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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Sep 7, 2018, 10:17 am
  #3121  
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Originally Posted by fx12002
Is this because the lower the fare bucket available, the more likely they are to open R space? So, Z0 is bad because if they feel no need to open up deep discount buckets, they are less likely to ever open R space? As the flight gets closer with unsold inventory, do they typically start going up the alphabet in terms of cheaper buckets or is it totally route dependent?
Yes, Z0 is bad because it means UA thinks it can sell out at D or higher.

You will often see UA open cheaper buckets closer to departure in order to sell unsold seats, but it is really dependent on route and flight. The progression you want to see is P9=>PN9, as that strongly indicates R is next.
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Old Sep 7, 2018, 11:31 am
  #3122  
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Originally Posted by fx12002
Is this because the lower the fare bucket available, the more likely they are to open R space? So, Z0 is bad because if they feel no need to open up deep discount buckets, they are less likely to ever open R space? As the flight gets closer with unsold inventory, do they typically start going up the alphabet in terms of cheaper buckets or is it totally route dependent?

Thanks!
Kacee has given a good explanation; however, technically its not up the alphabet but rather down the fare ladder.
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Old Sep 7, 2018, 11:57 am
  #3123  
 
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Originally Posted by mike2003242
I'm 1K and flying next Friday September 14th EWR-FRA UA 960 on a Q fare. Yesterday it was at J9 today its J6 but its showing more than 6 seats open. I was hoping with J9 yesterday that my odds were good but I'm not so sure now.
The news are getting a little better. Today it shows only 28/39 sold. I have to look if they are opening cheaper fares for Polaris Business.

It's still P0, PN0 and obviously R0 but they have opened Z fares albeit at a price more expensive than yesterday which may make sense as it's a flight one week away but I wonder if they have cheaper Z fares if the passenger is going further East or is not starting at EWR.

Last edited by StuckinITH; Sep 7, 2018 at 12:04 pm
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Old Sep 8, 2018, 4:29 pm
  #3124  
 
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH
The news are getting a little better. Today it shows only 28/39 sold. I have to look if they are opening cheaper fares for Polaris Business.

It's still P0, PN0 and obviously R0 but they have opened Z fares albeit at a price more expensive than yesterday which may make sense as it's a flight one week away but I wonder if they have cheaper Z fares if the passenger is going further East or is not starting at EWR.
ugh, my plans changed now I'm flying IAH-FRA on the 23rd, odds dont look that great on this one either 37 out of 50 sold with D=4 and Z=0.
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Old Sep 10, 2018, 10:29 am
  #3125  
 
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Hi folks, I must book travel to China on 10/10, returning 10/18. Looking to buy V/W fare to apply a GPU. I can fly SEA—SFO—PEK, or SEA—SFO—PVG. Right now, 889 (SFO to PEK) is showing 25/60 booked and 857 (SFO to PVG) is 9/48 booked (data from cablepick). Return seems wide open, although there is no R listed available (this flight must be PEK—SFO to accommodate my schedule). I’m 1K. Thoughts on the better outbound flight? I’ve seen rumors of trade shows in China in October taking Polaris space on planes...don’t know if this comes into play. Thank you, for your valuable advice!
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Old Sep 10, 2018, 1:03 pm
  #3126  
 
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Hey everyone. Here's my situation.

Flying LHR - SFO on 9/15. Current itinerary has me on flight 949 out of LHR. 1K status and have a B fare and GPU is waitlisted since 6/15. Currently it looks like there are 6 seats unsold (J6 C6 D6 Z4 P2). Thinking I may be pretty high due to the B fare, but then again these LHR - SFO flights can disappear overnight.

Thinking of switching to another flight such as 959 LHR - ORD which looks like it has 12 seats available. Not the Polaris hard product, but would gladly take it vs flying in E+.

Is changing a good move or should I hope that my fare and time on the list will get me on upgraded on the nonstop?

Last edited by KJ1979; Sep 10, 2018 at 4:20 pm
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Old Sep 10, 2018, 2:23 pm
  #3127  
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Originally Posted by KJ1979
Is changing a good move or should I hope that my fare and time on the list will get me on upgraded on the nonstop?
I would never pay a change fee unless I could change into open R.

I would watch for R on alternative flights, particularly within your SDC window.
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Old Sep 10, 2018, 4:15 pm
  #3128  
 
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Thanks, Kacee.

Maybe I'm mistaken, but doesn't the SDC window screw with my GPU and run the risk of not even making it to the gate list? Happy to be wrong about that
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Old Sep 10, 2018, 4:19 pm
  #3129  
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Originally Posted by KJ1979
Maybe I'm mistaken, but doesn't the SDC window screw with my GPU and run the risk of not even making it to the gate list? Happy to be wrong about that
I'm not sure what you're asking. The rules don't permit waitlisting within T-24, so you would only SDC to clear into open R. You would have to call to do that.
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Old Sep 10, 2018, 4:30 pm
  #3130  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
I'm not sure what you're asking. The rules don't permit waitlisting within T-24, so you would only SDC to clear into open R. You would have to call to do that.
Sorry, was unclear on the process. So basically I just need to be maniacally checking for R on all flights over the next few days. If I see it, then call up and ask to be moved to the flight in question? That answers my concern about SDC and waitlist, makes sense. Thanks for helping a noob
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Old Sep 10, 2018, 4:59 pm
  #3131  
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Originally Posted by KJ1979
So basically I just need to be maniacally checking for R on all flights over the next few days. If I see it, then call up and ask to be moved to the flight in question?
Yes, exactly. You'll get a pretty good sense which flights are possibles, and can then focus your maniacal checking on those

I think LAX will be your best shot, at P6 PN2. Although UA949 is not hopeless at J6 P2.
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Old Sep 10, 2018, 10:26 pm
  #3132  
 
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UA1 on 14 Nov (Wednesday), booked L class + MUA.
22 seats left, J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z1 ZN1 P0 PN0 R0 RN0.

Guessing it's going to come down to the wire, would getting up to Plat (from Gold) help that much? I'm ~2000 PQM short right now.

Kind of annoyed, specifically booked midweek, but it looks like Tuesday has more free space. :\
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Old Sep 10, 2018, 10:35 pm
  #3133  
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Originally Posted by ajgarett
UA1 on 14 Nov (Wednesday), booked L class + MUA.
22 seats left, J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z1 ZN1 P0 PN0 R0 RN0.

Guessing it's going to come down to the wire
Only if you're lucky. Nine weeks out, that flight shows all signs of booking full a week or two out, with maybe a GS or two clearing at the gate.

Originally Posted by ajgarett
would getting up to Plat (from Gold) help that much? I'm ~2000 PQM short right now
Probably not.

Have you looked at the upfare to P on the NRT routing? It's pretty cheap (relatively speaking).
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Old Sep 11, 2018, 6:07 am
  #3134  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
Yes, exactly. You'll get a pretty good sense which flights are possibles, and can then focus your maniacal checking on those

I think LAX will be your best shot, at P6 PN2. Although UA949 is not hopeless at J6 P2.
Just landed in LHR to find R5 RN5 on the LAX flight. Thanks for the help Kacee. As much as I love a nonstop and the Polaris on the 777-300, I think I'm gonna make the change.
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Old Sep 11, 2018, 8:22 am
  #3135  
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Originally Posted by KJ1979
Just landed in LHR to find R5 RN5 on the LAX flight. Thanks for the help Kacee. As much as I love a nonstop and the Polaris on the 777-300, I think I'm gonna make the change.
That's worth a change fee!
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