steve64

Today, UAL is up over 5%
So I guess this means the integration issues are starting to settle down

ckaught78

If one believes in market efficiency then UAL's stock price already reflects the system integration changes. The market without a doubt had to assume there would be some issues with the integration and therefore the stock price adjusted for these issues long before the actual integration. How much these issues weighed on the stock price is a little harder to determine given the oil market as previously discussed as well as any other market influences. However, looking at the industry as a whole and tracking UAL's stock pre/post merger as well as pre/post integration along with their direct competitors, one should fairly easily be able to eliminate the fluctuations caused my the oil market and narrow in on the true affect the merger/integration has had on their overall market cap.

4BandE

Flyertalk members are the biggest shareholders, right?

Or it's all the investors are reading all these posts on the forum...

jwblue

Does anyone think this is a good or bad investment right now?

CubsFanJohn

IMO (personally) Airlines are never a good investment because the industry is WAY too volitailie to have a good indication on where the stock is heading e.g. fuel prices etc. Plus with United's sub-par RASM growth this past quarter and Operational woes it simply isn't a good investment.

Joshua

It's hard to imagine an industry with less potential for long-term growth than the airline industry, and it's hard to imagine an airline with less potential for profits than United.

FlyWorld

Anyone who thinks things will get better if only oil prices will stop rising must be delusional. Global macroeconomic trends clearly indicate that demand for oil will continue to increase, and it's been known for a long time that supplies of oil are shrinking, and the oil we're finding is becoming increasingly expensive to obtain. Airlines need to learn how to manage fluctuating oil prices that are likely to increase over the long term. Given all the fuel surcharges we pay, it's not clear to me why they can't seem to get this right.

I have held UAL stock since 2001. I sold it all recently. While it's true that $mi$ek and his beancounters outwardly appear to be more focused on money than their predecessors, I doubt this fiscal focus can outweigh their overall management incompetence, and I include in this category two broad issues: a) the alienation of their top-tier fliers, and b) their abysmal operational performance. It seems to me like they're missing the forest for the trees. So busy finding ways to micro-manage cost cutting that they've lost track of the big picture, whether it relates to the cost of their performance failures of the long term impact of alienating their best customers.

I don't claim to know how this will all play out over the next 2-5 years, but I can say that I've lost confidence.

JetAway

It's not even an "investment." It's throwing your money away.

WineCountryUA

As more then one senior airline executives/investor have said

FlightRN/EMT

A great time to buy.

iahphx

That is just so completely wrong. Wall Street's fascination with oil as a financial investment is what drives oil prices, not supply and demand. Indeed, the crazy high oil prices of the past decade are leading to a revolution in production -- at the same time as high prices are discouraging demand. It's hard to predict when investment demand for oil will decline -- perhaps when Bernanke stops printing money? -- but we have very little to worry about any "real" shortage in oil.


Hatred on this board for changes in frequent flyer benefits at UA -- as well as integration blips -- obscure the incredible changes in the airline industry in recent years, as well as the extraordinary assets now under UA's management. You have airlines (like US) achieving all-time record profits DESPITE record high oil prices and a lousy economy. Anyone who doesn't see that the industry has fundamentally changed has their head in the sand.

There are very real risks ahead for UA, and I generally wouldn't advise individuals to invest in any individual stocks in the current market environment. That said, from a comparative valuation standpoint, UAL looks attractive here.

flythewing

Integration blips? And, you say this in SEPTEMBER? REALLY?

star_world

Several people, including myself have commented that mergers of this scale can take at least a year to for IT integration to be completed (particularly in the airline industry with complex legacy systems, etc.) We're at 6 months now.

flythewing

I was not even thinking IT. More, mendacity under cover of 3/3.

star_world

Well, things were running smoothly on both sides, a large integration happened on 3/3, and there are subsequent issues. IT plays a huge role in the customer service experience in the airline industry.