WineCountryUA

The pattern of late purchases via by route, by season, by day of the week -- so no hard rule can be made for all routes. Same with the probable pattern of folks taking the cash upgrades.

The Expert Mode data can provide encouragement or discouragement. No Z or P inventory is not good news, PN0 also is poor news. And of course, R0 is poor news. Having some inventory in these categories is better news.

Airport irrops and/or delays /cancellations of prior flights on the route can positively or negatively impact the last minute chances.

There are too many moving parts to every make a reliable estimate but watching the big picture can retrospectively provide color to the situation.

daisyatl

Thank you both! This is very helpful.

StuckinITH

The information about Business being sold 49/60 comes from the cablepick site: www.cablepick.net/united.

I have on a few occasions being upgraded 4 days prior to the flight. But it can also go up to the gate or even when you are already seated in your seat. If it's a reservation for one person it's easier than if it's for more passengers as they tend to release one R at a time unless Business is very undersold (but with PN=0 that's not the case).

tstauck

My last cash / miles combo upgrade cleared about 1.5 hours from departure. In fact, I was walking by the UC when I noticed it cleared, and since I suddenly had access I went it. The boarding pass on my phone hadn't even refreshed yet. but they figured out no problem and issued my new BP in 1st.

Good luck!

jjmoore

That's great....

One thing I would recommend to all those reading this forum is..... always check the fare difference to buy up to W (to apply a GPU)... many times the fare difference from the super cheap booking class to W is similar to the copay or even less in some instances (especially when I have seen TPAC fares in V for $500-600 each way while G fares were in the $250 range each way). For my PEK-SFO return a couple weeks ago, the fare difference to W was similar to the copay, so I paid up to W and used a GPU instead of miles + copay. Remember in this case, the additional fare will earn you the additional PQD and award miles vs. the copay + miles option, which gets you nothing for the extra $$.

Of course... if you don't have GPU's, this isn't an option, so not applicable to everyone. Just a good rule of thumb if you have instruments.

In the case you have already purchased a super cheap G or K fare, most phone agents will waive the change fee for you to simply upfare the ticket.... just another FYI.

bariww

Anyone have any thoughts on this? IAH-ORD-FCO is another option for us....

Aussienarelle

+1: I always do the comparison. My formula (I am a bit of a math geek): If K + co-pay < W, then K + MUA. If K + co-pay > W, then W + GPU.

I also look at P prices but for 2018 the price for the P fares has been too high for my taste for most of the flights I have considered.

BTW, unlike others I do not assign a monetary value to my miles for the MUA - it is all about the cash out of pocket for me.

In the case for my flight in December I had no GPUs available and the price of the K fare was very, very low, such that for the formula I use I still would have purchased the K fare.

Aussienarelle

I cannot comment on the likelihood for the upgrade (not my area of expertise and the upgrade odds tend to confound me). Travel in August to Europe is always a bit of a roulette. Sometimes the upgrades come through but other times you will be in Y. When I am uncertain if I will be in Y or upgraded, my usual strategy is to try and reduce the amount of time in the air for the TATL. If I think the upgrade will come through, or it is a day time flight and I do not care then I will fly the TATL as long as possible. Did you check IAH-EWR-FCO as an option? For my flights to LHR I know an upgrade is usually possible on the EWR flights, although I personally hate flying through EWR.

I do not understand why you purchased/plan to purchase a "W" fare if you plan to use a MUA + co-pay. Or are you hoping to be higher in your MP category for the upgrade by purchasing a W? For my MUA + co-pay I purchase the least expensive fare possible (but I am a 1K) - this way if the upgrade does not come through I do not feel like I paid too much for my E+ seat.

Kacee

Probably because they are originating at IAH. The cheapest fare IAH-FCO UA offers is an S (one bucket below W), and I wouldn't be surprised if that was sold out.

Aussienarelle

except the posting shows K4 ?

Kacee

You are confusing inventory availability with fare availability. UA doesn't publish a K for IAH-FCO for an August 9 departure. Ergo, one cannot purchase a K for that route.

StuckinITH

Through ORD, there's about the same number of unsold Business seats than through IAD. The only advantage of flying through ORD is if you get upgraded prior to your flight you get access to the Polaris Lounge (I don't know when the IAD one opens).

I'm assuming from your post that you have no status at all. Here's what I would do myself if I were in your situation. I would purchase the trip IAH-IAD-FCO now. My preferred seats are still available in Economy +: a two seater bulkhead or a two seater exit row. (disclosure: I'm just average size for a US man, and don't mind that they are slightly narrower than other seats). I would purchase the fee for Economy +. Naturally, if you have retained Platinum or Gold status, there's no fee and you can immediately get those seats.

It seems that you can still purchase S fare for your departure date. Check the difference with the W fare that you want to purchase. If the difference is very big, just purchase the S fare. (I just checked this and it seems that the difference in price between these two fares is small so W fare is good).

Then, I would waitlist the miles + copay to upgrade to Business. I don't know if you will have to buy your husband's and your tickets separately but that is the way my wife and I have to do it since I need to submit my receipts at work. And, anyways, it would be our preferred way to book our tickets as it's easier to upgrade one person at a time as many times they release one R at a time. Naturally, if you don't like to seat in separate classes that would not work for you but then your chances of upgrades are less.

I don't know if you get TODs when you have waitlisted miles + copay as my wife and I have always managed to get upgraded at least 2 days before the flight when we applied those. FWIW, when we waitlisted GPUs, we did get TODs.

If you get upgraded, United will reimburse the fee for Economy +.

PS: You have asked exactly the same question in two different threads. I seem to remember that that is against the rules. But since you are a newcomer, just remember this for next time you have a question.

bariww

Did you check IAH-EWR-FCO as an option? For my flights to LHR I know an upgrade is usually possible on the EWR flights, although I personally hate flying through EWR.

I do not understand why you purchased/plan to purchase a "W" fare if you plan to use a MUA + co-pay. Or are you hoping to be higher in your MP category for the upgrade by purchasing a W? For my MUA + co-pay I purchase the least expensive fare possible (but I am a 1K) - this way if the upgrade does not come through I do not feel like I paid too much for my E+ seat.[/QUOTE]

The EWR - FCO flight has 5 out of 30 business seats booked so there's no way anyone's getting upgraded on that one, lol. My husbands company is paying for our flights and for whatever reason they're booking us in W. My ultimate goal is to get into business any way i can - MUA + $$, buy-up, TOD. Whatever it takes. I just don't know what my best bet is between the IAH-ORD-FCO or IAH-IAD-FCO flights.

StuckinITH

My wife would say it's kif-kif bourricot. Meaning, it will be the same. One of those flights has one more Business seat already sold.

Upgrading two passengers on the same reservation will be harder so if it happens chances that it will be at the gate or even when you are already seated in your coach seat. With PN0 means that there may even be some GS waitlisted not to talk about other high status passengers.

johnathome

Had to book a last minute flight from EWR to PEK this Saturday, 6/9. At the time, there were plenty of J seats. However also lots of Y seats and looking like I will have no companions next to me. Was offered a ridiculous price to upgrade so passed. Now T24, went to see if there was an opportunity to buy up but there was no option for either GPU, MUA or pay. Still shows 2 seats available with 2 people on the upgrade list.

Surprised UA doesn't try to sell those seats.