Agreed absolutely, hence why United thinks it's better to always chase the occasional buyer based on price, rather than keep the customers that spend 10-15K every year.

No wonder they have to go after the ME3 airlines so hard, the only reason people had to stay with UA was the FF benefits and program. With those benefits eliminated, United simply can't compete on value for product. People would fly UA even when OAL's offered a better product, for a better price, because they would potentially get an upgrade, or get miles they could use for other travel. All that is gone, so now United has what it wanted all along, fresh new customers that it has to draw on price alone.

As to the question of elite population, we'll never know, without some insider information. The upgrade list length says nothing about the mix, maybe there are fewer 1Ks and plats...who knows.