Oct 15, 2020, 6:45 pm
Local lockdowns in the UK
Mar 21, 2022, 10:09 am
#9451
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Kent, UK
Programs: M&S Elite+
Posts: 3,657
Daily data:
Cases 75,508 (56,995 last Monday)
Deaths 56 (45)
Patients admitted 2,054 (1,644 the 8th)
Patients in hospital 14,948 (12,192 on the 11th)
Patients in ventilation beds 287 (254 on the 11th)
Vaccinated up to and including 20 March 2022:
First dose: 52,747,246
Second dose: 49,312,977
Booster: 38,648,211
The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 36.8% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 8.3%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 112.1 today.
Cases 75,508 (56,995 last Monday)
Deaths 56 (45)
Patients admitted 2,054 (1,644 the 8th)
Patients in hospital 14,948 (12,192 on the 11th)
Patients in ventilation beds 287 (254 on the 11th)
Vaccinated up to and including 20 March 2022:
First dose: 52,747,246
Second dose: 49,312,977
Booster: 38,648,211
The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 36.8% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 8.3%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 112.1 today.
Mar 21, 2022, 12:15 pm
#9452
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Thank you.
As you note many of these meta analyses predate covid, or at least only use evidence from prior to March 2020. They look at other viruses, and not covid. Not a critical problem in itself, but I think we always have to be cautious at extrapolation between viruses. I think the main issue though is that none of them reflect a reality where there are very high levels of protection from vaccines or prior infection to a virus - which is where we are in the UK with covid. My argument is that under those conditions it isn't clear face coverings have any real substantive effect in changing the course of spread primarily because any effect with face coverings is far outweighed with other factors now. Perhaps early on in the pandemic where there was no other real form of protection the use of face masks was useful and did have some impact. But quite simply now face coverings really provide marginal benefits when mandated in somewhere like the UK. If you really want to change the trajectory of infections it is clear the main way to do this is to basically prevent people mixing all together.
Btw I fully accept that comparing countries is far from perfect, there are so many other things at play and which differ that it's pretty much impossible to control for everything else and try and spot specifically what the impact of face coverings is. In the absence of other evidence tho, I think comparisons between England, Wales, and Scotland are not without merit since other factors are probably as similar as you could hope to get in the real world. I realise that comparison is still not perfect, but it does have some value I believe.
This is why I disagree that face coverings have a significant role to play in reducing cases, I don't believe there is evidence that in a highly protected population in the UK that the impact or role would be significant at all, and the case numbers when viewed across the UK and looking at differing face covering mandates since July 2021 doesn't seem to support such a claim.
As you note many of these meta analyses predate covid, or at least only use evidence from prior to March 2020. They look at other viruses, and not covid. Not a critical problem in itself, but I think we always have to be cautious at extrapolation between viruses. I think the main issue though is that none of them reflect a reality where there are very high levels of protection from vaccines or prior infection to a virus - which is where we are in the UK with covid. My argument is that under those conditions it isn't clear face coverings have any real substantive effect in changing the course of spread primarily because any effect with face coverings is far outweighed with other factors now. Perhaps early on in the pandemic where there was no other real form of protection the use of face masks was useful and did have some impact. But quite simply now face coverings really provide marginal benefits when mandated in somewhere like the UK. If you really want to change the trajectory of infections it is clear the main way to do this is to basically prevent people mixing all together.
Btw I fully accept that comparing countries is far from perfect, there are so many other things at play and which differ that it's pretty much impossible to control for everything else and try and spot specifically what the impact of face coverings is. In the absence of other evidence tho, I think comparisons between England, Wales, and Scotland are not without merit since other factors are probably as similar as you could hope to get in the real world. I realise that comparison is still not perfect, but it does have some value I believe.
This is why I disagree that face coverings have a significant role to play in reducing cases, I don't believe there is evidence that in a highly protected population in the UK that the impact or role would be significant at all, and the case numbers when viewed across the UK and looking at differing face covering mandates since July 2021 doesn't seem to support such a claim.
Now if you are arguing the cost-effectiveness angle, or the threat to the health care system angle, that's a slightly different sorry. But from an individual risk standpoint, imagine an infected idiot on a plane with no mask sneezing and coughing left and right. Or a mildly symptomatic one that sniffles and talks incessantly.
Last edited by nk15; Mar 21, 2022 at 12:23 pm
Mar 21, 2022, 12:33 pm
#9453
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Once you start citing dear old Eric in your arguments, I am afraid you are on a slippery slope away from reality. I am afraid he is a classic example of someone who is enjoying their moment in the spotlight a little bit too much and been wrong far too many times. I guess some people like being centre of attention, and if that involves hyping up dangers of the virus so be it as far as they are concerned.
Yes the Bangladesh study has been mentioned before on this thread. The study in Bangladesh may well have concluded masks are effective in Bangladesh. There are enough differences between the two countries to throw some doubt over whether such a study really has any applicability to the UK or indeed any highly developed and highly vaccinated western country. The way people live, work, interact, and socialise in Bangladesh is radically different compared to any highly developed western country. There is also a very different population density compared to the UK, and it may mean that effectiveness of masks in reducing infections might be a bit different. And as you note there is the issue of vaccination and antibody levels which are very different - according to the ONS I think about 95% or 98% of people have antibodies to covid in the UK.
So yes as I mentioned in previous posts, face masks might be more important in countries with low vaccination rates simply because there isn't any other way of reducing infection, but less important in countries with high vaccination rates like the UK. In fact the interesting IMF paper linked to in this thread before makes this exact point.
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Pu...print-pdf.ashx
Yes the Bangladesh study has been mentioned before on this thread. The study in Bangladesh may well have concluded masks are effective in Bangladesh. There are enough differences between the two countries to throw some doubt over whether such a study really has any applicability to the UK or indeed any highly developed and highly vaccinated western country. The way people live, work, interact, and socialise in Bangladesh is radically different compared to any highly developed western country. There is also a very different population density compared to the UK, and it may mean that effectiveness of masks in reducing infections might be a bit different. And as you note there is the issue of vaccination and antibody levels which are very different - according to the ONS I think about 95% or 98% of people have antibodies to covid in the UK.
So yes as I mentioned in previous posts, face masks might be more important in countries with low vaccination rates simply because there isn't any other way of reducing infection, but less important in countries with high vaccination rates like the UK. In fact the interesting IMF paper linked to in this thread before makes this exact point.
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Pu...print-pdf.ashx
Mar 21, 2022, 1:27 pm
#9454
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I don't know who Eric is, I just liked the vivid visuals of the transmission...Your argument about Bangladesh could also be the opposite, that their findings are suppressed because they may live in rural areas with better ventilation and a lot of time outside, as opposed to highly urbanized settings with poor ventilation, where the findings could be more pronounced.
Mar 21, 2022, 1:49 pm
#9455
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Your argument about Bangladesh could also be the opposite, that their findings are suppressed because they may live in rural areas with better ventilation and a lot of time outside, as opposed to highly urbanized settings with poor ventilation, where the findings could be more pronounced.
Mar 21, 2022, 4:14 pm
#9456
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 3,839
Once you start citing dear old Eric in your arguments, I am afraid you are on a slippery slope away from reality. I am afraid he is a classic example of someone who is enjoying their moment in the spotlight a little bit too much and been wrong far too many times. I guess some people like being centre of attention, and if that involves hyping up dangers of the virus so be it as far as they are concerned.
Mar 21, 2022, 5:26 pm
#9457
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Eric apparently has a lot to say about the pandemic......He makes some good points....Especially about dropping restrictions AND surveillance, while cases are clearly rising...
Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) / Twitter
Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) / Twitter
Last edited by nk15; Mar 21, 2022 at 5:37 pm
Mar 21, 2022, 5:47 pm
#9458
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Mar 21, 2022, 5:57 pm
#9459
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This is a bit of a strawman from dear old Eric, doing his best again to apply drama where it really isn't required 
Let's put it this way, no one sensible has actually said covid is over. In fact I think the point has been made many times by me and others that covid is going to be with us forever - which would seem to be the opposite of saying it is over. However, at some point we were always going to transition from a pandemic emergency type footing to one which was more about trying to live as normally as we did before with covid being endemic, this is the reality of how covid will play out. Considering the very high levels of protection in the UK for covid through vaccinations, and the low numbers of people in hospital, it does seem like a sensible time to do that transition.
The current increase is basically the BA.2 wave which will peak fairly soon within the next week or so at rates lower than the previous BA.1 omicron peak, and with minimal impact on the health service. It is inevitable that we will get many of these new small waves over the next few years, but short of some kind of break out from vaccination effectiveness, they won't cause any real issues with overwhelming the health service. If you are going to start panicking every time we have a new wave from a new strain, tbh you are going to find the next few years a bit draining emotionally.
Let's put it this way, no one sensible has actually said covid is over. In fact I think the point has been made many times by me and others that covid is going to be with us forever - which would seem to be the opposite of saying it is over. However, at some point we were always going to transition from a pandemic emergency type footing to one which was more about trying to live as normally as we did before with covid being endemic, this is the reality of how covid will play out. Considering the very high levels of protection in the UK for covid through vaccinations, and the low numbers of people in hospital, it does seem like a sensible time to do that transition.
The current increase is basically the BA.2 wave which will peak fairly soon within the next week or so at rates lower than the previous BA.1 omicron peak, and with minimal impact on the health service. It is inevitable that we will get many of these new small waves over the next few years, but short of some kind of break out from vaccination effectiveness, they won't cause any real issues with overwhelming the health service. If you are going to start panicking every time we have a new wave from a new strain, tbh you are going to find the next few years a bit draining emotionally.
Last edited by KARFA; Mar 21, 2022 at 6:10 pm
Mar 21, 2022, 7:26 pm
#9460
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Kent, UK
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Posts: 3,657
For the Bangladesh study, it was done in rural areas. They had control areas where masking was at 13.3% and intervention areas where they raised it to 42.3%. The number of people with covid like symptoms was 7.62% against 8.62% during that time. Masking at that level had reduced symptomatic seroprevalence by 9.3%. Make your own mind up on the significance of that.
I am in Bangladesh at the moment where masks are still mandated. Compliance is not that great and it is more a matter of personal preference. On internal flights it is 100% but everywhere else much reduced. For many buying a mask would mean not eating on that day. Most remove masks as soon as they get inside buildings... The police are not enforcing the rules - we travelled with police officers in our microbus yesterday and half of us without masks.
I am in Bangladesh at the moment where masks are still mandated. Compliance is not that great and it is more a matter of personal preference. On internal flights it is 100% but everywhere else much reduced. For many buying a mask would mean not eating on that day. Most remove masks as soon as they get inside buildings... The police are not enforcing the rules - we travelled with police officers in our microbus yesterday and half of us without masks.
Mar 21, 2022, 7:41 pm
#9461
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All these factors (rural, poverty, tropical-humid, more outdoors environment) suggest that the results are likely suppressed, meaning the effect sizes of mask wearing will be likely larger in an urbanized colder weather setting like the UK.
Mar 21, 2022, 8:19 pm
#9462
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that is a lot of assumption there to try and fit your theory - it almost sounds like you are starting with your conclusion and working backwards from it.
Mar 22, 2022, 8:08 am
#9463
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For many of these people, no research will ever be good enough to convince them. They will always bring up "my friend's grandfather was a smoker and lived to be 100."
Last edited by nk15; Mar 22, 2022 at 8:15 am
Mar 22, 2022, 8:22 am
#9464
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This is the usual MO of people who do not like masks, vaccines and other restrictions...Same for smokers who don't believe that smoking causes cancer...They form a position based on their own convenience, and then look to build a theory (of denial) and any evidence around it...
I got my vaccinations as soon as I was able to - I have made no secret of that and said it several times on this thread.
I don't like being restricted to staying in my home unless I am going out for a short list of permissible reasons, or being restricted by law from from meeting up with friends and family. Those seem quite draconian restrictions on my freedom and livelihood, but I guess some may have enjoyed it and been perfectly happy to have the state turning leaving your home or meeting others in to a criminal matter. Obviously the question of whether those restrictions were necessary given the dangers of the virus is a different question and I can't really answer that one.
I am afraid I am not a smoker (EDIT: although to be clear I don't dispute that smoking increases your risks of developing cancer)
Last edited by KARFA; Mar 22, 2022 at 8:42 am
Mar 22, 2022, 11:19 am
#9465
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Kent, UK
Programs: M&S Elite+
Posts: 3,657
Daily data:
Cases 94,524 (109,802 last Tuesday)
Deaths 250 (200)
Patients admitted 1,879 (1,605 the 11th)
Patients in hospital 16,272 (13,667 on the 14th)
Patients in ventilation beds 299 (280 on the 14th)
Vaccinated up to and including 21 March 2022:
First dose: 52,751,751
Second dose: 49,325,037
Booster: 38,665,626
The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 20.4% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 17.1%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 119.3 today.
Cases 94,524 (109,802 last Tuesday)
Deaths 250 (200)
Patients admitted 1,879 (1,605 the 11th)
Patients in hospital 16,272 (13,667 on the 14th)
Patients in ventilation beds 299 (280 on the 14th)
Vaccinated up to and including 21 March 2022:
First dose: 52,751,751
Second dose: 49,325,037
Booster: 38,665,626
The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 20.4% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 17.1%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 119.3 today.