I think from a purely practical point of view (and I am desperately trying not to be political) it would have been better if at least the international travel rules were set on a UK wide basis. At various points the four parts of the UK have had different rules in terms of entry and I think this has caused unnecessary confusion and not resulted in any positive benefits.

Whilst there are differing levels of approval towards different leaders' handling of the last 2 years, I would be more interested in whether those different approaches have been better for outcomes - both in relation to health and balancing against the other wider societal considerations.

Local restrictions were tried throughout 2020 when areas of high infection occurred, so it is hard to suggest we should have always had uniform domestic restrictions within the UK. However, I do think the various points when some parts of the UK have made it a offence to cross from one part to another were unnecessary and have been corrosive to the unity of the UK.

It would have been better, have inspired more trust, been more effective if the four nations had presented a united front. It's impossible not to invoke political ends and ambitions, and i reckon it will be near impossible to ascribe relative levels of success to the approaches adopted - there are simply too many variables involved in modelling of the progress of the disease.

That's not to say statistics and anecdotal tales will be clipped off to demonstrate success of one or more approach....

Daily data:

Cases 54,218 (68,214 last Tuesday)
Deaths 199 (276)
Patients admitted 1,096 (1,206 on the 5th)
Patients in hospital 12,092 (13,698 on the 8th)
Patients in ventilation beds 354 (430 on the 8th)
Vaccinated up to and including 15 February 2022:
First dose: 52,531,292
Second dose: 48,796,561
Booster: 37,876,087

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 26.8% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 28.8%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 155.1 today.

When, for quite a few months, we were legally forbidden from driving beyond our council borders in Scotland, surely then it's also fair enough to stop intra-uk travel to and from here? In such a scenario, it's fair enough. And if a regional covid approach is being used, it's again fair enough to say England has rates far too high compared to Scotland so it, like other countries, ends up in the naughty list.

And of course keep in mind that for certain govts within the UK, promoting less cohesion within the UK is actually a priority rather than anything negative.

If we accept it is perfectly legitimate for Ireland and Norway to have their own approach, and for different states in Germany and the US to do the same, why not within the UK? Is the policy for London the right one for the Western isles too? At the end of the day, we have a system with highly devolved governments and people focus on their own rules. Scottish policy on travel has certainly frustrated me at many points compared to the more liberal English ones, but I don't see why the four nations doing the same thing would have been naturally better or resulted in more trust than say, saying Ireland and the UK should do the same. Given England's size, this would naturally mean England deciding for everyone. At the end of the day, I very much so doubt your average Joe from Edinburgh has any knowledge or interest in the rules south of the border beyond a grumble if pubs opened a week or two sooner, and I would also imagine the average Joe in Bournemouth also doesn't particularly care that we still have to wear masks everywhere here.

A quick update on today's figures, focusing on England. A number of places have now gone below 400 case per 100k per 7 days in the last few days. The larger cities involved are Manchester, Birmingham, Doncaster, Wakefield, Bradford, and Leicester - Leicester like Oldham and Blackburn also had very high infection rates earlier in the pandemic. So again I think immunity levels are showing up now. Some lower tier local authorities in the South East have gone blue too, notably Epping Forest and Castle Point. Tomorrow at least 4 London boroughs will go below 400 and these are considered upper tier authorities. Only one of the traditional Shire counties has gone blue so far, that's Lancashire, Cumbria and Leicestershire probably the next in a few days. The England rate is officially 594, my unofficial calculation to take account of today's figures is 479. A week ago the official rate was 873.

However there are a few signs in the UK wide figures that the speed of reduction is relenting a bit. It's still a decline, but not as fast as before. I think that's because that some places in Southern England and Scotland are not declining as fast as the north of England, and now these southern counties have more weight in the figures. But it's still a general reduction more or less everywhere, apart from a few places in Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland is now showing an increased pace of reductions even though it's a bit spotty.

Daily data:

Cases 51,899 (66,638 last Thursday)
Deaths 183 (206)
Patients admitted 1,137 (1,323 on the 6th)
Patients in hospital 11,721 (13,257 on the 9th)
Patients in ventilation beds 359 (432 on the 9th)
Vaccinated up to and including 16 February 2022:
First dose: 52,542,206
Second dose: 48,818,475
Booster: 37,911,067

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 26.6% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 25.6%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 151.9 today. The 7 day average for patients in mechanical ventilation beds is now 390.9. The last time there were fewer patients there was the 9th July. The rolling average for cases has also fallen below 50,000 today (48592). This was around the level we were at before omicron, so it will be interesting to see if numbers continue to fall and leave us in a better place than we were before.

I agree leisure activities are mostly back to normal, but work is one big exception that I think will take longer and never go back to the same pre-covid levels.

Google Mobility Data compares current behaviour to the baseline of Jan 3rd to Feb 6th 2020:

For UK: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi...port_en-GB.pdf
- retail, recreation and shopping are mostly recovered.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...e4e332bcb0.png

But people going to workspaces is down 30% UK wide and 40% in London.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...2449f45533.png
It is one of the things that I doubt will ever get back to pre-covid levels. Unfortunately the other thing is business travel.

There is a bit of a positive clue in Wales, who are currently on an official rate of 309 per 100k, and still falling quite fast, 27% per week, they should go below 300 tomorrow. So their current figure is probably 250 approx per 100k. Wales peaked on Omicron about a week before England, and they didn't have the BA.2 step that England got, so they are probably 2 or 3 weeks ahead of England. Their current official rate is now about the same as mid August, so they are now below the autumn figures, when Delta rumbled on from mid July onwards.

agreed because many large companies are bringing in more long term flexible arrangements. my company will have a 3 day-ish "in office" week but it will vary which three days by team and individual discretion...then others like me who have taken on a permanent work from home approach and will go to the office when i feel like it. this is all to say i agree that daily commutes will never be back to the same levels again for a very very long time.

!
 

Possibly going a bit too Omni PR here, but here's my thinking. This is exactly what I want. To be able to go into the office when I need or want to go into the office. To have the option to work in the sun, in our coldest months*. In fact, it is where my employer seems to be heading. So downsising office space and finding something smaller and more city centre. However, there is a but. The but in question is the money behind all the existing office space and how that will be bought to bear to influence the government. It's a lot of money** representing quite extreme wealth. Expect coercion (using taxation as a lever)!

* Though I note the cost of self-catering apartmentos in the Canaries has gone through the roof!
** And I've written elsewhere that a sufficient concentration of money might as well have a mind of its own given the way it affects behaviour.

My 90+ aunt who lives in Italy and has dementia caught Covid. Everybody in the home where she is caught it. She's triple jabbed and it seems that the symptoms are very light at the moment. Apparently just a sore throat. I don't think she's been prescribed anything, which worries a bit, as I imagine here in the UK they would probably start administering some medication from the onset. Fingers crossed, as she's had breathing difficulties in the past, albeit without any serious respiratory diagnose, AFAIK.

Partial easing of restrictions in Wales, the relevant statutory instrument expired at midnight and wasn't renewed.
- end of mandatory Covid pass for sporting events and other public events such as cinema and nightclubs
- masks no longer required at entertainment facilities, again such as in cinemas
- masks still required in clinical settings, shops and public transport
- operators of hospitality events can require Covid passes if they wish, as a condition of entry, but it would only have a contract or civil law backing.
Covid passes in Wales relates to vaccination or a recent negative test.
Next review expected early March.

Daily data:

Cases 47,685 (58,899 last Friday)
Deaths 158 (193)
Patients admitted 1,280 (1,402 on the 7th)
Patients in hospital 11,555 (12,853 on the 10th)
Patients in ventilation beds 331 (430 on the 10th)
Vaccinated up to and including 17 February 2022:
First dose: 52,551,460
Second dose: 48,839,853
Booster: 37,945,645

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 25.0% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 24.9%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 146.9 today.

I will keep my fingers crossed for a good outcome for her and the others in the home. While every situation and individual is different, a friend’s mother was in a similar situation in early January in the U.K., and it was very mild and didn’t cause any issues to the best of my knowledge. I don’t know whether they were offered any medications, but my friend didn’t mention it so I suspect not.