LUV/JBLU Rumors
Mar 18, 2024, 4:55 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2005
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, WN A-List
Posts: 209
LUV/JBLU Rumors
Was reading the news on SWAPA (pilots union) getting pretty agitated over potential seniority erosion.
Jet Blue is looking in a very sad state after the American and Spirit rulings. Too small to compete at 25% of the size of the majors. Carl Icahn took two board seats last month.
The market cap minus cash looks to be under $1B with revenue of $12B (JBLU has $1.5B of cash). Southwest are sitting on $12B of cash with a revenue of $26B. If they were able to get regulatory approval it would not be a stretch. HA/AS was smaller but very concentrated.
The big three airlines have revenues in the $50-$60B range so a combination would get Southwest out of the half sized "major" carrier zone., depending on what they lose to route overlap.
Obviously Southwest historically want a single fleet/single class. The 737 program being such a mess works against that. I cannot help but think even Alaska must be second guessing getting rid of all the A321/A320 fleet in such a huge hurry.
They said they did not want to do international either but do, I cannot see much growth for Southwest slugging it out with the big carriers and trying to be nimble on route changes. I doubt the HI adventure is much fun either, especially with Hawaiian and Alaska merging. A321XLR and even the neo could grow them across the Atlantic without going widebody. A European feeder would probably be a big problem - but their old Irish friend may be able to help with that.
Jet Blue is looking in a very sad state after the American and Spirit rulings. Too small to compete at 25% of the size of the majors. Carl Icahn took two board seats last month.
The market cap minus cash looks to be under $1B with revenue of $12B (JBLU has $1.5B of cash). Southwest are sitting on $12B of cash with a revenue of $26B. If they were able to get regulatory approval it would not be a stretch. HA/AS was smaller but very concentrated.
The big three airlines have revenues in the $50-$60B range so a combination would get Southwest out of the half sized "major" carrier zone., depending on what they lose to route overlap.
Obviously Southwest historically want a single fleet/single class. The 737 program being such a mess works against that. I cannot help but think even Alaska must be second guessing getting rid of all the A321/A320 fleet in such a huge hurry.
They said they did not want to do international either but do, I cannot see much growth for Southwest slugging it out with the big carriers and trying to be nimble on route changes. I doubt the HI adventure is much fun either, especially with Hawaiian and Alaska merging. A321XLR and even the neo could grow them across the Atlantic without going widebody. A European feeder would probably be a big problem - but their old Irish friend may be able to help with that.
Last edited by phil94028; Mar 18, 2024 at 6:12 pm Reason: wrong terms
Mar 18, 2024, 8:12 pm
#3
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 517
Southwest carries the most passengers domestically. I doubt the DOJ and FAA would ever allow the big 4 airlines to merge and capture more market share. If JetBlue were to end up in bankruptcy court, then I can see the big 4 and Alaska buying pieces of B6 similar to what happened with TWA and Pan Am. We are more likely see a private equity firm by JetBlue similar to how Frontier is owned by Indigo Partners.
Mar 19, 2024, 9:41 am
#4
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Nashville -Past DL Plat, FO, WN-CP, various hotel programs
Programs: DL-MM, AA, SW w/companion,HiltonDiamond, Hyatt PLat, IHF Plat, Miles and Points Seeker
Posts: 11,073
Southwest carries the most passengers domestically. I doubt the DOJ and FAA would ever allow the big 4 airlines to merge and capture more market share. If JetBlue were to end up in bankruptcy court, then I can see the big 4 and Alaska buying pieces of B6 similar to what happened with TWA and Pan Am. We are more likely see a private equity firm by JetBlue similar to how Frontier is owned by Indigo Partners.