jsloan

Leedsflyer

It was down to PZ1, so I just made it!

milehighmel

WineCountryUA

Nope -- this is not unusual

There are present 15 unsold seats (UA100, 7 Nov 2018)

exerda

IAD-DEN, first flight out on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, using a RPU. I suspect my chances are 0 and next to 0.

jsloan

milehighmel

So I will have a pretty good chance?

Kacee

You have a chance. It may or may not be a good chance. Depends on how many higher status passengers are ahead of you on the waitlist.

jjmoore

Correct. The Sunday after Thanksgiving would be 0% chance. Saturday is a great day to travel... usually as little as half the cost of flying that Sunday or Monday.

fumje

Is this still true? (The pricing.) I have had a habit of travelling either Friday or Saturday after Thanksgiving, but in the past couple of years I haven't seen the same price differential. Last year I flew Friday, and it was a madhouse at IAH.

Wonderboynyc

I have searched thread for GPU options so have some good background. I know it is a guessing game but curious if anyone has any experience on this route in Feb? I am old Gold/Plat but new 1K so haven't played the GPU lottery much.

My partner and I will be flying on saver biz award tickets to DEL via MUC on LH 4 Feb but return award flights not good. Attending wedding so dates not too flexible. Nonstop saver biz looks non-existent from what I can tell. However, the one way flights from DEL to EWR on Feb 15 look very reasonable. Right now W is around $840 one way. It seems like it might be a worthwhile gamble to purchase W and hope GPU clears for us. There isn't an availability now (see below) but it doesn't look like a popular or elite heavy route.

• J9 JN9 C9 D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0

Question: Anyone have any historical or background if there is a chance the GPUs would clear if we fly W (V is about $150 more so not sure if worth the fare class hedge) and when they tend to clear (x days out, battlefield, etc.)? Any suggestions or advice on other options that might be good? TIA. Really appreciate the expertise.

IAH-OIL-TRASH

Are you saying "it doesn't look like a popular or elite heavy route" based on a seat map for a mid-February flight? Pretty bad assumption if you are. Most business travelers aren't making reservations this early and with PN=0, there may already be Global Services people on the upgrade waitlist (as well as others). I'll let others weigh in on chances, but I'm just pointing out fallacy of using just seat map 3.5 months out in making conclusions about eventual fill (or composition) of fill.

Kacee

This is traditionally a difficult route to upgrade.

Inventory doesn't mean much this far out, particularly since UA is being especially tight with the discount business class inventory for 2019 right now.

Waitlisting >3 months out is basically a total crapshoot.

Wonderboynyc

I am basing that on the current flights going out of DEL to EWR. Many are not fully booked and have empty biz seats. It doesn't account for seasonality though. So perhaps a bad assumption. You are correct.

Thanks. for letting me know. I appreciate it.

jsloan

To the extent that it means anything, J9 C9 D0 is a terrible sign for an upgrade. However, I'm not sure where this falls on the dial between "United thinks it can sell all of the seats at C or J" and "United hasn't bothered trying to sell any discount seats yet because it's still too far away."

OP: W fares don't tend to change very often. On a flight where inventory is currently open all the way down to L9, you could consider waiting and seeing what happens to business class inventory. Your biggest risk is the W space disappearing, but it's not likely that there's an imminent danger of that due to the wide open coach availability. I'm not making a guarantee, mind you -- just stating some probabilities. If it were me, I'd wait.