Kacee

And I'm saying it doesn't mean anything because UA has changed how it's handling premium cabin inventory. They are simply not opening discount J inventory on many routes for Jan/Feb 2019 (and beyond). Even on easy upgrade routes, with wide open cabins.

In this context, D0 simply does not have the same brutally negative connotation it did under the old rules. It no longer means "based on historical data, we expect to sell all the seats at full fare"; rather, it means "we're going to hold the inventory back, and hope the customers blink before we do." Yes, a game of chicken.

jjmoore

It's probably destination specific... and I don't have any experience flying the day after Thanksgiving, so I am a bad source of info here. Are you saying the ticket pricing has lined up pretty well now with Sunday pricing? As for upgrades on the Sunday after Thanksgiving, I can't remember the last time I received one. It's not because the seats aren't available, but many people are using instruments, which puts them above my CPU, and I am never above #5 or 6 on the list at the gate. Even with blocked seats, I usually have missed. Have to go back 6 or 7 years to the times 1K's actually had a good chance to upgrade... this is probably the last time I had an upgrade on STL-DEN or ORD-DEN or CUN-DEN for the Thanksgiving holiday. Between then and now, I have missed every time on these routes, as well as AUS-DEN and MCO-DEN.

Most TPAC routes (and TATL / India) are very difficult to gauge. Seat maps are absolutely no indicator (I have seen a completely open seat map and called in for inventory update to find out that a group of 20 purchased but didn't select seats). Additionally, most business travelers (myself included) don't usually book these tickets until 2-4 weeks prior. My experience watching seat maps and inventory affirm this, and you will see inventory crater during that time.... especially on the peak days (Friday night flights TPAC, Saturday night flights TATL, etc.). The one indicator you have is fare buckets. If D0, Z0, P0, PN0, PZ0 with a wide open seat map, UA is hedging that they will sell all the inventory at full price in the J and C buckets. Simple as that (I have learned this the hard way!).

fumje

Yes, my observation at least is that now the price differential for Friday to Sunday has come down; it used to be close to double, but now my qualitative-quantitative sense is that it is only 10-20% different (the prices for Friday have gone up). I think that has been effected by restricting the discount inventory for Friday and Saturday. The same seems to be the case for Christmas +/-1 flying, as well.

Of course, I am only looking at a handful of routes as are applicable for me, typically TCON, so I could be not seeing it still happen elsewhere.

Kacee

It depends on the route and when you're looking. Inside eight weeks, reasonably accurate predictions can be made based on day of week, bookings, inventory, and how the inventory has been moving. Though in many cases the prediction will be "can't tell, it may go to the gate."

jjmoore

I would definitely keep an eye out as the time approaches. I have seen UA open up discount fare buckets closer to departure date (even for the day before Thanksgiving) if seats aren't selling. By this, I mean like 7 days before. If inventory is tight, this will certainly not happen.

StuckinITH

If it goes to the gate, it might be lost to passengers purchasing the TOD.

jjmoore

This is a fantastic perspective... this makes all the sense in the world. Won't take it as bible, but this certainly makes more sense than anything.

jjmoore

Depends on the route.

The p.s. are notorious for selling upfares at OLCI for stupid low rates like $299, which is why the gate never works anymore for those routes. SIN-SFO had a couple seats a couple weeks ago and they were trying to get $1600 for them... one bit, but the other seat went to the upgrade list. Had the OLCI offer been more like $1200, they both would have sold, as a guy standing next to me in line mentioned he would have bought it for less, and he was just one data point.

Scattered

I am flying SIN-SFO on Thursday, December 6th. I booked a K fare and then used United miles + the copay to waitlist for an upgrade. This is my first time flying a long flight like this or using miles to upgrade (most of my flights are less than 1.5 hours) so I'm wondering what my odds are of getting the upgrade. I'm a Silver so I'm not super hopeful but I figured it would be good to check with the FT gurus here.

This is what BCD Travel is showing for fare classes, so it seems like there are a lot of seats still open: J9 C9 Y9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K3 N9

jsloan

Your flight is booked 20/48 in business class, and its business class inventory is J9 C9 D9 Z0. The evening flight that day is booked 42/48 (!). The previous night's flight is booked 25/48.

Factors to consider:

• most business travel is booked less than three weeks from departure
• every 1K/GS member on the plane likely has an instrument upgrade waitlisted
• some gold/platinum members may also have miles + copay instruments waitlisted
• the evening flight is going to be prohibitively expensive for many customers, so they may book onto the morning flight instead
• UA believes they don't need to offer a big discount to entice additional bookings

I'd agree with your assessment; your chances are slim.

Scattered

Thanks jsloan, that is good information to know! I will keep my fingers crossed and be happy if I can at least grab an E+ seat at check-in

Tex23

I just moved from Gold to 1K with a few expensive flights and now have RPUs/GPUs for the first time. I'm looking to use two for an AUS-SFO flight on 12/28. My preferred flight is UA455, showing:
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S2 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0
Thoughts on how likely two RPUs would be to clear booking today as 1K?

jsloan

AUS-SFO is a hit-or-miss route. It'll either clear so easily that you would have had a good chance with a CPU, or you'll be sweating it out to the gate (at best). That particular week, I wouldn't expect much business travel due to the holidays, so I'd say your chances are pretty good.

Hipplewm

UA51 today 10 Nov

Cabins are listed as Full/Full, but previously there were 3 seats in Business available and it was listed as 27 +1 blocked and then I looked a few hours later and everything went to full and it appears only 1 seat in Business is not selected.

I am 3rd on the UG listed at T-12 hours

Personally I think I am screwed but Business was full when I booked (yesterday) and the small amount of time when i could book it added almost $7000 to my already $2500 one way coach ticket and I couldn't bring myself to do that to my boss.

milehighmel

We both made it! Phew!