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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Mar 5, 2019, 4:30 pm
  #3721  
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: HND, NRT
Programs: UA Gold (1K 2016–2023 by miracle extensions; RIP 1K status), 1MM
Posts: 220
Originally Posted by jjmoore
My only guess would be because NRT-GUM and v.v. is a leisure route for Japanese tourists, and I suspect there is not a big market for full fare J seats on those flights.....

Don't forget 1A and 1B on the 777-200 are blocked and will open up approximately 48 hours prior to departure if you're looking for a better seat.
Thanks. Yes, I saw 1A and B open up on my outbound but I was happy in 1K (I think my first time as a 1K to sit in 1K). I have the sucky middle 1E on the return next week so I'll try to grab 1B. Good to know to watch at 48 hours rather than just checking a couple times a day hoping something shows up. On the app 1A and B are invisible but they show as occupied on my computer so I assumed they were blocked but there should be no need for crew rest on such a short flight so I was hoping they'd open up.
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Old Mar 6, 2019, 4:56 am
  #3722  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
Originally Posted by Kannai
Thanks. Yes, I saw 1A and B open up on my outbound but I was happy in 1K (I think my first time as a 1K to sit in 1K). I have the sucky middle 1E on the return next week so I'll try to grab 1B. Good to know to watch at 48 hours rather than just checking a couple times a day hoping something shows up. On the app 1A and B are invisible but they show as occupied on my computer so I assumed they were blocked but there should be no need for crew rest on such a short flight so I was hoping they'd open up.
It doesn't happen exactly at 48 hours, but more typically at midnight of the 2nd day before.... just keep an eye out, as others know about this too.
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Old Mar 6, 2019, 6:20 am
  #3723  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: PHL
Programs: UA 1K 1MM, Marriott Gold, IHG Platinum, Raddison Platinum, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 5,271
3/8 UA731 PHL-SFO 739
J5JN5C4D3Z3ZN3P3PN0PZ0IN0I0Y9YN9B9M9E9U9H9HN9Q9V9W 9S9T9L9K9G9N9XN9X9

I am 1K on an L fare. Wondering about my CPU chances. Typically they fly A319 on this route but they have a 739 this time. Otherwise, I might try a RPU.
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Old Mar 6, 2019, 6:49 am
  #3724  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
Originally Posted by eng3
3/8 UA731 PHL-SFO 739
J5JN5C4D3Z3ZN3P3PN0PZ0IN0I0Y9YN9B9M9E9U9H9HN9Q9V9W 9S9T9L9K9G9N9XN9X9

I am 1K on an L fare. Wondering about my CPU chances. Typically they fly A319 on this route but they have a 739 this time. Otherwise, I might try a RPU.
These are tough routes to clear as a 1K for CPU ... likely will be several with instruments applied, and some GS waiting since there is no PN showing available at the moment. Your only chance will be to apply RPU and hope to be on top of the 1K list, especially since you are on an L fare, and there are likely 1K's with higher fare class that will be on top of you on the list. I wouldn't wait around on this one.... apply the RPU now for your best chance.
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Old Mar 6, 2019, 6:59 am
  #3725  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: PHL
Programs: UA 1K 1MM, Marriott Gold, IHG Platinum, Raddison Platinum, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 5,271
Originally Posted by jjmoore
These are tough routes to clear as a 1K for CPU ... likely will be several with instruments applied, and some GS waiting since there is no PN showing available at the moment. Your only chance will be to apply RPU and hope to be on top of the 1K list, especially since you are on an L fare, and there are likely 1K's with higher fare class that will be on top of you on the list. I wouldn't wait around on this one.... apply the RPU now for your best chance.
Thanks. Usually there is no hope on the A319. I was unsure how much a difference switching the the 739 would make in my chances. It's too bad one can't apply an instrument within 24hrs AFTER you know where you are on the list.
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Old Mar 6, 2019, 7:19 am
  #3726  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
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Originally Posted by eng3
Thanks. Usually there is no hope on the A319. I was unsure how much a difference switching the the 739 would make in my chances. It's too bad one can't apply an instrument within 24hrs AFTER you know where you are on the list.
Call the 1K line... if you're lucky, you will get an agent to uncheck you, apply the certificate, and re-check you.... I would also ask if you can re-route through EWR and apply a certificate if there are seats open on the p.s. flights. I've been lucky a couple times as a 1K doing that approach too... and with that approach, you are more likely to be able to apply that RPU within the 24 hour window.

I have applied RPU's within 4 hours of departure after doing a SDC, just as a reference point.
Last edited by jjmoore; Mar 6, 2019 at 7:31 am
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Old Mar 6, 2019, 7:28 am
  #3727  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: PHL
Programs: UA 1K 1MM, Marriott Gold, IHG Platinum, Raddison Platinum, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 5,271
Originally Posted by jjmoore
Call the 1K line... if you're lucky, you will get an agent to uncheck you, apply the certificate, and re-check you.... I would also ask if you can re-route through EWR and apply a certificate if there are seats open on the p.s. flights. I've been lucky a couple times as a 1K doing that approach too... and with that approach, you are more likely to be able to apply that RPU within the 24 hour window.

I have applied RPU's within 4 hours of departure after doing a SDC, just as a reference point.

J
I've tried calling the 1K line but I guess I have never been lucky enough to get an agent willing to do it.

As for EWR, I've flown the ps route many times in both directions, always on an instrument (W fare or higher) and I've only cleared once (when they started flying the 773). Plus, I don't really want to drive all the way up to EWR.
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Old Mar 6, 2019, 7:34 am
  #3728  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
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Posts: 2,820
Originally Posted by eng3
I've tried calling the 1K line but I guess I have never been lucky enough to get an agent willing to do it.

As for EWR, I've flown the ps route many times in both directions, always on an instrument (W fare or higher) and I've only cleared once (when they started flying the 773). Plus, I don't really want to drive all the way up to EWR.
I was thinking to take the PHL-EWR ... but then realized there is no PHL-EWR, or PHL-IAD. Oh well..... sorry...

Let us know if the RPU works out.... fingers crossed!
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Old Mar 7, 2019, 7:38 am
  #3729  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Posts: 5,271
Just to report back. Checking last night, I saw on 3 F seats were available so I figured I had pretty low changes for a CPU and applied the RPU. To my surprise, at checkin (approx T-24), my upgrade cleared. I always wonder if I'm "wasting" my RPU (because I may have been CPUed). Then again, I ended up having an unused RPU last year.
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Old Mar 7, 2019, 11:08 am
  #3730  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: UA Platinum
Posts: 76
Originally Posted by jsloan
It's way too early to tell. Upgrades are going to be difficult on a Friday, especially during the summer, but I don't think EWR-LIS is a huge business travel route, so there's still a chance. Z9 ZN9 P0 isn't actually terrible inventory for you; terrible would be J9 JN9 C9 D0. It's good news that they're selling some discount inventory.
Update here, so inventory has gone from Z9 ZN9 to D9 Z0. Still only booked 8/39, though a couple economy seats have been sold the past few days. Obviously can't be a good sign, but wondering if anyone has a crystal ball into why the computer moved that inventory around
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Old Mar 7, 2019, 11:25 am
  #3731  
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Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,412
Originally Posted by sardonic
Update here, so inventory has gone from Z9 ZN9 to D9 Z0. Still only booked 8/39, though a couple economy seats have been sold the past few days. Obviously can't be a good sign, but wondering if anyone has a crystal ball into why the computer moved that inventory around
Sales of economy seats are likely used as an indicator of business demand. but there are so many factors at play that it could be almost anything -- sales of the same flight the week before, or the day after, or... etc. We'll go mad if we try to decipher inventory movements.
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Old Mar 7, 2019, 12:39 pm
  #3732  
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Originally Posted by jsloan
Sales of economy seats are likely used as an indicator of business demand. but there are so many factors at play that it could be almost anything -- sales of the same flight the week before, or the day after, or... etc. We'll go mad if we try to decipher inventory movements.
I'm pretty sure sometimes they just open/close things to perturb the status quo and see what happens.
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Old Mar 8, 2019, 4:26 am
  #3733  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: UA Platinum
Posts: 76
Originally Posted by jsloan
Sales of economy seats are likely used as an indicator of business demand. but there are so many factors at play that it could be almost anything -- sales of the same flight the week before, or the day after, or... etc. We'll go mad if we try to decipher inventory movements.
Originally Posted by findark
I'm pretty sure sometimes they just open/close things to perturb the status quo and see what happens.
I guess I'm going mad! After a couple days it's back to Z9 ZN9. I wonder if it has to do with day of week, maybe more business class travel is purchased Wed/Thurs.
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Old Mar 8, 2019, 8:45 am
  #3734  
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Originally Posted by sardonic
I guess I'm going mad! After a couple days it's back to Z9 ZN9. I wonder if it has to do with day of week, maybe more business class travel is purchased Wed/Thurs.
That's a possibility; another one is that whatever demand indicator they were using dropped back below the trend line. For example, if they were using economy sales, and no additional economy seats have sold, the needle could have swung back toward offering a discount.

Really, it just goes to show that it's best not to worry too much about it, but rather to cross your fingers and hope that you clear.
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Old Mar 8, 2019, 9:48 am
  #3735  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Socal
Programs: UA Plat, Bonvoy Gold, Amex Plat, CSR
Posts: 207
Can anyone tell me what the chances of a GPU upgrade are for the following flights:

LAX-SYD UA839 Mar 12
SYD-LAX UA842 Mar 20
2 travelers (I am a 1K)

I am thinking about buying up to a W-fare but need a data point to assess my chances (if that's even possible). TIA!
Last edited by whipwhitaker; Mar 8, 2019 at 10:07 am Reason: Flight numbers added. Duh
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