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fransknorge Jul 11, 2021 11:03 am

The Guardian is running two op-ed from two NHS frontline staff, describing from the inside reactions and the morale of the NHS staff to the latest news. The crux is that the NHS is on the verge of being on its knee with record A&E, backlog and staff that has record mental health issues and more is being put on their shoulder before Winter. This will lead to increased mortality as staff errors will increase, increase staff absence and the situation in Winter being even more dire it usually was in the past. This could be mitigated with measures to control transmissions in the next months.


A few patients we are caring for still deny Covid exists, even as we strap oxygen masks to their faces. That is perplexing. Staff find that particularly hard and I think it will be an interesting and difficult part of this next phase. I wonder if we’ll be caring for a select group of patients who think the very disorder we’re treating them for is a sham. How do staff, who are so exhausted, navigate that?

In between previous waves the hospital returned Covid wards to normal wards and increased our elective operating programme. Sadly, we are seeing those wards being turned back into Covid wards again. Although we’ve not yet reduced our elective operations, I cannot see how we’ll cope as Covid admissions increase.

We’re back to planning an increase in critical care capacity and anticipate this will be required to manage the influx of Covid patients. We’re much more adept at pivoting back to Covid measures, having lived through this before. But a number of things are hampering us this time round. We have unprecedented numbers of A&E attendances, with waits in excess of 10 hours. So overall demand has increased massively. The hospital is full, similar to entering a bad winter, so turning wards into Covid wards isn’t easy. There just aren’t enough beds.



Unlocking? NHS staff are humans too and we desperately want society to get back to normal. But it seems almost unfathomable that as Covid infections are rising that the last few lines of defence are being torn away. The most bizarre decision is the mask mandate. It seems almost wholly political. And it’s clear already that mask-wearing is going to become a political statement. That’s totally unnecessary. Masks can protect those around you. They don’t prevent businesses from opening, nor do they hamper the economy. So why ditch the mask mandate? I can’t think of a single good explanation.

One key aspect of the current policy has not been discussed at all. The vaccine appears to have broken the link between infections and deaths, which is fantastic. But there are 5.3 million people with non-Covid related diseases waiting for treatment. If Covid infections are left to run rampant, with no policy measures to slow them down, how on earth is the NHS going to address the backlog?

As infections rise, so too will admissions. As the hospital beds fill up with Covid patients, we will have to stop other work. There seems to be no planning for this whatsoever. It’s all very well for Sajid Javid to say we need to learn to live with the virus and we need to think about other diseases. But until the government understands that a virus running rampant and filling hospital beds means that other works can’t go on, we’ve got a real problem.



The question of whether the workforce will be able to cope is entirely academic. Demand is already unmanageable, staff are already sounding the alarm in droves and patient safety is already being compromised in hospitals up and down the country.

Take the hospitals where I work. We have run out of beds multiple times this year, not only during the last Covid surge in January but many times since, when pressures were supposedly abating. Our recent waiting times in A&E have routinely topped six, seven or even eight hours. We have found ourselves back in the dark old days of gravely unwell patients lining trolleys in corridors, with all the misery and indignity that entails. And we are no outlier. Last month, the vice-president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, Dr Adrian Boyle, warned of the risks of overwhelmed A&E departments leading to avoidable deaths: “What’s been going on for the last six weeks, the levels of activity we are seeing, is creating a significant and sustained threat to patient safety … We know research evidence has consistently demonstrated that excessive occupancy in emergency departments is inevitably associated with an increase in short-term mortality.”

Javid only needs to glance at social media to see the torrent of ever more frantic posts from NHS staff at the end of their tether. One A&E doctor in a district general hospital tweeted that their department’s highest ever recorded number of attendances in 24 hours has been broken by 10.4%. Another doctor told me: “I work in a hospital with an A&E capacity of 180 patients. Yesterday at 9am there were 300 patients down there … Don’t anyone try to tell me numbers are manageable, it’s total crap.”

An NHS consultant friend in London, who is too worried of repercussions for me to share her name, sounded wretched when I called her: “It feels inhumane. Our emergency department is spilling over. Patients are scared, unsure of where else to go, worried that their diagnosis has been missed. But staff have suffered the psychological impact of the pandemic too … It feels like we’ve been set up to fail.”

Nearly half of NHS critical care staff, for instance, have reported symptoms of PTSD, depression or anxiety, with one in five ICU nurses expressing thoughts of suicide or self-harm. As the entire workforce grapples with the pandemic backlog – more than 5 million patients now languish on waiting lists – morale has never been lower.



Distressingly, frontline staff know exactly what is coming because we are already inhabiting its foothills. This week, some hospitals were opening up additional overspill Covid wards as new patients overwhelmed the existing ones. Other hospitals are being forced to cancel vital operations, including cancer surgery, because there are no ICU beds in which to care for the patients post-operatively. If, as the health secretary said over the weekend, dealing with the backlog is one of his top priorities, he would not be removing social distancing restrictions.

Can you imagine what it feels like, Sajid Javid, to hold someone’s gaze as you break the unforgivable news, on the very morning they expect to be anaesthetised, that you have been forced to cancel their life-or-death surgery? No, of course you can’t
https://www.theguardian.com/society/...nger-this-time
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...tients-backlog

flyertalker0013223 Jul 11, 2021 11:45 am


Originally Posted by fransknorge (Post 33398423)
The Guardian is running two op-ed from two NHS frontline staff, describing from the inside reactions and the morale of the NHS staff to the latest news. The crux is that the NHS is on the verge of being on its knee with record A&E, backlog and staff that has record mental health issues and more is being put on their shoulder before Winter. This will lead to increased mortality as staff errors will increase, increase staff absence and the situation in Winter being even more dire it usually was in the past. This could be mitigated with measures to control transmissions in the next months.



https://www.theguardian.com/society/...nger-this-time
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...tients-backlog

Then what are you going to do? Roll back to Step 1 or 2? I see a lot of complaining but no real solution to "Cases are surging!" Almost 9/10 eligible people have taken up their vaccination offer, and soon will have completed their vaccination cycle. Once this is done, there's not much to do, given that most people have stopped caring about pandemic restrictions already. With or without a delay to Step 4, the NHS is screwed. Sorry for the bluntness.

fransknorge Jul 11, 2021 11:55 am


Originally Posted by tosaerba24 (Post 33398491)
Then what are you going to do? Roll back to Step 1 or 2? I see a lot of complaining but no real solution to "Cases are surging!" Almost 9/10 eligible people have taken up their vaccination offer, and soon will have completed their vaccination cycle. Once this is done, there's not much to do, given that most people have stopped caring about pandemic restrictions already. With or without a delay to Step 4, the NHS is screwed. Sorry for the bluntness.

I already posted upthreads a list of measures that would be able to cut transmissions greatly while maintaining a near normal life:


Originally Posted by fransknorge (Post 33390048)
The alternative is to continue with some hygiene rules and restrictions that *everybody* should follow, here are some pointers:
1. Manage schools with C02 measurements, aeration, masks
2. Manage every public space the same way, with C02 measurements and clear rules about what do to do depending on the results (aerate, decrease the amount of people, close). Make the measurement results visible by the public. Install HEPA filters and air recycling/filtering when window opening is not possible (public transports !!). Keep mask mandates in all public closed space
3. Test and trace efficiently with backward tracking to break clusters
4. Isolate positive test
5. Vaccinate.
6. Educate.

I would add to this list a possible vaccine passport to gain entry to large events, a better control and management at borders.

PxC Jul 11, 2021 12:01 pm

Whilst I appreciate July 19 is a new challenge, the increase in daily case numbers continues to drop and the daily cases themselves may well start to drop soon. So maybe not so bad after all.

With immunity increasing by the day for the foreseeable, we might be one of the few countries that can get away with opening up.

Europe on the other hand

Malta +841% in a week!
Netherlands +510%
Greece 157%
Austria 68%
Spain 64%
US +23%

I know some people in Mallorca.. now positive for Covid, and that’s not uncommon amongst travelling brits right now by all accounts.

corporate-wage-slave Jul 11, 2021 12:08 pm


Originally Posted by DaveS (Post 33398203)
The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 27.3% on the previous week

So that 27.3% is the figure that is declining, indicating that while cases are mounting, the doubling time is stretching out in time. The 7 day over 14 day percentage is 56.00% and has been declining for 10 continuous days and 14 days if we include the bumpy plateau before that. I've been wrong about this before, but on current trends we are about a week before we may see a decline in cases. Scotland and the North West are both seeing cases number reducing, but they are continuing to rise sharply in the North East. However even in the North East we have gone from 100% increase per week to 60% increase per week, over the last week or so.

Silver Fox Jul 11, 2021 12:40 pm


Originally Posted by PxC (Post 33398524)
Whilst I appreciate July 19 is a new challenge, the increase in daily case numbers continues to drop and the daily cases themselves may well start to drop soon. So maybe not so bad after all.

With immunity increasing by the day for the foreseeable, we might be one of the few countries that can get away with opening up.

Europe on the other hand

Malta +841% in a week!
Netherlands +510%
Greece 157%
Austria 68%
Spain 64%
US +23%

I know some people in Mallorca.. now positive for Covid, and that’s not uncommon amongst travelling brits right now by all accounts.

As usual, head down, just keep going, we have done all that has been asked of us and more. It's as over as it can possibly get. Zero covid was/is not an option for us so people have to live with it.

DaveS Jul 11, 2021 12:50 pm


Originally Posted by PxC (Post 33398524)
Whilst I appreciate July 19 is a new challenge, the increase in daily case numbers continues to drop and the daily cases themselves may well start to drop soon. So maybe not so bad after all.

With immunity increasing by the day for the foreseeable, we might be one of the few countries that can get away with opening up.

Europe on the other hand

Malta +841% in a week!
Netherlands +510%
Greece 157%
Austria 68%
Spain 64%
US +23%

I know some people in Mallorca.. now positive for Covid, and that’s not uncommon amongst travelling brits right now by all accounts.

You could add Cyprus to that list too. Delta is hitting hard once it takes off. However, if it follows the same pattern as in India and in other variants, the fall in cases after the peak will be just as spectacular. Let's hope for that anyway. And that there is no knee jerk reaction from HMG in the next traffic light review.

Silver Fox Jul 11, 2021 1:13 pm


Originally Posted by fransknorge (Post 33398423)
The Guardian is running two op-ed from two NHS frontline staff, describing from the inside reactions and the morale of the NHS staff to the latest news. The crux is that the NHS is on the verge of being on its knee with record A&E, backlog and staff that has record mental health issues and more is being put on their shoulder before Winter. This will lead to increased mortality as staff errors will increase, increase staff absence and the situation in Winter being even more dire it usually was in the past. This could be mitigated with measures to control transmissions in the next months.



https://www.theguardian.com/society/...nger-this-time
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...tients-backlog

Two people out of 1.3M in the NHS. Really?

USA_flyer Jul 11, 2021 2:54 pm


Originally Posted by Silver Fox (Post 33398632)
As usual, head down, just keep going, we have done all that has been asked of us and more. It's as over as it can possibly get. Zero covid was/is not an option for us so people have to live with it.

I've said that in other threads and got shouted down for it.

Silver Fox Jul 11, 2021 3:00 pm


Originally Posted by USA_flyer (Post 33398930)
I've said that in other threads and got shouted down for it.

Yeah, seen it, felt it, got the t-shirt too.

VSLover Jul 11, 2021 4:43 pm

oh god, i didnt even think what the govt would do as delta rises in other countries.

watch, end of aug when we pass our peak and it is happening across europe, HMG puts all of europe on the red list lol.

and pretty sure test and trace is going to be broken after tonight!

Internaut Jul 12, 2021 3:00 am


Originally Posted by VSLover (Post 33399145)
oh god, i didnt even think what the govt would do as delta rises in other countries.

watch, end of aug when we pass our peak and it is happening across europe, HMG puts all of europe on the red list lol.

and pretty sure test and trace is going to be broken after tonight!

Given the government is going hell for leather on herd immunity, over summer, and also that Delta seems to have passed its peak in the UK, I'm guessing HMG will do nothing. Countries that don't have Delta might put us on their own red lists but that would only be holding back the inevitable. One way or another it is going to get in and, in developed countries, responses will be shaped accordingly.

KSVVZ2015 Jul 12, 2021 3:50 am

Our nanny (who admittedly delayed her first dose due to hesitancy) is racing to get her second dose to facilitate travel in August. Seems like its becoming harder to speed it up - any advice on places in London that are still giving it post-3/4 weeks?

8420PR Jul 12, 2021 5:24 am

Is there a shortage of vaccines or a shortage of arms? The doses per day has been decreasing since the beginning of June.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...9e95241ea1.png

alex67500 Jul 12, 2021 5:31 am


Originally Posted by KSVVZ2015 (Post 33400156)
Our nanny (who admittedly delayed her first dose due to hesitancy) is racing to get her second dose to facilitate travel in August. Seems like its becoming harder to speed it up - any advice on places in London that are still giving it post-3/4 weeks?

There's a good subreddit to follow, there's a daily thread covering the UK, usually pinned at the top of https://www.reddit.com/r/GetJabbed/


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