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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 20, 2019, 11:31 am
  #3661  
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Do they have Polaris seats on those 787-10 transcons?
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Old Feb 20, 2019, 11:47 am
  #3662  
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Originally Posted by wco81
Do they have Polaris seats on those 787-10 transcons?
Yes, it's the only Dreamliner delivered w/ the true Polaris seats.
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Old Feb 20, 2019, 11:52 am
  #3663  
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How many domestic routes are those flying?

I suppose not only are they hard to upgrade but probably little or no J saver inventory?
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Old Feb 20, 2019, 11:58 am
  #3664  
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Originally Posted by wco81
How many domestic routes are those flying?

I suppose not only are they hard to upgrade but probably little or no J saver inventory?
In most cases, upgrade space would open before saver J inventory, so your supposition is correct. There is almost no saver J availability on these flights.
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Old Feb 20, 2019, 12:28 pm
  #3665  
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Originally Posted by BThumme
The point I was trying to make was the usual 752 has 16 seats available. You say regularly 20+ long list of upgrades (which I believe) - the 787-10 seats I think 44. So that would cover a 20+ long list easily. A Thursday morning (815am-417pm). flight seems like a slightly better option then most other west coast to east coast flights timing wise.
You need to consider the number of J seats relative to Y, not the absolute number of J. The 28J 752 has the best J:Y ratio (1:4.1), the 781 is 50% worse, at 1:6.2, with the 16J 752 last at 1:9.6. So just based on the numbers, your best upgrade bet is a 28J 752.

My 781 flight EWR-SFO on Sunday night had over 25 revenue pax on the waitlist (not counting NRSA) when the door closed.
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Old Feb 20, 2019, 4:37 pm
  #3666  
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A daytime flight in PE for the price of Y is already a pretty awesome deal though
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Old Feb 21, 2019, 11:01 pm
  #3667  
 
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What are my odds of getting a CPU on flight #1572 on 2/27 ERW-PDX as a Gold on a W fare? I see a lot of E+ seats taken so I am guess there are a good number of status flyers on this flight (likely higher than me). Debating if I want to use try for a CPU or use a voucher to buy up. Would be worth it on a 6 hour flight.

Current fares showing: J9 JN9 C9 D7 Z7 ZN7 PN7 PZ5 IN2 I2

Last edited by flyguy6; Feb 21, 2019 at 11:06 pm
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Old Feb 21, 2019, 11:13 pm
  #3668  
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Originally Posted by flyguy6
What are my odds of getting a CPU on flight #1572 on 2/27 ERW-PDX as a Gold on a W fare?
30% at best, and that's if everything goes right. If there's a cancellation on an earlier PDX flight, that'll go to zero.

It's only booked 9/20, but I agree that there appear to be a significant number of premier travelers already on the flight. Also, they'll sell a few more tickets between now and then, and they'll sell some TODs at check-in -- some other people will have the same opinion as you do, that it's worth it for a six-hour flight.

With PZ5, you also have the option to use 17.5K miles to confirm the upgrade immediately.
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Old Feb 21, 2019, 11:26 pm
  #3669  
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I think 30% sounds about right. 11 empty in F and 12 assigned in E+. Unfortunately I have seen a lot of takers of TODs these days as the economy improves, but you do at least have a fighting chance.
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Old Feb 22, 2019, 11:08 am
  #3670  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan
30% at best, and that's if everything goes right. If there's a cancellation on an earlier PDX flight, that'll go to zero.

It's only booked 9/20, but I agree that there appear to be a significant number of premier travelers already on the flight. Also, they'll sell a few more tickets between now and then, and they'll sell some TODs at check-in -- some other people will have the same opinion as you do, that it's worth it for a six-hour flight.

With PZ5, you also have the option to use 17.5K miles to confirm the upgrade immediately.
If you have an offer to upgrade for 17.5k miles, I would definitely do that to get the confirmed upgrade for a cross country flight. Still showing PZ5 as of now, so would be confirmed immediately.
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Old Feb 22, 2019, 11:15 am
  #3671  
 
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I would use an rpu
confirmed instant

eta, I just saw that you're gold and don't have rpus.
​​​​​​ Maybe you can find someone that has and is willing to gift it to you
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Old Feb 22, 2019, 4:47 pm
  #3672  
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Originally Posted by tstauck
If you have an offer to upgrade for 17.5k miles, I would definitely do that to get the confirmed upgrade for a cross country flight. Still showing PZ5 as of now, so would be confirmed immediately.
That would leave such a raw taste for me since a new saver ticket would only be 25k. Unless original fare was really small, like $100.
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Old Feb 23, 2019, 1:55 am
  #3673  
 
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Originally Posted by findark
That would leave such a raw taste for me since a new saver ticket would only be 25k. Unless original fare was really small, like $100.
Agreed 17.5k seemed a bit high even without a co pay. Plus I would not get first on my other segment which is on a RJ145 without first class

Thanks for all input everyone. I saw PZ drop to 3 today. I decided I didn't want to take my chance for a CPU and used my voucher to buy up to first (D fare). Plus getting 200% PQM's is nice too.
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Old Feb 27, 2019, 4:15 am
  #3674  
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During Easter weekend, I'm flying HAM-FRA-EWR-FRA-HAM with 2 other persons so we're 3 persons on the same reservation. I want to use my 6 GPUs for this trip and I see this is possible. My question is what will happen if there is just space for 1 or 2 persons. Will only 1 or 2 persons be upgraded to business class and the third one will be seated in economy plus? I understand that it is harder to upgrade 3 people to business class. I also see an option for upgrading to Premium Plus bus I don't want to use my GPUs for this. And GPUs for 1K members are cleared 96 hours before departure or even earlier?
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Old Feb 27, 2019, 5:20 am
  #3675  
 
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Originally Posted by Goflyer100
During Easter weekend, I'm flying HAM-FRA-EWR-FRA-HAM with 2 other persons so we're 3 persons on the same reservation. I want to use my 6 GPUs for this trip and I see this is possible. My question is what will happen if there is just space for 1 or 2 persons. Will only 1 or 2 persons be upgraded to business class and the third one will be seated in economy plus? I understand that it is harder to upgrade 3 people to business class. I also see an option for upgrading to Premium Plus bus I don't want to use my GPUs for this. And GPUs for 1K members are cleared 96 hours before departure or even earlier?
GPUs can clear anytime between the time of booking to the time that you are already sitting in your Economy + seat.

If you are 3 passengers in your reservation, if they release 1 or 2 PZ at any time until check-in your group of 3 will be bypassed in favor of the next passenger on the upgrade waiting list traveling alone (PZ1) or traveling with only one companion (PZ2). After check-in, I think that they separate the PNR and then yes 1 or 2 of your group might get the upgrade and the rest will be in Economy + or if you are lucky all 3 get upgraded.

Have you checked how many business class seats are already sold on your flight? And what are the fare codes available? If you see a high number for PN (like PN5 to PN9), then there are higher chances that they open some PZ.
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