to retirement.
Simple question...can we get data to see legitimate reliability figures by fleet/subfleet, and perhaps update periodically via wiki? I am surprised if such data doesn’t exist, although I expect it to be internal to UA.
mduell had some interesting information, but it only covered the wide body fleet. In the past, 744 and sUA 752 were known to MX often due to age. 763 has gone through at least a couple of rounds of heavy maintenance to improve reliability. And a few years ago, 744 was pulled from ORD and focused in SFO to improve reliability...eventually returning to ORD for a while before being pulled back to SFO in a lead up to retirement.
Simple question...can we get data to see legitimate reliability figures by fleet/subfleet, and perhaps update periodically via wiki? I am surprised if such data doesn’t exist, although I expect it to be internal to UA.
Aug 4, 2018, 11:47 pm
#7
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Aug 5, 2018, 1:10 am
#8
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The airline will have this data. And they study it very carefully. It's called dispatch reliability. The higher it is, the more efficient the operation will be. The more efficient, the more you can plan to use an aircraft to carry passengers rather than sit on the ground.
Expect the data for longhaul to be somewhere between 98% and 99.7%. In fact, the volume of flights vs disruption proportion will not be passenger perceptible under typical circumstances.
Expect the data for longhaul to be somewhere between 98% and 99.7%. In fact, the volume of flights vs disruption proportion will not be passenger perceptible under typical circumstances.
Aug 5, 2018, 3:12 am
#9
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 57,617
In my 19 years of flying UA, I have had one flight cancelled and three flights significantly (+6 hours} delayed. Like the poster above, I've been more disappointed by unrealized upgrades than unreliable flight ops.
Aug 5, 2018, 7:34 am
#10
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I has gotten a lot better IMO. Last year I had 1 international cancellation (or 4+ hr delay) due to maintenance whereas the year before it was 4 or 5 (out of maybe 20). They are still having issues IMO mostly with the 752 fleet; EWR-EDI/GLA/DUB/LIS and such destinations are much more risky than others.
Aug 5, 2018, 10:18 am
#11
Join Date: Nov 1999
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What the OP is pointing out is that UA's newest segment of the fleet, the 787s, have some of the most noteworthy cancellations in that thread.
The question is not, "does 97% seem about right for the completion rate for 787s?". The question you need to be asking is, "what *should* the cancellation rate be, for a brand new aircraft?" And MDuell had stats on the notion that others seem to operate the 787 with much higher reliability. Wouldn't you expect a brand new aircraft (or within a few years of new) to be pretty reliable? Not being cancelled a lot due to mechanical?
Either UA is failing at the maintenance of this new fleet, or it operates them in a way that leads to significantly more cancellations than is reasonable.
Aug 5, 2018, 12:55 pm
#13
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They've fixed the 77W reliability, but they still can't figure out how to board them or something; can't even get a 50/50 shot of an on time departure.
Last 6 months for UA flights blocked 8 hours or more:
Of course, the D0 may depend on what airport you're leaving.
Looking at only those flights above departing from a hub:
I don't really understand how DEN can be first for D0 and last for A60.
Cross-tabs for fun and speculation:
Last 6 months for UA flights blocked 8 hours or more:
Code:
aircrafttype | cancel | d0 | a60 --------------+--------+-----+----- B752 | 1.9% | 65% | 93% B763 | 1.5% | 58% | 92% B764 | 1.3% | 57% | 93% B772 | 0.5% | 52% | 94% B77W | 0.5% | 42% | 95% B788 | 1.0% | 57% | 93% B789 | 0.6% | 54% | 96%
Looking at only those flights above departing from a hub:
Code:
origin | cancel | d0 | a60 --------+--------+-----+----- KDEN | 1.3% | 61% | 89% KEWR | 0.6% | 50% | 92% KIAD | 0.4% | 58% | 92% KIAH | 0.3% | 50% | 94% KLAX | 0.5% | 51% | 97% KORD | 0.2% | 54% | 94% KSFO | 0.1% | 41% | 95%
Cross-tabs for fun and speculation:
Code:
origin | aircrafttype | cancel | d0 | a60 --------+--------------+--------+-----+----- KDEN | B788 | 1.3% | 61% | 88% KEWR | B752 | 0.9% | 46% | 91% KEWR | B763 | 1.0% | 54% | 89% KEWR | B764 | 0.3% | 52% | 93% KEWR | B772 | 0.4% | 50% | 91% KEWR | B77W | 1.1% | 47% | 94% KIAD | B763 | 0.9% | 53% | 90% KIAD | B772 | 0.0% | 62% | 93% KIAD | B788 | 0.3% | 62% | 93% KIAH | B763 | 0.0% | 49% | 93% KIAH | B772 | 0.4% | 51% | 94% KIAH | B789 | 0.6% | 45% | 94% KLAX | B789 | 0.5% | 51% | 97% KORD | B763 | 0.6% | 58% | 91% KORD | B772 | 0.1% | 52% | 95% KSFO | B772 | 0.0% | 51% | 94% KSFO | B77W | 0.2% | 32% | 93% KSFO | B788 | 0.0% | 48% | 96% KSFO | B789 | 0.2% | 45% | 95%
Aug 5, 2018, 1:13 pm
#15
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A quick glance, a couple of interesting outliers
No B752 from SFO -- did you only do international flights?
B752s the highest cancel -- the age since las major refresh showing??
B788 issue at DEN -- obe flight, limited maintenance support at DEN for the 788?
SFO -- lowest cancel, but lowest D0 but nearly highest A60
Great data, thanks
In WX, they are the first canceled
No B752 from SFO -- did you only do international flights?
B752s the highest cancel -- the age since las major refresh showing??
B788 issue at DEN -- obe flight, limited maintenance support at DEN for the 788?
SFO -- lowest cancel, but lowest D0 but nearly highest A60
Great data, thanks
In WX, they are the first canceled