Mwenenzi

If you want see how bad USA is doing with COVID-19 compared to the rest of the world (deaths per million of population) look here---> https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/t...hs-per-million
UK 255 deaths per million
USA 136 deaths per million
Canada 48.6 deaths per million
Australia 2.9 deaths million
Seen several reports that deaths in USA are under reported.
Does the OP want to be part of that?

GrayAnderson

I'm sitting in the middle here: I don't think OP is utterly nuts for wanting to do a trip. I think the timing is still a little bit lousy for it (I'd probably shoot for June, personally).

As to the exposure risks, I'd suggest that you need to consider both sets of risks: That you have the virus but are asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic, and that you might pick up the virus on the trip. The former involves a very frank inventory of your contacts over the last few weeks prior to the trip date (and I don't mean "Eh, nobody I know picked it up"...really go through and analyze how much you have been out and about, possible contact points for picking it up, and so on). The latter involves your plans on the trip, whether you can arrange hotel rooms with an extra "stay buffer", and so on. Basically, you're not only analyzing your own risk tolerance but what sort of a risk you might present to others.

To go to a farcical extreme, if you've literally been living in a cabin in the woods for the last few weeks with no human contact whatsoever your risk of carrying the virus with you "on the way out" would be damned near zero. On the other hand, if you're an "essential worker" with a customer-facing position and a lot of customer traffic, do not pass go, do not collect 200 SkyPesos. And there's everything in the middle (e.g. you've been working from home and in a state of quasi-isolation).

As a personal example: At the end of March I went to Florida. I too Amtrak, sequestered myself in my roomette (except for breakfast on the way into Florida), and effectively only had contact with a specific group I was meeting with down in FL. I had incidental contacts with a Lyft driver between Amtrak and the airport/a taxi driver on the return and the car rental agent (though I maintained distance except for the exchange of keys in the latter case). Everyone else in the group I met with had done the same. Prior to the trip my contacts had been extremely limited in the previous two weeks (I did have dinner out twice in the preceding two weeks, but those dinners were right at the start of the two-weeks-pre-trip period). Other than that, my only contacts had been at the window of various fast food places/well-distanced trips to a 7-11 and otherwise within an established isolation unit. Upon returning home I did not visit the third member of my isolation unit for two weeks (since while I was away, he figured out that he was in a high risk population...we had a "chat" about the timing of this since he was part of the discussion where I chose to take the trip and I confess that I wasn't amused when he tried to deflect with "I'm not your mother" when I was wrangling with how to make the trip while we were eating dinner the night before I left). The three of us (and the folks in FL) judged that this plan presented an exceedingly limited risk of transmission "either way" (me to others on the trip, me to people back home upon return), though the third member effectively had a change of circumstances (prior to this, part of the analysis was no close physical exposure to anyone in a high-risk group on anything resembling a sustained basis). I took the train instead of flying (despite walk-up fares being about $20 each way RIC-MCO on B6 at the time) as a risk mitigation measure (the load factors on several flights I looked at were too high for my comfort...a flight with only 10 pax on it is something I would have considered, but there was substantial crowding on at least one leg of most itineraries; by contrast, I basically had a car to myself on the train).

Similarly, I went through great pains to arrange a massage this month. Again, we had a detailed analysis of the risks involved (it was a one-day trip, no overnights/hotels involved, the therapist wasn't seeing clients otherwise and hadn't been for some time so he presented at most a negligible carrier risk, and even my high-risk friend not only agreed that the myofascial work was a reasonable medical item [particularly considering how sedentary I've been in the last few weeks] but would have arranged for a massage of his own if the therapist had come to me instead of me going to him [the relevant travel fee would have been excessive]. On my end, I'd been "back in the bubble" for just under three weeks, so my risks for transmitting out were damned near zero. But, again, we all basically had about a five-way conversation in which we detailed our gameplan and possible exposure risks so that the high-risk member of my "party" had his eyes open, and he held/holds something very close to an absolute veto.

So, ask yourself questions like I did above if you really want to take a trip. Consider where you'd be going, consider your hotel/food situation, and so on. But I would argue that the questions you need to ask aren't a 30-second "Is this a good idea?" thought exercise but something that requires a serious discussion with, bluntly, various stakeholders in your life (mainly folks you're in close contact with but also your job).

The bottom line, however, is that it is entirely possible to carry out an analysis like this and come back with "Yes, the risks are acceptable". A large part of the reason that the shutdown/stay-at-home orders are in place has to do with people simply not carrying out anything resembling this analysis. This also has to do with why I think Sweden is handling things differently (there's greater compliance with "strong recommendations" there).

As to OP's trip, if he's dead set on it, I would advise reversing it and driving DC-Seattle and planning to be relatively isolated for two weeks upon return (I realize there are likely practical limits to this). Taking the presumption that the "airport experience" represents the largest risk to the whole enterprise, I'd say that moving that to the end (where you're not going to accidentally play Typhoid Mary on your way home) would help with that concern.

I'd also advise planning the trip and taking into account the various circumstances along the road (e.g. hotels, food options, and so on). There are some routes through parts of the West where OP might have the option to actually sit down at a restaurant for a meal, and what OP would want to do as far as that goes should be considered in advance.

So do I think OP is nuts? I do not. But I do not necessarily think that OP has weighed the tangle of factors at play here, either.

[As an aside, there's no way I'm going to be able to stick with staying at home 12-24 months. I'm politely putting an outer edge on this at sometime in June or July [VA's orders presently expire at the start of June], since in some respects my sanity is starting to fray just a little around the edges right now, and that's with putting a healthy side of taking my classic Cadillac out for a cruise [the local Costco wipes the pump handles between each transaction, so I think the transmission risks there are negligible]. Similarly, I very strongly doubt I'm going to be able to get my brother to "back off" of DragonCon [or whatever happens to be in Atlanta over Labor Day weekend]...but we're going to negotiate pre-con/post-con plans and protocols with with the third person in our group, and those will depend very much on the prevailing circumstances at that point.

Edit: I also think the point about "stopping in small[er] towns" is worth weighing, given the contact points. I would advise considering that when planning out where you expect to stop.

LondonElite

Yes, this is crazy. You may be an asymptomatic carrier and pass it on to others. Just stay out of contact with others for a while longer, then take a trip when it is slightly more responsible to do so. I find it really amusing that people think this is some sort of a conspiracy, or that they are tougher than the virus and will not be kept locked at home by a tiny worm they can't even see.

writerguyfl

This isn't true. Several people here have had the exact same opinion: stay home.

As someone in a high-risk group, I'll add my voice to the "stay home" group.

Zeeb

As others have already said, your personal risk tolerance isn't what matters in a situation like this. It's about the risk you push on to others who do need to travel or work in jobs that enable travel that matters.

I don't think that OP is crazy for thinking about it or messing around looking at itineraries, we're all bored and have some cabin fever. But I don't think it would be a good idea to actually follow through with it right now.

pgh234

While I feel the condescending attitude was a bit much, lets discuss some of your points.

First, the concept of flattening the curve is not meant to prevent us all from getting the 'Rona, it was meant to allow us to come down with it at a rate that our heathcare system can cope with. If we all don't accept the fact that we will all eventually get this like any normal flu, there is no alternative than to remain locked in your house for the next 18-24 months until a vaccine is developed with questionable effectiveness. (Let alone discuss the outcome of that 18-24 months on our society...a separate conversation)

The curve has not only been flattened, but it has been obliterated. Nationally, we are on par with Germany and plenty of other decent westernized nations. With the single exception of New York City, hospitals around the US are half-empty and on the verge of bankruptcy. Locally, we don't even come off of the X-axis. My county has had about 1000 cases. According to the CDC, about 10% of the confirmed cases have been ending up in the hospitals. Lets say 100 people have hit local hospital beds with the 'Rona. My county has over 6200 hospital beds with around 400 ICU beds. So therefore 100 people with the 'Rona have been using our local hospitals spread over the past 5 weeks. All local hospitals also have more then enough PPE. It is my understanding this is the case for a vast majority of the country.

Second, there is always a risk leaving your home, driving a car, flying a plane, walking across the street, going to work, etc. We accept that risk every day. It is a personal decision on your comfort level to accept that risk. If you do not accept it, by all means, stay home.

Third, yes, YOLO. Two or more years is a non-negligible percentage of my life. Yourself and/or the government should not be allowed to imprison me against my will and take away years of enjoyment, prosperity, social interactions, and experiences from our collectively limited time on this planet.

Go on that trip. Take precautions. Be safe. In the rare instance that you need it, the healthcare system has the ability to help you.

k5xs

And you base that on your experience as an epidemiologist, or what exactly?

Nearly 50,000 dead Americans might disagree.

Zeeb

That's not true at all.

LondonElite

Again, you could be an asymptomatic carrier that passes it to someone who then presents with serious symptoms, possibly death. That is not your choice to make, and indeed would be hugely selfish. You are not being imprisoned, you are being asked to stay at home and/or socially distant from others outside your household.

DTWflyer

Stay home. At least wait until the stay-at-home restrictions are lifted.

In additional to all the reasons mentioned above, it makes you look like an idiot taking an unnecessary trip as such when you will be driving through multiple states when everyone is advised to stay-home, many can't even work, people can't travel to their second homes/vacation properties, not to mention literally everything is closed or has extreme social distancing measures.

DenverBrian

You refer to people advocating extreme caution as "Corona-Karens," you're going to get that kind of response. <shrugs>

pgh234

If you read my post, you would see my county had 100 'Rona patients in our inventory of 6200 hospital beds spread over a 5 week period. What part of that curve is not flat enough to start reopening society? This is a typical trend throughout a vast majority of the US.

It is just as selfish for me to leave my home to go to work to make money for my family as it is for the hotel employee I may asymptomatically pass it on to also go to work and make money to support their family. I am glad you are in a position to not care about money.

Again, life is inherently a risk and every day is a day closer to death. 99.9% of the country has the medical capacity to help folks if they need it. Between car accidents/distracted driving, drug overdoses, eating like crap, etc...this just adds another risk to the litany of items out there trying to kill you. Weigh your risks and proceed accordingly.

BearX220

Exactly. I have been trapped in my apartment in Chicago for six weeks, and it looks like at least six more, and I would love to just go for a drive to Kenosha or something, but it ain't happening.

This crisis has divided us into a cohort that understands it lives in a community, with responsibilities thereto, and one that places personal agenda first under the banner of legally guaranteed freedom and liberty. Please choose wisely.

The reason the US is striking out here compared to countries like South Korea, Germany, Australia is the disintegration of the social compact. I have a constitutionally guaranteed right to cough in your face.

That is a dispatch from some parallel universe where the death toll isn't rising by thousands daily and where politically motivated relaxation of the rules isn't about to cause fresh eruptions and deaths.

I'm not sure why the heathcare system should allocate resources to people who actually go out and court COVID-19 as a gesture of defiance.

DenverBrian

We have already exceeded the annual death rate from car accidents nationwide. By sheer numbers, the risk of dying in a car accident in the US this year is now lower than the risk of dying from COVID.

A car accident creates a chain of 1-5 deaths in almost all cases. It does not create a risk of others dying in car accidents.

A drug overdose creates a chain of one death. It does not create a risk of others dying of drug overdoses.

Eating like crap creates a chain of one death. It does not create a risk of others dying of eating like crap.

Referring to stay-at-home as "prison" reflects a complete ignorance of what prison experiences are actually like.

SSF556

Cowering in your home is not natural and not what makes America. I am starting up my traveling the week of May 4th.

Beware of anyone that promises you tomorrow or promises you safety.

Realistically you are putting yourself at a much much higher risk driving back across the country in a car. I say hell ya go for it...we only live once.

Also a lot of people do not understand the basic ideas of freedom....freedom is very scary in its raw form. The majority of people need someone to tell them to do something, they also need continuous encouragement and for people to reassure them that they will keep them safe.