Hello,

Going over JetPlan.com's turbulence forecast map, I am trying to make up what it actually means to the flight.
According to the forecast, the first picture looks absolutely smooth all throughout Europe.
But according to the second picture, and let's say that the forecast is for an altitude of FL300-FL350, on a flight from TLV-FCO, the plane will fly through red, yellow and green. So I'm wondering:

-Does anyone know this map and can tell if that means that the flight will not avoid a moderate turbulence? And a light one?

-Is green (light turbulence) supposed to feel like some bumps only (i.e. water in a cup rippling a bit but no more), or does it feel like more than that?

-Will the pilot bother to bypass a light turbulence or only begin making efforts with a mild one?

Examples:



Thanks very much,
As you can guess this bothers me very much.
Carmel

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Cholula
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The flaw in your assumption is that the plane will follow a straight line and not avoid any bumpy areas.

First, that map is a forecast, showing where conditions are favorable for turbulence developing. It doesn't mean it *will* exist. Although I see forecasts in the US for moderate turbulence all the time, it's quite rare that I actually experience it.

Second, the second map you posted is for a huge altitude range - FL200 up to FL450. Within that range, there are likely to be altitudes that are smooth. Most pilots will try to find those. Bouncing around is uncomfortable for them too - makes it difficult to tune radios, write, read, drink coffee, etc. So they will usually do what they can to search for smooth air.

Ultimately, you never really know what you're going to get. Those maps can help, but they are never a guarantee.

I don't think flights will make any routing changes based on these forecasts, as they are much less accurate than weather forecasts. And outside of actual severe turbulence reports - in real-time from actual pilots - or severe weather actually occurring, flights will likely just follow the planned route.

I use the US equivalent - http://www.aviationweather.gov/turbulence/gtg - to get a general feel for what might happen, but rely much more on PIREPS - http://www.aviationweather.gov/airep/gis - to see what's actually being reported. To they have the equivalent for Europe?

Hey,
Thank you for the reply!
(I gave the FL200-450 map just as an example for a FL300-350 forecast)

Anyway,
The question comes down really to whether a pilot will change course because of light-moderate turbulence (I can endure a light I guess, but incapable of going through a roller coast-like modeate, and of course, severe),
and, if anyone has experience comparing these forecasts to the actual flight's conditions.
Thanks

Pilots also don't like being thrown around, and they like their passengers to be as comfortable as possible. They avoid turbulence to the extent it's possible.

This article gives a pilot's perspective on the subject.

While I agree pilots want to avoid turbulence - the airline won't re-route a flight based on this type of a forecast. It will react to AIRMETS/SIGMETS, and specific PIREPS, but not this model, AFAIK.

AIRMETS = weather reports for pilots
SIGMETS = urgent weather reports for pilots
PIREPS = weather reports from other pilots

The turbulence forecast is not very accurate. Pilots and airlines use much more accurate information to guide their route choices.

I've been flying almost 10 years and can probably count on one hand where the route has changed due to turbulence. For shorter domestic flights it really doesn't make sense. Altitude changes will make a difference though. Once we get to cruising altitude, usually ATC will advise how the rides are based on earlier reports. They'll also suggest smoother altitudes if they know of any. Overseas flights will change flight paths though, but probably more because of winds.

I meant "route and elevation choices."

Thanks for your replies.
I guess I'm not more encouraged nor am I less..