Upgrades are clearly more difficult due to a combination of factors. The biggest culprit IMO is cheap UP and UPDI fares. Front cabins on domestic flights are mostly filling on purchased F.

That said, I have one flight in Y this year out of approx. 34K miles, and that's with PQD under 10 cpm. And that one Y flight (EWR-SFO) I could have upgraded at T-60 when it suddenly went R1. Decided row 4 on a 739 wasn't worth the RPU, since I already had 21A with an empty middle (that was a bad call, btw, those slimlines are miserable).

My keys to sitting up front are flight selection, relentless checking for open R, and jumping immediately on the reasonably priced buy-ups.

United has made it clear that they will sell any upgrade they can before they give it away to anyone, including their own MP elites. Upgrades will not become easier, they will become more difficult and more expensive.

Maybe I just haven't been paying attention, but where does one get the cheap TODs into F? I've never seen it pop up when I do online check-in, and whenever I check my rezzie before the flight, I've never encountered a really cheap buy-up to first.

I generally agree. It will be interesting to see since I have an SFO-IAD RT coming up and I'm trying to use my RPU. We'll see. I'm not expecting anything.

Frankly, I expect this year to be the "great culling" the change from 10k spend to 12k spend may be the end of me for 1k this year I'm afraid. On the other hand since I can buy the upgrades maybe I can just decide to fly who I want when I want. That's the rub for UA.

I see lots of flights F1 or F0 more than five days from departure, and based on my own purchases, I think the decline is largely due to advance sales of F-cabin seats as mentioned by Kacee. On my most commonly flown route, a flight that is 3+ hours long, P is often available for $60-80 more one-way than coach (regardless of class available). If it is available for that price I always purchase it as there are very few last minute upgrades on that particular route, which I'm keeping top secret because I don't want you to all start buying up the cheap F-seats.

Unlike last year, I have gotten a couple on-board upgrades this year, due to either no-shows, which are fairly common on routes like ORD-IAH, DCA-IAH, and LGA-IAH or the fact that the TODs seem to jump in price when it gets down to 1 or 2 seats left. I have seen with traveling companies that an upgrade was available for $79 or $109 when there were three seats in F available, but then it was $569 when it was down to the last seat. Not too many people will pay $569 for an upgrade on a domestic flight, even on DCA-IAH.

IAH-MCO is a very reliable upgrade for me. And when purchasing only that segment the price for P is much higher than economy, which is probably why so many seats are left available for free upgrades. It may not be true if flying say OKC-IAH-MCO, I haven't checked upgrade prices, although the coach prices are routinely cheaper for the connection. (darn airline pricing!) Of course, it is likely not a Premier-heavy route on most days. But TPA, particularly around holidays, often has P for a very small premium over coach. Depending on my destination sometimes TPA is a decent option for me.

Last year: upgrade something like 98/100. This year: missed quite a few.

Anecdotes will just make you sick. These threads don't help.

UA never remotely suggested that thinning the elite herd would lead to more UG's. Rather:

1. Less capacity
2. Improved economy = more paid F.
3. More realistic pricing of FC seats (-UP, UG's)

All combine to mean fewer CPU's. I doubt that UA will eliminate CPU's as they serve a purpose. But, the idea that up-front freebies will routinely be available on desireable routes is long gone.

Same on DL and AA, so it's not as though jumping ship will get you much.

Has any data been presented that elite numbers have decreased?

If not, I propose no more "herd thinning" threads due to PQD's. Lots of reasons for elites to leave UA...But I still doubt many outside of FT were impacted by PQD's.

Perfectly stated on all counts. add in the reduction to 3 major carriers (at similar points in the business cycle a decade ago, someone would have gone after disappointed UA elites), and you have it. The only up-side is that some of the p-ups are really rationally priced.

Agree with 1st sentence, disagree with 2nd. Helps in understanding that others also feel the pain.

Dropped to Platinum last year, remain there this year. Only 1 CPU success so far in these 2 years (MCO-CLE, where even Silvers were upgraded), and there were still empty seats. Mighty struggle to use my RPUs.


Year 1 of merger, I posted that I believe that elite levels would become important only for access to E+. Yuk, that seems to have come true.
Oh well, looking forward ( ) to becoming Gold in �16!

0/8 GPU (carried 2 over), 0/2 RPU. I cannot be bothered to check R0 or RN0 any longer (as it is just always that). Mostly all through/to SFO from LHR. And as for buy an upgrade, they can go to hell.

Which is why becoming 1k is less important than it once was.

And, buying a ticket for the cabin you want to be seated in is more important than it ever was.

+1

I would have guessed that there would be about the same number of elites, but maybe fewer 1Ks and more silver/gold. Has anyone noticed a thinning at the top?

Agreed absolutely, hence why United thinks it's better to always chase the occasional buyer based on price, rather than keep the customers that spend 10-15K every year.

No wonder they have to go after the ME3 airlines so hard, the only reason people had to stay with UA was the FF benefits and program. With those benefits eliminated, United simply can't compete on value for product. People would fly UA even when OAL's offered a better product, for a better price, because they would potentially get an upgrade, or get miles they could use for other travel. All that is gone, so now United has what it wanted all along, fresh new customers that it has to draw on price alone.

As to the question of elite population, we'll never know, without some insider information. The upgrade list length says nothing about the mix, maybe there are fewer 1Ks and plats...who knows.

The two GPU's that were going to expire in January, that UA extended to April 30th, are again about to expire.

I have applied them on PHX, LAX, ORD, and LAS flights and have not cleared any of them (not all my flights, some for others).

Some benefit, thanks UA...