What airlines will be around in 25 years time?
Apr 5, 2016, 2:24 pm
#16
Suspended
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 20
I see a few LCC dead, just not sure which ones. Sun Country? Frontier?
Hawaiian might be gone.
I see Delta, American, Southwest as the big ones.
United, I see dead. It may be broken up and sold.
United SFO - American
United DEN - American
United IAD - Delta
United IAH - Jet Blue
United EWR - American
United Pacific routes - American
some planes to Delta, American, Jet Blue
Hawaiian might be gone.
I see Delta, American, Southwest as the big ones.
United, I see dead. It may be broken up and sold.
United SFO - American
United DEN - American
United IAD - Delta
United IAH - Jet Blue
United EWR - American
United Pacific routes - American
some planes to Delta, American, Jet Blue
Last edited by Dean1; Apr 5, 2016 at 2:31 pm
Apr 5, 2016, 10:17 pm
#17
Suspended
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 179
25 years from now will be 2041. What airlines will be around?
If we look at 25 years ago, that was 1991. Some airlines around were....
Pan Am
Northwest
Continental (still alive now and called United)
America West (still alive now and called American)
Aloha
American Trans
Braniff (3)
Midway
If we look at 25 years ago, that was 1991. Some airlines around were....
Pan Am
Northwest
Continental (still alive now and called United)
America West (still alive now and called American)
Aloha
American Trans
Braniff (3)
Midway
Apr 6, 2016, 1:37 pm
#18
Suspended
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,808
That'll definitely drive substantial growth in China, India, and a few other places.
Wonder if the percentage of people flying in the U.S. will remain as high as it is today between lack of airline competition and a middle class that will probably continue to hollow out. It will depend a lot on ULCC's, I guess.
Wonder if the percentage of people flying in the U.S. will remain as high as it is today between lack of airline competition and a middle class that will probably continue to hollow out. It will depend a lot on ULCC's, I guess.
Apr 6, 2016, 5:19 pm
#20
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada
Programs: UA*1K MM SK EBG LATAM BL
Posts: 23,314
No govt bailout/loans = no airlines in North America
Apr 7, 2016, 1:19 am
#22
Suspended
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 179
agree with you because financial cost for airline business is so big and competition is very tight
Apr 7, 2016, 5:42 am
#23
Suspended
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Canada, USA, Europe
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 31,452
Can you go into specifics of how these are heavily subsidised? (I'll ignore for the moment that Ch 11 is a first cousin of subsidisation).
Apr 7, 2016, 10:41 am
#24
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 3,790
Years down the road, I only see DL, AA, UA, and WN being the only certain carriers left, with AS (and VX), B6, NK, G4, and HA either shutting down, merging with each other/the other big 4, or becoming much larger/different than they are now.
Apr 7, 2016, 10:46 am
#25
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
Posts: 52,575
Not to mention that most of the infrastructure besides the planes themselves is publicly funded. (I believe this is a good thing for many reasons...logistics, safety, standardization, etc....but it's a form of subsidization.)
Apr 7, 2016, 1:13 pm
#26
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada
Programs: UA*1K MM SK EBG LATAM BL
Posts: 23,314
Air Canada for example, successfully lobbied the government to stop ME3 from flying to Canada. Instead of competing, they are happy (as a public company!) to receive a govt subsidy in the form of interference/protectionism. Apart from that, they received bailout handouts in 2009.
Apr 7, 2016, 1:48 pm
#27
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: London (UK), Rome (Italy)
Programs: BA, Hilton, Lufthansa, Skywards, Sofitel, IHG
Posts: 94
A big question! I am sure some people (analysts) spend all day on this sort of thing. Balance sheets are a good clue. Oddly, and against purchaser sympathies, being strict with customers over flexibilities - making people pay to keep profits up - would be another green flag. And, companies that indicate they won't be badgered into subsidising other plans, like new airports, roadways etc that aren't their core business.
Apr 12, 2016, 6:06 am
#29
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: London, England.
Programs: BA
Posts: 8,476
It was notable that at deregulation in 1986, the US airline network still bore a strong relationship to the airmail routes given out by the government in the early 1930s, and that even today the main hubs tend to be those carried forward from that time. The United hubs of NYC (Newark), Chicago, Denver and San Francisco correspond exactly to their original Mainline transcontinental route of 85 years ago. American's transcontinental route was somewhat to the south, through Dallas to LA.
Apr 12, 2016, 8:36 am
#30
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Austin, TX - AUS
Programs: AA Platinum, Hilton, Hyatt, IHG, Marriott
Posts: 1,625
In the USA I see the smaller airlines combining together over the next 25 years. By 2041 we could have 6 airlines:
1 ULCC: Spirit+Frontier+Allegiant
1 LCC: Southwest
1 Upscale LCC: Alaska+Virgin America+JetBlue+Hawaiian
3 Global airlines: American, United, and Delta
1 ULCC: Spirit+Frontier+Allegiant
1 LCC: Southwest
1 Upscale LCC: Alaska+Virgin America+JetBlue+Hawaiian
3 Global airlines: American, United, and Delta