craz

exactly my thoughts, anyone going for 1K will simply up fare whatever fare they will be buying. Most 1Ks Id assume who don't do MRs will be very close to $10k anyways, so most likely it wont require call that much extra out of their pockets.

I don't expect many who earned 1K by MRing to spend $10k to maintain that level, and will use the $25k on the CC for the wavier, ne result may actually be less $$$ coming into UA

DaviddesJ

But that would be good for them if they are losing money on the MRs.

exerda

UA doesn't lose money on MRs per se. They may lose them on the benefits accrued (status + miles) depending on how those are utilized. But someone was going to pay for the seat at the price the MR'er did, so it's a wash to UA on the MRs in and of themselves.

DaviddesJ

How do you know?

Without the MRers they could have offered fewer seats on that route, which would give them both lower costs and lower revenue. Whether they come out better or worse with the MRs is a complex calculation even for them (with the data), and impossible for us to say.

craz

A few yrs ago you may have ben on to something, once the industry shrank and consolidated the # of flights and # of seats, it doesn't hold water today. Alomost every flight Ive been on has had almost every seat occupied. X% will be folks who purchased a tkt and ended up not flying some will be on fullY = no fees to CX others will end up paying the $200 change fee

Almost every flight at T-7 days has tons of tkts available and it goes down to Y1-2-or3 by T-24 = they are selling very high fares. So unlike as yrs past the carriers today really don't need the MRers to fill its seats

And UA has done exactly what you said eg my PHL-SFO flight used to be only a 319 now its 320s and 738s = they know they can sell the seats. PHL-LAX was KOed completely. Other routes went from a 738 to a 319.

I also find if I don't grab that G fare asap its gone and doesn't reappear as it used to.

Im sure some folks who can afford it and need 1K will pony up the $10K , but comes 2015 Im equally positive there will be a heck of a lot less 1Ks then there are today and PPs will swell. Not many people who are on their own Dime will pony up the $10k since they wouldn't be getting enough back in return. Those on their employers Dime will do an MR or 2 if they see they will fall short but close to the $10K mark, but most likely will simply UPfare a trip simply to avoid having to do an MR

mgcsinc

So, you think UA offers MR-esque fares rather than reducing capacity? That would be, in a word, insane.

MR's are not keeping UA from doing a damn thing.

nerdbirdsjc

I'm new to the whole mileage run thing, but I'm looking at new job and thinking about consolidating to one airline to improve status. Even if I did move to one airline, I don't see myself spending money just to spend money.

bseller

Speaking for the poster - I'd say it's pretty simple:

UA doesn't LOSE money when it sells seats. It loses money when it sells them for less than it's costs.

MR's do NOT cause the loss of money. They simply pay for passage offered by UA.
Dave

Lori_Q

+1. Over the years there have been posts theorizing that mileage runners somehow hurt UA's business by snapping up cheap loss-leader fares. UA is a business. Their job is to manipulate the factors that affect the numbers (financial, efficiencies, etc.). Since cheap advance fares are offered frequently, and are available to anyone -- not just mileage runners -- it is reasonable to assume United knows how to sell their product profitably.

DaviddesJ

Of course. But that's got nothing to do with it. If the MRs went away then they would offer even fewer seats, and those would be full too.

Some will theorize that they could just do away with the MR-favorable fares if they wanted to discourage MRs. But that's easier said than done, for many reasons.

The one thing we know for sure is that UA has a lot more data about who flies on which fares on which routes and how profitable or unprofitable they are, than any of the posters here.

Of course. But that's a different question than whether the MRs are profitable. Grocery stores also know, very well, how to optimize their business. Coupons make their business more profitable. But they still lose money on the small fraction of shoppers who aggressively clip coupons and *only* buy stuff with huge discounts. That doesn't mean the coupons themselves are a bad idea; it does mean that certain customers are unprofitable because of the way they take advantage of the pricing scheme.

mgcsinc

You are very, very, very, very, very, very confused about why airlines are offering those fares.

Kacee

Or even better, they could offer no seats to anyone and the cost savings would be 100%.

I agree with mgcsinc.

DaviddesJ

That should concern you.

leonidas

Dollar runs lol. Would you buy the last minute $800 DCA-LGA flight for that?

exerda

Me, too.

Someone is going to buy those seats at the offered prices. The thought that this is somehow causing UA to fly larger planes than warranted is laughable.