So, JX went from first to last in SEA over the course of 5 months, or maybe I'm misinterpreting your data?

That's the data so your interpretation is correct

Chronicle of events happened YTD:

JX went to daily from March 1.
BR did not end it's seasonal 3 weekly flight on the second week of March as usual (was announced Oct 2024).
DL ungauged from 339 to 359 end of March.
Nothing for CI in the mean time, still 5 weekly.

Seattle isn't the only destination where this happened. Los Angeles is also in the same boat since they added JX 6/5 in December (and they are axing it next year). San Francisco is in the same trend although they were never first with UA involved, but they don't really have a flight to axe unless they are not keeping daily.

LAX/ONT is definitely saturated and with JX starting ONT in June, something has to give soon.

JX will axe 6/5 LAX coming January and has not released 2 weekly booking for ONT (which I think they eventually will cause the ones missing are weekends).

JX 6/5 will first be reduced to two weekly the coming winter schedule and then completely wiped middle of next January (originally February). It's said they are starting PHX in February, but that means there are additional 359s floating around.

Looks like DL did better than UA in May. Any ideas why?

I don't think DL is any better than UA consider the amount of passengers it carried is 2x less. The variation is bigger and is more of within the range of fluctuation (+/- 5%).

Though, DL did do way more promotions than UA.

For Delta, the success of this Taipei is critical to validating the SEA as tpac gateway strategy, which they've bet big on. United already dominates the third largest tpac market in the US (no single carrier has a remote chance of dominating LAX or JFK, so SFO isn't a bad card to hold), and this will remain the case whether or not they promote it all.

I wonder with all this hub-bub about SEA and Delta and competition, if people have looked at the bigger picture.

SEA is the 6th largest O&D market for Asia/Oceania in the US. Honolulu is the 4th largest, so you can largely ignore that since that's completely different from the lower 48, with the other 4 being LA/NYC/SF/CHI, respectively. SEA's fastest growing population is the Asian population. Delta is 100% here to stay for TPAC, there is no other better Asia gateway remaining because the others are either controlled by UA or have too many other disadvantages like distance for NYC or competition at LA.

Yes, SEA will probably never match SFO in size for UA's TPAC OPs, even if the SF metro continues to shrink and SEAs continues to grow. The only other top 10 demand metro in Delta's network is BOS, which is completely unsuited to be a TPAC hub.

Well, if DL continues the promotion at SEA, we the passengers are the only ones to benefit.

I wonder whether AS will let DL continue to make SEA the Asia gateway. Unlike SFO, DL is not a well established carrier in Seattle (though they have the Delta One Lounge opening the last couple days). With ICN and NRT being commenced, I can only see TPE becoming the next target (and that is already a bloodbath for Delta).

My money is on them avoiding TPE like the plague. While it's true that AS is highly protective of SEA, management tends to be quite conservative on the whole and refrains from deliberately launching loss-making routes, in particular. I could envision HKG, though, if CX doesn't beat them to the punch.

HKG is a good possibility if CX does not restart, but only HKG/ICN/NRT? AS needs more than just these to create a competing environment over DL on transpacific services.

I do agree TPE is not a good choice based on the fare seen, but SEA-ICN seems to be a loss making route as well? AS has virtually no connection beyond ICN and DL/KE/OZ is the market player.

There's no Alaska "letting". Alaska is facing its own challenge, as Alaska's new SEA-NRT route has a 70% LF despite having 2x the size of DL at SEA. DL is an established carrier in the grand scheme of the US. SEA is both an O&D location, and a connecting hub. Only one or two flights a day connect well to these bank of international flights that DL and AS are selling. Only one or two flights a day can go from BOS/JFK and connect same-day out of SEA.

Delta has much more experience operating and managing international flights and generally has done well longhaul. They have very strong performers in AMS/CDG/HND/ICN, many of which outperform even their interior DL hubs of MSP/DTW/SLC.

Zero-shot or reason for Alaska to launch TPE.

Beijing might have legs too, especially if they are permitted to fly to PEK (Delta doesn't have that option at present).

I am not sure where you are coming from but Delta's performance at Seattle has been quite poor despite announcing SEA a hub like more than 10 years ago? They tried to make this hub feasible multiple times and have added and cancelled transpacific flights throughout the past decade (regardless of COVID), but I haven't really seen much of a positive progress on Seattle to Asia for DL (and AS isn't going to help them after getting dumped and became direct competitors 15 years ago) other than having a Delta One lounge now to service the passengers (but if they can't up the fares or increase the # of routes, this lounge isn't going to be a game changer).

HA merging with AS will only provide more competition for DL at SEA and it won't stop at just ICN and NRT for Asia. SEA is the only realistic hub that AS has in the 48 contingent US and they are not going to let DL take the pie away. While I believe AS should operate more transpacific flights out of Seattle to compete, it's not like DL is doing much better here (with just TPE, PVG, ICN and HND). Europe is just a tad better with LHR, CDG, FCO (to start next year). It's not difficult for AS to do catch up with planes from HA.

https://www.reddit.com/r/delta/comments/17q51o7/deltas_seattle_hub_is_worst_hub_financially_for/
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta-air-lines-skymiles/2140684-dl-sea-worst-performing-hub-us-financially.html

Delta has been bleeding at Seattle to compete with AS and UA at SFO. They don't have a choice as SFO is already well hubbed by UA and LAX is just a cluster.... where no US airline dominates and the foreign airlines will just eat anyone alive there with the vast superior service provided on transpacific routes.

I didn't include China cause I don't think AS/HA have rights there.

ICN and NRT were low hanging fruits because HA already has a presence at both. I think it's a bit early to pass judgment on their performance because it will presumably take 6+ months for people to realize these routes exist.