OliverB

Hello FT,

I just booked a ONE-WAY saver award for 2 people through UA:

DEC 07, 2018 - UA1721
(SFO) 9:30 AM (KOA) 1:07 PM

It cost me 45,000 miles (actually 44K + $40.31 for the missing mileage) to book 2 seats in X class.

Looking over rates, it just seems way too expensive and a really poor value. I'm still within the 24 hours free cancellation period and I'm wondering if anyone can help me to do this more efficiently?

I need 2 tickets on a similar itinerary: SFO-KOA on 12/07/18

I now have 45K UA miles and I'm wondering if I can do better with a partner airline (Hawaiian?) or perhaps I should have just gone the paid route via AA or Alaska rather than spend the mileage through UA? I'd really, really, really appreciate some input and feedback since I still have some time to make changes to our itinerary without penalty.

Thanks so much!

OliverB

I should also add that my wife has a 15K balance in UA and I'm looking to book a SINGLE ONE-WAY return to SFO, either from KOA or (ideally) ITO/Hilo on 12/17/18.

Kacee

Considering that you can currently buy a one-way SFO-KOA departing on December 7 for $288 (one stop on Hawaiian Airlines) or $349 (non-stop on Alaska Airlines, yes I'd say 45k miles is not a very good deal.

A common valuation of UA miles is 1.5 cents per.

Note that the UA flight is considerably more expensive, at $846 round-trip or $1228 one-way (yes, the one-way costs more than the roundtrip), I see zero reason to pay a premium to fly UA on this route.

jsloan

You won't find a lower price using UA miles. You can't use UA miles to redeem on Hawaiian's long-haul flights (only their intra-island flights), and, even if you could, you wouldn't get a lower price than 22,500 per person.

If you'd rather pay cash, cancel and pay cash; I'm not sure what other advice you're seeking. I mean, UA wants $1228 per person on the nonstop, so by that measure you got an extremely good deal. On the other hand, Alaska only wants $349 per person, which makes your redemption a good, but not great, deal, and Hawaiian or Delta will sell you a one-stop itinerary for just under $300 per person.

amtrakusa

UA is not going to be interested in selling you a cheap seat to Hawaii 7 months in advance. If you are short on cash and miles, cancel and check united.com every week from now to September.

OliverB

Thank you both very much, that's really helpful.

It looks like I more or less redeemed for the equivalent of $337.50 / ticket which isn't terrible if Alaska is selling non-stop one-way routes at $350.

Is it cheaper to fly RT with Alaska or Hawaiian as it is with UA?

Since I have no other upcoming plans, I guess I'm fine with spending the miles versus paying $700 USD for a single leg (2 tickets).

I will almost certainly be paying for the return however. I'd like to fly back out of Hilo (if possible) instead of Kona. Would you be able to help me figure out the cheapest way to do this non-stop on 12/17/18; is Alaska/Hawaii the way to go?

Thanks again for your help!

OliverB

Do prices typically take a nosedive closer in to dates? I was under the impression that similar rates were more or less consistent for this particular route. Mainland flights to Hawaii always seem to be expensive and afaik there's pretty steady year-round traffic from SFO/LAX to the islands. I'm worried about waiting too long since this falls just before the holidays and we're really locked into these dates. It's true that I'm short on cash + miles right now, but I may end up just putting the return on my credit card if waiting risks limiting our options.

jsloan

one-way: https://www.google.com/flights#flt=K...;sd:1;t:f;tt:o

round-trip: https://www.google.com/flights#flt=S...D;e:1;sd:1;t:f

Take a look. (Hilo seems to be a little more expensive than Kona).

UA won't be able to get $1200 for every seat on the flight. The Alaska Airlines price might not drop, but UA's likely will. (Except, the number of miles for an award ticket won't drop). UA's current strategy is basically "we won't discount in advance, because there's plenty of time to discount later." As a point of comparison, looking one month out, for Friday, June 8, the nonstop flights are $279 on both UA and Alaska.

Early December is actually a fairly low travel time in general -- not that there's ever really an off-season for travel to Hawaii these days -- because most people are saving their vacation time and dollars for the holidays.

amtrakusa

UA is hoping to discount less far out, and then release more seats close in to departure date. It is a risky strategy, but UA thinks it will work. Theoretically UA could get more total revenue this way, as competitors run out seats and increase price, UA is still able to sell seats at more elevated price levels (cheaper than competitor but still much higher than heavily discounted ticket it typically sells).

ContinentalFan

findark

Early December is silent as the grave for air travel basically everywhere.

A very rough description of (domestic) airline pricing is that sale fares will be published 1-3 months in advance of departure. Note these are the "usual sales" and aren't huge discounts, but they tend to be better than if you blindly buy a ticket more than 90 days in advance. In the mean time, bigger sales valid for travel at various dates (possibly far in advance) will happen intermittently. With this far to go, I think it's probably best to just sit and watch the market to acclimatize yourself. I would warrant that the X space isn't about to vanish.

However, someone who knows the market better can comment whether $289-350 is a historically good price or not.

Kacee

Ah, so 22.5k per ticket. That's not so bad.

The first two weeks of December in Hawaii are dead dead dead. I've gotten some really cheap fares. Though it can be stressful hanging in there and waiting for the fares to drop.