Worcester

Note - This is not meant to discuss the pro/cons of Brexit nor to discuss hypothetical situations. I think it would be useful to have a thread which passed on facts as they come out.

Useful analysis here

Raffles

MSPeconomist

Worcester

Yes the Y2K was a huge problem, which was resolved before it became a problem by thousands of people working to fix it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45083650

There is legitimate concern that there are going to be consequences.

IAN-UK

But I fear this is exactly what you are inviting

The form of our exit, even the timing of our (final) exit is not defined. The extent to which existing cooperative arrangements with European institutions will continue seems only now to be surfacing publicly as an issue - although it is something that has caused alarm in some quarters since day one.

The responses to current concerns vary between a rekindling of project fear and the "they" have got more to lose than we have approach to muddling through.

lhrsfo

All actions have consequences, so that's no surprise. In this case, it also seems that no actions (ie HMG's lack of action in preparations) could also have consequences!

That aside, as I understand it, there are two distinct areas where work needs to be done to ensure smooth flow. First, regulatory - currently airlines and aircraft are certified as safe to fly by a Europe-wide regulatory body. Assuming that the UK is kicked out of this body on B-Day (so to speak), then the CAA will have to take on its role with immediate effect.

Second, airlines need permission to fly between countries, and this also is currently handled by the EU (I'm not sure if it is in all cases, or just intra-EU and where the EU has specific treaties eg with the USA). Leaving the EU, the UK will need to renegotiate these rights to fly, as will all other countries whose airlines wish to fly to the UK.

The question then remains as to whether either, or both, of these areas will present problems in practice, and then we stray into the political field. IMHO, it should not be impossible to achieve the necessary work in the time remaining if there's a will to do so, but it takes all parties to play ball, and that's a big ask for the EU and could well be a big ask for some third party countries who wish to extract concessions (eg the Republic of Freedonia might demand LHR slots plus a larger embassy in London if BA, the only airline that flies there, were to be permitted to continue to do so - and then it would be up to HMG to determine whether, yet again, they will give in to blackmail).

NickB

The latter. Even where there are still bilaterals between an individual Member State and a third country, it will have been amended to allow for all EU airlines to benefit from the agreement rather than the individual state's own airlines. Therefore, even those bilaterals will need to be modified.

WorldLux

Landing rights have been negotiated in various ways. You can differentiate between landing rights within the EU, landing rights that are negotiated by the EU on behalf of all of its member states, and, lastly, bilateral agreements between individual member states and third countries.

There are however other areas, where there's presumably going to be issues, notably wrt customs, traveling with pets, visa policy, ETIAS requirements, air passenger rights, etc. Organising the post-Brexit relations and internal rules will be a monumental task.

All will depend on what kind of relationship the UK and the EU can agree on, which is why I don't think that this thread is currently warranted. We simply don't know what day 1 of Brexit will look like or if there's even going to be a B-day.

Worcester

I really did not want to create a thread for speculation, but more for facts. I have to book travel for trade events for next spring and I am concerned that there will be problems come March and April. As with a number of questions I have about Duty on imports post-Brexit attempts to actually ask government departments leads nowhere.

NWIFlyer

On that score, it’s pretty factual that you won’t have any issues due to the already agreed transition period. That isn’t going to change.

Duty on Imports, and associated exports, is extremely complicated and may well involve far more export licences than the UK requires now. There are many multi-day seminars, run by lawyers, that explore all the possible scenarios and the actions required for each of them.

Anything we say here about life after the transition period will be highly speculative and that’s not what you’re looking for, it seems.

dddc

And you were hoping the wise and wonderful people on here know the answer?

The answer is nobody knows if/when/until it happens. Speculation on any point is just idle time wasting. I would book and ensure you get a policy for "Brexit Failure" or what ever term will cover what ever disasters that start to unfold.

tinkicker

Right now there is no transition period. It's conditional on there being a final agreement which, according to the UK Govt, is looking unlikely.

Unless something else happens life as we know it in the UK (and to some extent) the EU stops on 29 March 2019. Thus the stockpile food and essential medicine advice (assuming your medicine isn't perishable). Personally, if you have dependents in the UK and they can't cope for extended periods without you I wouldn't plan to be out of the UK on March 29th 2019 unless and until the final deal and transition etc are signed off (or the whole thing abandoned as a stupid idea).

WorldLux

I'm not certain that that is the case. Mrs. May has repeatedly said that nothing's agreed until everything's agreed. Unfortunately, there has been little to no progress in the past couple of months. You could even argue that we have backtracked on a number of points. The lack of detail is quite simply frustrating, but I don't expect this to change before October. We may even need to wait until early January to get some degree of certitude on what Brexit will look like.

Silver Fox

Fixed that. And I give you:

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