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Old Jun 14, 2005, 2:09 am
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NWA...a casualty?

Does anyone think NW might soon be going into bankruptcy protection? If so, what would that mean to the alliance and its members? Maybe CO and other airlines could buy into NW?
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Old Jun 16, 2005, 2:20 am
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Originally Posted by samsonyuen
Does anyone think NW might soon be going into bankruptcy protection? If so, what would that mean to the alliance and its members? Maybe CO and other airlines could buy into NW?
What leads you into thinking they could go into ch.11? I thought that they look quite good compared to others like AA and DL or the bancrupt UA & US.

The only reason I see them doing that would be to get rid of their pension liabilities.
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Old Jun 16, 2005, 3:04 am
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Chairman's sales fuel NWA bankruptcy fears
Liz Fedor, Star Tribune
June 14, 2005 NWAC0614

Fears over a potential bankruptcy filing at Northwest Airlines spread Monday, sending the airline's stock down 12 percent.
The anxiety over Northwest's financial future was spurred by reports that Gary Wilson, Northwest's chairman, has sold about 59 percent of his shares since mid-May, including a huge sale reported late Friday.
In addition, Northwest's failed effort over the weekend to boost ticket prices highlighted again that the big airlines have little in the way of pricing power, which only adds to the urgency to cut costs.
Wilson "is getting rid of his stock while the getting is good," airline consultant Darryl Jenkins said Monday. Though Northwest and other old-line carriers may end up in bankruptcy court, Jenkins and other industry insiders do not think a Northwest bankruptcy filing is imminent.
The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Northwest could be headed toward bankruptcy but that a filing is not likely before 2006. The Northwest pilots union has urged other labor groups to reach new cost-cutting agreements in the coming months or the airline could be pushed into Chapter 11.
Northwest is attempting to reduce its annual labor costs by $1.1 billion and is in mediated talks to seek concessions from its mechanics, flight attendants and ground workers.
"If management believes that the unions will not give them what they want, it would be prudent to file bankruptcy," said Vaughn Cordle, a financial analyst with AirlineForecasts in Washington, D.C.
"Wilson is clearly sending a very strong signal that he is not messing around," Cordle said, referring to the $15.1 million in stock Wilson has sold.
Al Checchi, who worked with Wilson to organize an investment group that acquired Northwest in 1989, has sold $26.4 million worth of Northwest shares since January.
Jenkins, who is a visiting professor at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University, said employees naturally will be upset that Wilson is able to take millions out of the company through his stock sales. But he said employees owe it to themselves to forge labor agreements outside of bankruptcy.
"No labor group has ever fared better in Chapter 11," he said. "The judge looks out for the creditors first."
A week ago, Northwest CEO Doug Steenland told Wall Street analysts that bankruptcy is "an option that we are committed to doing our best to avoid."
But Northwest isn't entirely in control of that process. It needs Congress to enact legislation that would stretch out its pension payments over 25 years. And management said it needs workers to agree to deep pay cuts because, by most measures, Northwest's labor costs are among the highest in the industry.
Northwest management and the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association (AMFA) are locked in a contentious round of negotiations. The airline has eliminated 43 percent of AMFA jobs since the end of 2000 and is notifying more than 700 members of more job cuts this summer.
In addition, the company is seeking 25 to 26 percent wage cuts, benefit cuts and work-rule changes to reduce its AMFA labor costs by $176 million per year. The union's leaders are fighting those cutbacks, saying their members already have sacrificed too much through massive layoffs. During informational picketing Thursday, Northwest mechanics said management is pushing AMFA toward a strike.
The mechanics "don't want to give up what is required," Cordle said. "It's hard to blame them, but without cost savings I think it's pretty clear that Northwest is headed for bankruptcy."
Duane Woerth, president of the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), said that Northwest still is fighting to stay out of bankruptcy but that it needs to slash costs and reschedule payments because it can't continue to borrow money indefinitely.
Northwest had an unrestricted cash balance of $2.1 billion at the end of the first quarter. However, it has lost about $3.3 billion on its operations since 2001.
If Northwest's cash balance falls to $1.5 billion, it might be forced to file for bankruptcy protection, Woerth said in an interview.
"The amount of cash that Northwest would want to go into bankruptcy with is a lot more than Delta," said Woerth, a former Northwest board member. Unlike Delta, Northwest doesn't "have things to sell," he said.
At this point, Northwest is focused on getting deals with AMFA and its biggest union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), Woerth said.
"I think Northwest is going to force the issue earlier and find out if they can do a deal," Woerth said. "If Northwest Airlines gives up and says a reasonable person simply can't conclude that he can get an agreement with the IAM or AMFA, then it's unreasonable to stay out of bankruptcy."
While the bankruptcy word was being discussed Monday, Northwest also confirmed that it had rescinded three fare increases it filed Thursday. American and Delta refused to match the increase in business fares and minimum stay changes. Also, low-fare competitors did not match a $5 to $10 increase that Northwest attempted to implement.
"Since the beginning of the year, Northwest has initiated six broad price increases, three of which are still in place," Northwest spokesman Kurt Ebenhoch said.
Northwest shares closed Monday at $5.58 per share.
_______________________________
Heard on the Street: Is Northwest heading for Chapter 11?

Monday, June 13, 2005

By Susan Carey, The Wall Street Journal

Now that US Airways and United Airlines have improved their chances of emerging from bankruptcy-court protection, another carrier -- Northwest Airlines -- may be steering perilously close to Chapter 11.

Bad news is stacking up at Northwest like jets circling Detroit's Metro Airport on a stormy evening. The company's stock has lost 42 percent this year but was up nine cents, or 1.4 percent, to $6.33 in 4 p.m. Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading Friday. On June 1, Fitch Ratings pushed the company's senior unsecured debt rating deeper into speculative, or junk, territory, downgrading it to triple-C-plus from single-B and citing unsustainably high labor costs and pension-plan obligations.

Gary Wilson, the airline's largest individual shareholder and its nonexecutive chairman, has been selling his stake at a brisk pace. The company is girding for possible labor strikes, and a bankruptcy-court filing could be an option if Northwest can't persuade Congress to change pension law.

Northwest, the nation's fourth-largest airline by passenger traffic, is being hurt by problems affecting mature U.S. carriers: weak pricing, high fuel prices and the rapid growth of slimmer discount airlines. But the Eagan, Minn., company, with a market value of about $552 million, also is facing challenges because rivals have extracted concessions in Chapter 11 or under the threat of it, leaving Northwest with the U.S. industry's highest labor costs.

US Airways Group Inc. and UAL Corp.'s United have used Chapter 11 to significantly cut worker wages and benefits, to outsource more work and to dump underfunded pensions on a federal pension insurer. Delta Air Lines and AMR Corp.'s American Airlines also have won concessions, although Delta remains a potential candidate for a Chapter 11 filing.

Northwest has excised more than $1.7 billion annually in nonlabor expenses since early 2001, and those costs are now lower than many of its peers. Recently, the airline took heat from consumers after saying it would eliminate free pretzels and magazines on flights. At the same time, the carrier has continued to spend on airport technology and to order new planes so it won't have to play catch-up if the market rebounds.

Despite four years of operating losses capped by a $450 million first-quarter net loss, Northwest has more than $2 billion in cash as well as valuable assets in its Pacific route network, cargo business and fortress hubs in the upper Midwest. Until now, it appeared set to ride out the industry's current storm.

"Unless labor unions grant cost concessions and agree to pension-plan changes, Northwest could be facing a bankruptcy filing going into 2006," says Evan Mann, a Gimme Credit analyst, in a research note. The independent research firm doesn't rate or hold any shares of Northwest.

Bankruptcy court "clearly is not the preferred choice and is not our first option," says Doug Steenland, Northwest's chief executive. "It's clear we need to realize competitive labor costs."

In 2004, Northwest's unit labor cost -- the employee expense associated with each seat flown a mile -- was 4.22 cents, compared with 1.78 cents for JetBlue Airways, 3.13 cents for Southwest Airlines and 3.86 cents for American, according to Morgan Stanley. Northwest has told workers it must reduce their costs by a total of $1.1 billion a year. Pilots have agreed to an initial $265 million in savings, and management employees provided $35 million.

The carrier is negotiating with unions representing mechanics, flight attendants and other ground workers. Recently, the mechanics, the highest-paid in the industry thanks to a 2001 contract, have been singled out for pressure.

Northwest last month told the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association it wanted to achieve $176 million in savings by eliminating 2,800 of 5,300 jobs and cutting the remaining workers' pay by 26 percent. Ted Ludwig, president of the AMFA local in Minneapolis that represents many Northwest mechanics, says a 50 percent head-count reduction would never be ratified by union members, adding: "If Northwest continues down this path, a strike could be inevitable."

Northwest is readying itself to fly through a strike. "We'll be prepared ... to meet the needs of our customers," Mr. Steenland said. The airline has engaged outside vendors to meet its maintenance needs and is working with a recruitment firm to line up new flight attendants.

Complicating negotiations is Northwest's strategy for its three pension plans, which are underfunded by $3.8 billion. The company backs a Senate bill that would let U.S. carriers have 25 years to fund their plans fully instead of the current three to five. In return, the carriers -- with workers' consent -- would freeze their defined-benefit plans, which pay fixed benefits, and put future contributions into cheaper 401(k)-type plans. The federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the pension insurer, wouldn't have to take over the underfunded plans, as it did with US Airways and United. The bill faces an uncertain path in Congress.

The slide in Northwest's stock price prompted Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Linenberg this month to upgrade the stock to "buy" from "neutral," mostly because it is underperforming versus AMR, up 24 percent this year, and Continental Airlines, up about 5 percent. Merrill does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. But Bear Stearns a month ago downgraded Northwest shares to "peer perform" from "outperform," based on the view that the company "is now within one year of Chapter 11," according to a research note by analyst David Strine. Bear Stearns has no investment-banking relationship with Northwest, nor does it hold the stock.

Adding to the anxiety is heavy insider selling of Northwest shares, paced by Mr. Wilson, one of two financiers who led the airline's 1989 leveraged buyout. According to Securities and Exchange Commission filings, Mr. Wilson had reduced his stake to 1.75 million shares as of last week from 4.34 million shares on March 31. A Northwest spokesman said on Mr. Wilson's behalf that the executive is diversifying and remains a large shareholder.
____________________________
Financial strife looms for Northwest
By Dan Reed, USA TODAY
Northwest Airlines' shares fell 12% Monday amid investor speculation that it will follow United and US Airways into Chapter 11 bankruptcy-court protection. (Related story: Northwest backs down on $50 fare increase)
With United and US Airways both now making at least modest progress toward emerging from bankruptcy, the spotlight is turning to Northwest, the USA's No. 4 carrier. And for good reason. The Eagan, Minn.-based airline is having trouble getting labor costs down and revenue up.

Analyst Evan Mann at bond researcher Gimme Credit warned recently that Northwest's liquidity — $2.1 billion in unrestricted cash as of March 31 — "will likely begin to erode after the seasonally strong summer flying period."

Shares closed Monday at $5.58, down 75 cents. Apparently deepening the sell-off was a column in Monday's Wall Street Journal. The column, Heard on the Street, noted that Fitch Ratings had downgraded Northwest's bonds to junk status in May, that non-executive Chairman Gary Wilson has been aggressively selling his shares, and that dark clouds are gathering on Northwest's labor horizon. For the year, the share price is down 49%.

Among the troubling developments for Northwest:

•Labor. The National Mediation Board has turned down — for now — management's request for a release from its long-running contract talks with the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association. That delayed a potential showdown with labor that could have come up in mid-July. Management seeks $1 billion in annual employee savings. So far, it has obtained only $300 million from pilots, management and non-union workers.

JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker suggested in a May 26 report that Northwest can fly through a mechanics strike and wants to push AMFA to avoid a strike by accepting a concessions deal that could eliminate lots of union jobs.

•Fares. Late Sunday, Northwest backed off its sixth effort this year to push through a fare increase. Three of those efforts succeeded, and Northwest has implemented an additional five fare increases initiated by competitors. Still, average fares remain lower than they were in 2000, and Northwest's big losses continue.

•Pensions. Northwest's pensions are underfunded by $3.8 billion. CEO Doug Steenland last week testified before the Senate in support of a bill that would allow the airline to freeze employees' defined-benefit plans, to switch to less-costly defined-contribution plans such as 401(k)s and to stretch out over 25 years the airline's required catch-up payments to its retirement plans. Failure to get that relief could force Northwest into Chapter 11, Steenland said.
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Old Jun 16, 2005, 6:35 am
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Originally Posted by samsonyuen
Does anyone think NW might soon be going into bankruptcy protection? If so, what would that mean to the alliance and its members? Maybe CO and other airlines could buy into NW?
More then likely they will before the year is over, but Delta will be in first. The US members are all broke. NW and Delta are going in too get rid of the Pensions, CO said they want to keep pensions for now.
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Old Jun 16, 2005, 6:39 am
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Wow, I have been travelling this weekend till Tuesday and those news escaped me till now. Thanks for quoting!

But still I can't think of them going into ch.11 as long as AA and DL don't... And Wilson selling his stocks shortly before a ch.11 situation is ridiculous - as an insider he would probably get into real problems, wouldn't he?

However, let's hope for the best...
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Old Jun 17, 2005, 8:20 pm
  #6  
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Originally Posted by samsonyuen
Does anyone think NW might soon be going into bankruptcy protection? If so, what would that mean to the alliance and its members? Maybe CO and other airlines could buy into NW?

Interestingly, the same people who purchased controlling shares in NWA own 4% of CO and a smaller % of KLM.

I do not see NWA going the bankrupt route until next year - if at all. They have money on hand (more then CO and DL combined). They more likely will be grounded by a strike. Many employees no longer care about the airline - and why should they?
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