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Originally Posted by S_W_S
(Post 33309595)
You make the point far more succinctly than I ever could. Had I not been in group 6 I would still be waiting for my invite, as many are around me. Most young people have given up so much this past year to protect the old and the vulnerable, that it would almost feel like they're being thrown under the bus if allowances were made for the vaccinated already.
I have no issues with allowances being made once everyone over 18 has been offered a first dose, but until then it is unfair on those still waiting. |
Originally Posted by cardsqc
(Post 33312482)
I'm also kinda skeptical that it makes a lot of sense to be doing widespread testing of people that have no symptoms at all. (Note, when I say that, I'm not including testing for travel, I'm willing to acknowledge that there's at least some more basis for doing that.). Even for those that are having symptoms, I'm not necessarily convinced that being tested really makes a huge amount of sense if they're the minor symptoms that many get that never develop into anything else.
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About 5% of people who catch covid at the moment end up in hospital, so exponential case growth can, eventually, overwhelm hospitals too. Faster vaccinations could help lower that percentage but we don't seem to be quick enough. I fear in Scotland we may be going up, rather than down, levels in the near future. :(
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Is the 5% hospitalization number current, or historical? Isn’t one of the big hopes that hospitalizations will decline substantially now that most high-risk people are fully vaccinated? I guess we’ll know in about a week.
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Originally Posted by Dan1113
(Post 33313221)
About 5% of people who catch covid at the moment end up in hospital, so exponential case growth can, eventually, overwhelm hospitals too. Faster vaccinations could help lower that percentage but we don't seem to be quick enough. I fear in Scotland we may be going up, rather than down, levels in the near future. :(
Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
(Post 33310768)
OK, so Matt Hancock to the rescue, taking his figures given to the House of Commons today.
For the Delta Variant up to and including June 3, there have been 12,383 confirmed Delta cases total, mostly in the last month. Of these 464 went to A&E and 126 people were admitted to hospital. Of these 126 hospital admissions over the last month, 83 were unvaccinated, 28 had received one dose, and just three had received both doses of vaccine. One had received their second dose quite recently. Now about half the adults in the country have had 2 vaccines, so if we were now on 95% coverage we would have had say 5 cases instead of 126 cases in hospital admissions. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...c03e7b5c30.jpg Unless I made errors you see a nice downward slope; the ratio in the last week is 3.7%; that's almost a third of what it used to be in winter, proof I think of the efficacy of vaccines. And the more we get fully vaccinated the better it's going to be methinks. |
Which is fantastic, however it takes several weeks (/months for the second dose) to get that vaccine effect and even as of today huge percentages are without vaccines or only recently had them, which isn't good when the current case growth is exponential, and the growth of the growth is also exponential.
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Originally Posted by Dan1113
(Post 33314250)
Which is fantastic, however it takes several weeks (/months for the second dose) to get that vaccine effect and even as of today huge percentages are without vaccines or only recently had them, which isn't good when the current case growth is exponential, and the growth of the growth is also exponential.
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Originally Posted by JEM_NYC
(Post 33313667)
Is the 5% hospitalization number current, or historical? Isn’t one of the big hopes that hospitalizations will decline substantially now that most high-risk people are fully vaccinated? I guess we’ll know in about a week.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3YgGJOX...name=4096x4096 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3YgVbSW...jpg&name=large Again, that increase among younger adults is tracing a ~straight path on a log scale, indicative of exponential growth. Further vaccines can flatten that curve, but as @BristOliver has pointed out, the additional cases over recent days and weeks already guarantee more admissions.And as@_nickdaviesexplains in our story, the problem here is that even though the most vulnerable are now protected, there are still more than enough un(der)protected people to fuel exponential growth in hospital cases for a long time yet, which could send numbers much higher.The big question is what this could mean for deaths. So far, there has *not* been a sustained rise in mortality, including in the North West where the deaths series remains bumpy (due to very low numbers) and lower than it was a couple of months ago. There is good reason to believe a wave of younger cases and admissions will be a less lethal wave than those that came before vaccines, as I discussed here used age-specific-fatality rates. Nonetheless, more cases and more admissions will mean more deaths.Away from the North West, all of these patterns are also apparent on the national scale if we look at England as a whole. Admissions and patient numbers have begun arcing upwards, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t follow the North West’s trajectory. Conclusions: • Third wave of hospital admissions clearly underway • Further reopening on June 21 would accelerate already exponential growth • Data still suggest this wave should be less lethal • Vaccines work very well, including against Delta. They remain our way out |
Originally Posted by fransknorge
(Post 33314361)
No need to wait a week: hospital admissions are rising exponentially in North West England, specially for the most unvaccinated age group:
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...8eb70b4522.jpg I'm not saying we're out of the woods yet; personally, I'm against reopening nightclubs and festivals or having everyone crammed in the Tube to the offices (which is what June 21st is all about, and I'm sure that Boris' property tycoon chums are giving him an earful about the need of having people back in the city centres). But I'm just fed up of alarmism, screamy headers and fearmongering. |
Originally Posted by 13901
(Post 33314366)
I can take any chart and tweak it to make it as scary as hell. The reality is this: admissions per day for the whole of the UK:
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...8eb70b4522.jpg I'm not saying we're out of the woods yet; personally, I'm against reopening nightclubs and festivals or having everyone crammed in the Tube to the offices (which is what June 21st is all about, and I'm sure that Boris' property tycoon chums are giving him an earful about the need of having people back in the city centres). But I'm just fed up of alarmism, screamy headers and fearmongering. |
Originally Posted by 13901
(Post 33314366)
I can take any chart and tweak it to make it as scary as hell. The reality is this: admissions per day for the whole of the UK:
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...8eb70b4522.jpg I'm not saying we're out of the woods yet; personally, I'm against reopening nightclubs and festivals or having everyone crammed in the Tube to the offices (which is what June 21st is all about, and I'm sure that Boris' property tycoon chums are giving him an earful about the need of having people back in the city centres). But I'm just fed up of alarmism, screamy headers and fearmongering. He specifically addressed the chart you made: There is no UK-wide figure for hospital admissions for June 6, as Scotland has not reported since June 2, so of course a series to June 6 will show a fall — the number of reporting entities has dropped.This is especially significant since admissions are rising faster in Scotland than anywhere else in the UK. So yes, I did mean to say hospital admissions are rising in the UK, because they are.Always best to refer to original sources when getting into these debates. I look at the original source data multiple times every day. |
Originally Posted by fransknorge
(Post 33314436)
Go read the piece and the side comments on John Burn Murdoch Twitter thread. He is not alarmist at all, just pointing out the actual data and analysing them.
He specifically addressed the chart you made: My main point is that this isn't January. Or February. Or March. We shouln't be careless and surely HMG shouldn't repeat the error they did on India. But I really loathe the climate on the news and the public debate over here in the UK, there's this lingering sense of panic and scaremongering that yields nothing good. |
And there was nothing in the post I made to say this is January or February or March. The piece is balanced and factual.
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Originally Posted by PxC
(Post 33312795)
Would this mean it’s not causing medical problems and thus is a good thing?
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Originally Posted by 13901
(Post 33314249)
While we're on the topic, I've taken the gov.uk data for cases & admissions for this year, and compared then with each other on a weekly basis. It's a bit artificial as I think that a case on Monday =/= a hospitalisation on the same day, at least not necessarily, but I think it paints a picture. The hospitalisation data runs up until the end of May. Here is the view: Of course the big caveat is that "cases" is a function of the scale of infection and the rate of testing; while testing has no impact on hospital admissions. Given the frantic increase in testing, that asymmetry is likely to drive down your ratio. |
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