edcho

IMO DL won't post impressive numbers for awhile as they grow their hub in SEA.

787fan

I understand that, but I see something like $400m mark down for DL's fuel hedges. That's a very significant screw up on their hedging strategies.

787fan

Somewhat agreed. Although I would think their reckless expansion at LAX would contribute to that as well.

They're essentially using the heartland dominant hubs to subsidize the coastal ones.

channa

Reckless or strategic? Sure they're taking a haircut at first, but if they can overtake UA's dominance, this may be very lucrative in the long run.

A major carrier needs to be well established in LAX.

cerealmarketer

UA hasn't really dominated LAX since 2001 and this decade no single carrier has dominated. The big 3 all have a sizeable presence now.

Back in 2001 UA had over 20% share if you count CO (about 18% without).
AA was around 15% and Delta + NW around 10%.

By 2010 they had shrunk to neck in neck with AA.

Here's 2006 absolute numbers:

AA: 9.2 + 1.5 = 10.7
UA: 9.8 + 2.3 = 12.1
DL: 4.4 + 2.3 = 6.7

2010:

AA: 8.5 + 1.9 = 10.4
UA: 7.7 + 2.5 = 10.2
DL: 6.5

2013:

AA: 10.6 + 2.0 = 12.6
UA: 11.0
DL: 9.0

Unfortunately can't find the pre 2006 absolute numbers, just someone's reference of 2001 market share. But you get the point UA or anyone hasn't been a clear leader at LAX for a while.

NoLaGent

As a frequent reader of the Upsell & TOD threads, has anyone analyzed the ancillary revenue figures yet?

I'm curious what kind of contributing factor that played.

UA-NYC

+1 - we all know UA leads the way in selling out upgrades from under its elites, so I'm sure it helped with the numbers

Cargojon

I was just thinking the same. Probably $800 million of this is $59 TOD upgrade to kettles

The only "bad" part here is that the constant devaluation of everything from CPU's to redemption values will be credited with this, so it's not unrealistic to expect more of the same.

iflyuaaa

I helped w yield and prasm as I booked all my flights on aa and I'm cheap. Well except now on my aa express flight 300 miles each way for $350 round trip.

ACVBear

and if they're making this much profit then losing the HVF that everyone keeps talking will be the downfall in the long run may not be much of a downfall

cerealmarketer

On the conf call...

The 763s are staying around through at least 2020. UA just announced they are refurbing them.

EWR764

Further, some 787-10 deliveries have been deferred into the 2020-2022 timeframe, from 2017-2018. It sounded like the company will maintain some flexibility to accelerate if needed. I think they are backing away from their initial post-merger capex binge and trying to be more judicious with their deployment of capital. A 763ER refurb is a great place to start.

Also some discussion of picking up some used 737-700s, I believe? I have been multitasking listening to the call and missed some discussion on that topic.

FWAAA

Perhaps, but UA's aggregate profit for the first 9 months of 2014 is exactly the same as AA's second quarter profit, $1.5 billion.

Year to date, DL has earned $3.45 billion, AA has earned $3.1 billion and UA has earned $1.5 billion.

UA had respectable profits in the second and third quarters. That's not an extremely difficult feat. It's those pesky fourth and first quarters that have challenged UA management since March 3, 2012.

All amounts above are "excluding special items." If special items are included, then UA's year to date profit is even more pathetic compared to DL and AA.

UA may have finally turned the corner, but the management incompetence that devastated the 2012 and 2013 results continues to weigh on the current results.

anc-ord772

Including leased 763's?
By refurb does that mean 3 class -> 2 class?

PV_Premier

props to UA for a nice report, looking forward to seeing more details particularly re: ancillary rev. i'm sure that with their PRASM numbers they are happy to be largely rid of me, considering my YTD UA spend has been about 7cpm. DL and AS seem to like my money so far.