Hi, can someone please give me their educated guess about my chances of getting upgraded?

Flight info is UA 875 (SFO - HND) on April 1st.

Background.... Silver Status, currently in 6th position for business. Originally paid for economy (S) and waitlist upgraded with 30k points and cash. I was upgraded to Premium Plus already automatically a few weeks ago (RN). Date of original ticket was 10/29/23

Seat map shows 17 open seats out of 49 (though I realize this might not be accurate).

Current avail fare classes copy and pasted:

• J9
• JN9
• C9
• D9
• Z9
• ZN9
• P9
• PN0
• PZ0
• IN0
• I0
• O9
• ON9
• A9
• R6
• RN0
• Y9
• YN9
• B9
• M9
• E9
• U9
• H9
• HN9
• Q9
• V8
• W3
• S0
• T0
• L0
• K0
• G0
• XN0
• X0

Thank you!

Edit: Update, I was upgraded this morning

I see, so it's better to stay #8 for Thursday than who knows what position on Wednesday, but potentially 10-16th?

Flying April 25th IAD-HND in premium plus. I just went into the upgrade offer section and for the first time I have ever seen the miles and money option says 6 seats left and not the usual "waitlist". I went and double checked the fare codes and saw PZ6.
Does this mean if I put for the miles and money or pluspoints it will immediately clear? Also could I have one upgrade sponsored with plus points and the other with miles and money, as my husband only has 40 pluspoints at the moment.

Yes, it will clear immediately.

You may be able sponsor one with each currency, but I believe you have to split the PNR, and while the most likely result of upgrading one reservation is for it to go to PZ5, it is possible that a single upgrade triggers UA’s computers to close the bucket entirely.

You will get the seats right away if you request for upgrades with either Pluspoints or miles+co-pay. If you use different upgrade methods (PPs on one, miles+co-pay on another), you will need to split the reservation. If you have a friend with 60 PPs, you can trade some miles plus 40 PPs with this person. This would be most cost effective approach.

do it asap.... :)

Thanks for the comments. Any notes to share regarding the nonstop CHC-SFO? Its a newer route for UA on the smaller 787-8 with 28 in Polaris. The load for this route normally (it operates 3x/wk)? The 777-300 operates from Auckland, just looking to avoid the extra connection.

UA760 from DEN to MUC on April 10. Booked about 2 weeks ago in Premium Plus, and immediately did a MileagePlus + copay upgrade request. UA silver. Currently waitlisted, seat map shows 9 empty Polaris at the moment but still 2 weeks out.

PP obviously helps me a lot but I’m thinking with the dearth of international nonstops out of DEN my chances aren’t great. Thoughts?

Did you get it ?

Inventory is J7 C7 D4 Z3 P1, which means that there are only seven seats left for sale (two booked pax must have not assigned seats). Every elite with higher status already in PP, plus anyone in Y using a GS instrument, will be ahead of you. I'd say your chances are pretty close to zero.

Yes, I got it. It's 14 hours so I definitely wanted to be able to sleep flat for a few hours. This flight is so wide open right now, I am pretty surprised by it. Maybe because of Golden Week?
I didn't bother with splitting the PNR and just used money and miles. I checked again this morning and it is down to PZ2.

So I didn't change my flight for tomorrow and just got upgraded (between T-36 and T-32ish). I think I was 7th yesterday or something.

Now, I was watching yesterday's UA 63 and something interesting happened. They had 26 out of 50 seats open at first. The list had 10 people on it. However, it only cleared at the time of boarding. So I assumed that for my flight tomorrow, I would only be cleared during boarding (if I made it) and not have lounge access.

However, for my flight, a lot of the people on the list were upgraded between T-36 and T-32 and with way less seats available (in fact, everyone yesterday was upgraded, while for my flight many won't be). So I wonder why the late upgrade on that flight and not on mine. Not that I'm complaining.

Congratulations. Hope that you will enjoy the flight and Polaris lounge at IAH.
You would get the upgrade cleared for today's flight, too, if you did change your flight. Most of those on both WLs are nonrevs. You would be placed ahead of all of them in WLs. Typically, United clears the WLs down to 3 seats at T-36 h, but nonrevs are cleared at gate.

Makes sense. Though, my understanding is Premium Plus clears before all Economy even GS. At least multiple articles report as such. Not that I expect that to make much difference. International flying from Denver is the worst 😜

Your understanding is incorrect, as are all of those articles. GS instruments in Y will clear before non-GS instruments in PE.

This is very misunderstood.
It is true for normal PZ upgrades BUT PN upgrades (those for GS or flyers using GS instruments) are always ahead others, as shown on UA's chart)

Upgrade to Polaris?
 

Hey all! New to this upgrade game. I purchased a ticket from SFO > ROME that departs in 25 days (United Premium Plus R). Currently, there are almost ~28 empty seats in Polaris on my outbound flight and about ~17 on my return flight. I can "upgrade my cabin" with points + cash (20k points + $425 each way). I have about 4500 points in United but a ton in Chase that I could transfer only thing is I rarely fly United, so I would prefer to transfer if my odds are good.

I am trying to use expert mode to determine:

1. What are the options for Polaris (given no status)?
2. Will more open up?
3. What are the odds of upgrading from Premium Plus > to Polaris given the available fare classes?
4. When the upgrade might clear before transferring points.

Thanks in advance for the advice!

SFO > FCO (Seat map says 28 available in Polaris)

• J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, PN0, PZ0, IN0, I0, O2, ON2, A1, R0, RN0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L9, K9, G0, XN9, X9

FCO > SFO (Seat map says 17 available in Polaris)

• J9, JN9, C9, D9, Z9, ZN9, P9, PN0, PZ0, IN0, I0, O4, ON4, A2, R0, RN0, Y9, YN9, B9, M9, E9, U9, H9, HN9, Q9, V9, W9, S9, T9, L9, K9, G0, XN9, X9

SFO-SIN A to J
 

Long time watcher, rare poster, thanks in advance / apologies for misses...
Lowly Silver (with a +1 no status, same PNR) both booked in PP (A) hoping for J, looking at applying miles+copay (waitlist of course) for SFO-SIN (and maybe vv but less important imo) in Mid-May, Thursday PM flight (UA1). Not seeing any options for cash only upgrade, may have something to do with it being an agency booking (A to J cash price from agency was too much).

From all my reading it looks like it's very unlikely to clear given the popularity of instruments on this route and UA waiting until the last minute to release any PZ, I spoke with UA yesterday who currently said 3x 1K on the list from PP w/instruments but we're ~6 weeks out (also why I am not posting inventory) which seems an eternity.

But for anyone with first hand experience ... Is there ... any realistic chance this could work out for us? Thanks in advance.

Welcome to FT!

I think that SFO-FCO is on Monday, April 22, but I cannot figure out the return date.
In an ideal world, you grab PZ space when it appears if mile transfer is instantaneous (PZ space will likely disappear in a few hours). You can monitor PN (and PZ) space more closely (daily) before deciding on transferring miles. Meanwhile, you can use the "date trick" to find your position on Polaris WL. If you have a good chance, transfer the miles and put yourself on WL. Do the same thing for the return trip. If it is in the middle of week, you will still have a chance.
Good luck!

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Thanks so much for the warm welcome and speedy reply!

The Return flight is on Thursday May 9. Right now, it's $1350 to upgrade in cash each way, which is a bit steep (but I flew biz last summer to Europe and know the benefits).

I am correct in understanding that my odds are good only if it is PN & PZ "fares." If that happens, I can add myself to the list. If those don't appear, is it worth going on the waitist (at least one way before)?

I am not familiar with the "date trick" - I only just learned of these other fares and expert mode last night and have been trying to understand - are you able to point me in the right direction (step by step would be appreciated)?

The word you're looking for is "inventory," not 'fares." Your upgrade requires space in the PZ inventory bucket (often, confusingly, called "fare bucket"), so if there are n people traveling, and you see PZn or higher, an upgrade would clear immediately (no need for the list). You cannot make use of PN inventory space to upgrade -- that's reserved for people using an upgrade instrument from a Global Services account. However, PN>0 is a good sign, as it means that UA isn't seeing the sales level it would like and is starting to be willing to upgrade some passengers.

In the more usual case that PZ=0, your upgrade would be waitlisted, as you suggested. If you had the miles to spare, I'd say to go ahead and add yourself to the list, but since you're talking about transferring Chase points, I'd be hesitant to do so just for a waitlist offer. At a minimum, I'd want to see PN9 before I transferred the points in: United miles are pretty definitively worth less than Chase points, especially if you have the Sapphire Reserve.

Honestly, even if I saw sufficient PZ space, I'd want to check the cash buy-up price before I gave up 4K United miles, 16K Chase points, and $425 for a Polaris upgrade. If the cash buyup were $750 or less, I'd probably just take that and save my points.

I think UA closed that loophole recently anyway.

It is very simple. On your smart device, change the date to your travel date. Open up united.com and find "flight status" then "Polaris upgrade" waitlist of your flight. You can only find out how many pax are on WL now. You will know your exact position on WL after requesting for upgrade. Meanwhile, you also check the "PremiumPlus upgrade" WL. Find the position of the first name appearing on both lists. You will be ahead of this person if requesting for upgrade now. This information will be useful before you decide on transferring miles.

If PZ is nonzero, you request for upgrade with miles+co-pay, you will get the seat immediately. If PZ is zero, you will be waitlisted. PN space (for Global Service's instruments) is always open before PZ space (for anyone else) is open. Because your trip is 25 days away, United can still sell a lot of tickets before opening up any space for upgrades. Your current WL position may be moved down if new pax with premier status who purchase PremiumPlus fare in the next 25 days.

Hope that these explanations do not confuse you too much. Good luck.

Add: Date trick is dead as mentioned by jsloan

It is a long shot, but strange things happen. For example, I was on UA2 this morning. The flight was full. There were a lot of non-revs on the upgrade list, who spilled over from UA28 the previous night. I thought the flight would be oversold, but they cleared the list with two open seats in Polaris. I didn’t think to check until an FA asked me why I didn’t try for an upgrade. I was surprised to see two open seats; it’s rare, but it happens.

Two open seats in J on UA2 even after all nonrevs cleared?! That's quite something.

I was stunned, particularly since about eight non-revs didn’t clear into UA28 on Wednesday night. Once that flight closed, they automagically appeared on the UA2 list. 😊

I was watching all the flights last night after UA1 was canceled on Tuesday. It was fun watching United juggle planes around to make UA2 happen this morning.

I think there is certainly a chance but from my experience you’ll probably need weather in Denver or Newark to have it happen.

Story: 1K applied PP for my wife on UA1. There was weather in Denver and she didn’t get to sfo on time - I checked UG list and there were 12 seats and 11 people on upgrade list so you’d have made it.

then - next day, bad weather again in Denver, she made it to sfo and pp cleared but everyone on upgrade list cleared again. Two days in a row but again - you probably need something like that to happen. ymmv

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What about the ZN inventory bucket?

ZN used to be used as inventory control for standard awards before they allowed all passengers last-seat access (at inflated prices). Today, I think we've sussed out that it can be used for the Skip the Waitlist feature with PlusPoints, but (a) you'd need to be a 1K traveler to use this, and (b) Skip the Waitlist is only available on long-haul South America routes.

TL/DR: You can safely ignore ZN.

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Thanks for clarifying there are so many different options, just wishful thinking over here :). Will continue to check for the PZ fare to pop up!

On UA28 on the return leg, may try to apply it there if no dice on the outbound. Thanks!

Thank You, since my origin is DEN, I guess I'll hope and not hope for weather ;) - guess we'll go for it and see what happens

For those interested, got cash offers for essentially fare-ups as soon as UA rep removed the errant segments to clear up the agency issue. Posted the SIN-SFO (reverse of what I was originally looking for and still may try to do Miles + CoPay there) in the appropriate thread.

I'm back in the US and actually the food was really good in that flight for the first time in many years.

One question - what would have happened if the flight was canceled after I upgraded? I assume I would go back to Economy, right? It took me two hours to get to the airport (but I was still there early). However, the crew also got stuck in the same traffic and the flight was about 40 minutes late (UA63). But we didn't know it at the time, so I was worried it would be canceled.

Did a quick search, but could not find the answer. Bought a flight for May from SFO-HKG in Economy. Used 30K miles plus $550 to upgrade to Polaris; wait-listed. Any experts here care to share typically when this would clear? Does UA release seats periodically and we get upgraded accordingly to priority list? Also, is there a way to check how far down the wait-list I am on? Thanks in advance.


alextktan

The waitlist can clear any time or never. Generally the best a no status passenger can hope for is close to departure, if at all
There is a prioritization of the waitlist. Status is first, then fare class and then a bunch of other items -- such as credit card type,.... and for filghts with PremPlus (aka Premium Economy) those customer s are ahead of economy customers (unless linked to the super top level status, Global Services)

Thanks for quick response. I am UA Gold and have the United Club CC. Will it help? Thanks!


alextktan

In practical terms, not much. On international waitlists, the vast majority of names are Global Services or 1K, because PlusPoints expire quickly, don’t require a co-pay, and can only be used for upgrades. None of those three things apply for miles, so the number of passengers on a given waitlist with Silver or no status is generally small and often zero.

As a Plat in PremPLus witha Club Card,generically might give myself less than 20% chance but it varies depending on actual routing and day of the week. Without more detials hard to provide more guidance.

As for seeing the list, UA makes that visible 2-3 days in advance There use to be a hack to see it earlier but that appears to have been closed. Calling might get an answer but be aware many late bookers will get ahead of you as time of request is only matters as tie break if all other parameters are equally. Status being the most important and fare (& PremPlus if long haul) , the rest are just small differentiators.

The other day I was #8 on the CPU list for a FLL-EWR flight on an "L" fare. I applied my own GS PPs, and remained at #8. I called GS, and they acknowledged the seven above me were all GS (or GS-sponsored) with PP on higher fares. First time I've been so low with PPs applied, and never worse than first loser.

Interesting. You, as a GS with lower fare, was below a GS sponsored none-GS at higher fare. So in this case fare trumps status?

Non-GS when on the same PNR, are prioritized as GS (substitute any status level for GS and the same is true -- all on a PNR are prioritize together per the highest elite.

Booked UA1835 from LAX to IAD for this Thursday (4/4) in class T one week or so ago.
8 out of 20 seats in Business still appear to be bookable right now. As a GS, when would seats be released for upgrades?