Originally Posted by junebeforejuly (Post 36084898)

Thank you! Would I be able to upgrade instantly through PZ availability even if there are PNs still open? Or would the fact that PNs are open and prioritized because of GS mean that even if PZ opens and I reapply for an upgrade, I’d still be waitlisted?

Originally Posted by junebeforejuly (Post 36084854)

If PZ ever opens up (from monitoring this route over the last week for other days, it looks like PZ and PN open up the same time, and some flights that departed this week had PZ9 and PN9 a few days before departure), would it be safer to just cancel my upgrade request by phone and then try to instantly upgrade on the website using miles and dollars? Or is that too risky? I’m not even sure what my upgrade odds are, so it’s hard to know what my expectations and strategy, if any, should be. Any guidance would be super appreciated! Thank you!

Originally Posted by jsloan (Post 36085312)

Welcome to FlyerTalk. This is a bit of an odd one. Because the flight is showing as sold out in PE, I wonder if it might actually be oversold in PE. In that case, and only in that case, upgrades from PE to J would be processed ahead of Global Services upgrades from Y to J. So, supposing that you were behind 8 GS passengers in Y -- unusual, but not farfetched if there happen to be two families traveling on your flight -- your effective spot on the upgrade list might be better than it looks.

Of course, a couple of misconnecting passengers in PE can clear up the oversell, so I agree that you should be vigilant and watch for PZ2 or higher. And, of course, if any PE passengers have status higher than Gold, and they decide to upgrade, they'll leap past you on the list (but why would they wait this long before attempting to upgrade?)

Good luck!

Originally Posted by lincolnjkc (Post 36085588)

Flight shows one unassigned seat in PP, PP is unavailable for new bookings and fare buckets are showing as below but this is also a continuous pricing route...
J4 JN4 C4 D3 Z2 P2 PN0 PZ0 I0 IN0 O0 ON0 A0 R0 RN0
Y9 YN9 B9 M8 E5 U4 H0 HN1 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 X0 XN0

Originally Posted by jsloan (Post 36085312)

Welcome to FlyerTalk. This is a bit of an odd one. Because the flight is showing as sold out in PE, I wonder if it might actually be oversold in PE. In that case, and only in that case, upgrades from PE to J would be processed ahead of Global Services upgrades from Y to J. So, supposing that you were behind 8 GS passengers in Y -- unusual, but not farfetched if there happen to be two families traveling on your flight -- your effective spot on the upgrade list might be better than it looks.

Of course, a couple of misconnecting passengers in PE can clear up the oversell, so I agree that you should be vigilant and watch for PZ2 or higher. And, of course, if any PE passengers have status higher than Gold, and they decide to upgrade, they'll leap past you on the list (but why would they wait this long before attempting to upgrade?)

Good luck!

Originally Posted by junebeforejuly (Post 36085628)

Thank you! FlyerTalk has been so helpful in terms of navigating all of this. I think you’re right! The eight GS ahead of me appear to be split between two families (family of five, family of three) booked in economy. And right now this independent site says PE is oversold by exactly two seats. So I guess it’s kind of impossible to tell what my odds are if things hold—if the PE remains oversold at time of flight, then I probably jump ahead. But if not, then I’m probably out of luck. I can’t tell if I even want PZ seats to release before the flight at this point haha. United really weaves some tangled upgrade webs.

Originally Posted by pampa (Post 36046830)

I'll be on UA 845 ORD-GRU on 3/16 (14 Polaris seats left, 3 premium left) and on UA 63 on 3/29 3/28 GRU-IAH (28 Polaris seats left, 4 premium left). My employer bought Q and S fares. I have already requested the upgrade with miles + money for both premium and polaris. What are the odds of getting upgraded on those flights? Or maybe it's too early to tell?
Thanks.

Originally Posted by jsloan (Post 36046935)

Silver would probably not have made an appreciable difference on these flights. Long-haul flights' upgrade lists are disproportionally tilted toward GS/1K flyers, because PlusPoints are generally a more economical upgrade mechanism than miles + copay.

OK, so with the confirmed dates: the seat map isn't a great indicator of load, because not everyone picks a seat. Starting with the outbound: if you look at the inventory of ORD-GRU, in expert mode, you'll see J9 C9 D9 Z6 P0, meaning there are at least 9 Polaris seats available, of which they're willing to sell 6 at a Z fare, but then O1 A0 R0, meaning that they're only selling one additional PE seat. That tells you two things: (a) there is probably no more than 1 seat available in PE, and (b) UA isn't so desperate to sell J that they're willing to oversell PE. My guess is that they wouldn't upgrade more than 1-2 passengers here, probably just those with status. You might end up in PE, though, because those upgrades might come from PE and thus empty a seat for you. I'd say your odds are 10% Polaris, 15% PE, 75% Y.

On the return flight, the inventory is more promising: J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 PN0 PZ0 / O4 A1 R0. The presence of P9 means that UA is willing to sell at least 9 Polaris seats at their cheapest fare; PN0 means that they're not willing to process any upgrades yet, even for Global Services members. Similarly, O4 A1 mean that there are likely 4 PE seats available, one of which they're willing to sell at a discount. However, this has to be counterbalanced against the fact that they've got two more weeks to fill the seats.

Because the waitlist is ordered by status, passengers who haven't purchased a ticket yet might still hop in front of you on the waitlist, so I still don't think your odds are great, but I might got as high as 35% Polaris, 15% PE, 50% Y on the return. Note that you may benefit from mis-connects at ORD on the way south, but less so at GRU on the way north; UA doesn't sell many connecting tickets through GRU.

Good luck!

Originally Posted by catahoulafriend (Post 36093972)

Hello FT community, I’ve booked PE (R class) on UA 880 (IAH to LHR) for Tuesday, April 30. I’m 1K and threw my last thirty PP at a Polaris upgrade (believe it or not, I’ve burned through all my PP w/international travel upgrades so far this year, for myself and helping family as well…). I’m curious your thoughts on two things. First, upgrade chances (if we’re not too far in advance…), and why PN & PZ space is not listed in the Expert Mode. For example, all I see are: J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z6, ZN6, P2, IN0, O9, ON9, A3, R0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, etc. Does United not list this inventory until closer to departure date? Thanks for feedback/advice!

Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 36093974)

Did you search IAH-LHR flight alone? If you did that, you would see PN and PZ spaces.

Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 36093974)

Did you search IAH-LHR flight alone? If you did that, you would see PN and PZ spaces.

Originally Posted by hgarhan7 (Post 36098061)

Hi All!

My husband and I are headed to Europe in 11 days. We already cleared into Polaris on the way home, but I am hopeful to clear on the outbound. We are flying ORD-FCO on April 1. Lucky for us, as of next weekend United changed the planes from a 787-8 to a 787-10 with a bigger Polaris cabin! I did the date change trick and we are 1-2 on the upgrade list coming from Premium Economy on my 1k plus points. The data change also showed 28/44 Polaris booked and 17/21 PE.

What are the odds we clear and what are the odds we clear in time to pre-order a meal?

As of this morning:
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O4 ON4 A3 R1 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G0 XN9 X9

Originally Posted by jsloan (Post 36046935)

Silver would probably not have made an appreciable difference on these flights. Long-haul flights' upgrade lists are disproportionally tilted toward GS/1K flyers, because PlusPoints are generally a more economical upgrade mechanism than miles + copay.

OK, so with the confirmed dates: the seat map isn't a great indicator of load, because not everyone picks a seat. Starting with the outbound: if you look at the inventory of ORD-GRU, in expert mode, you'll see J9 C9 D9 Z6 P0, meaning there are at least 9 Polaris seats available, of which they're willing to sell 6 at a Z fare, but then O1 A0 R0, meaning that they're only selling one additional PE seat. That tells you two things: (a) there is probably no more than 1 seat available in PE, and (b) UA isn't so desperate to sell J that they're willing to oversell PE. My guess is that they wouldn't upgrade more than 1-2 passengers here, probably just those with status. You might end up in PE, though, because those upgrades might come from PE and thus empty a seat for you. I'd say your odds are 10% Polaris, 15% PE, 75% Y.

On the return flight, the inventory is more promising: J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 PN0 PZ0 / O4 A1 R0. The presence of P9 means that UA is willing to sell at least 9 Polaris seats at their cheapest fare; PN0 means that they're not willing to process any upgrades yet, even for Global Services members. Similarly, O4 A1 mean that there are likely 4 PE seats available, one of which they're willing to sell at a discount. However, this has to be counterbalanced against the fact that they've got two more weeks to fill the seats.

Because the waitlist is ordered by status, passengers who haven't purchased a ticket yet might still hop in front of you on the waitlist, so I still don't think your odds are great, but I might got as high as 35% Polaris, 15% PE, 50% Y on the return. Note that you may benefit from mis-connects at ORD on the way south, but less so at GRU on the way north; UA doesn't sell many connecting tickets through GRU.

Good luck!