vicmmen

Looked for similar threads but could not find any.

Anyway, would like to know if the change in several United MP rules has driven away sufficient fliers reducing competition for upgrades (CPUs or with instruments). So far my own data points indicate that upgrade competition has not been significantly affected. Usually the #1 boarding line is the longest an (probably a CC effect), my CPU hit rate is low (maybe because of SFO hub) and even using RPU upgrades are difficult to come by.
I was expecting a significant reduction in 1K with the spend req but have not seen any indication of this.
Any other data points out there.

Mod. Please move if this is covered elsewhere. Thanks.

bmwe92fan

95 percent of my travel is international and I have not noticed any difference at all....

Kacee

You're not going to see any positive changes to MP as a 1K or below.

Credit card gets Group 2 boarding, not Group 1.

cmculp

Kacee is right. even if the numbers do winnow, the aggressive P fare pricing means there are no longer any F seats to show up as R or Pn inventory. New reality.

CO_Nonrev_elite

Upgrades are not hard to come by due to the amount of elites, upgrades are hard to come by because United will offer cheap buyups to anyone and basically keep dropping the price until someone buys it before they will let anyone get it for free.

luckypierre

Repeat, repeatedly the following MileagePlus Mantra. Any reduction in the number of elites will result in a greater chance for upgrading.

Ignore any conversations overheard at the counter about that very seat being sold for $99.95 to the couple from Des Moines going to visit the grandkids in Houston.

At the risk of becoming disillusioned about the pursuit of elite status, do not engage in a quest for personal enlightenment by internet searching for terms such as "Smisek, premium cabin monetization"

mkr

The title of your thread and question SPECIFICALLY relates to whether there has been significant winnowing of elites in 2015.
(Upgrades is a subordinate issue somewhat related to number of elites, but upgrades is more related to available inventory...a separate issue from number of elites. There are many other threads that already discuss upgrades, and it has to do with little inventory, not elite status. There are P fares, more persons buying higher fares, and TODs to be considered).

TO ADDRESS THE SPECIFIC SUBJECT OF YOUR THREAD...LOOKING FOR DATA ABOUT WINNOWING OF ELITES in 2015..........

There are 3 current threads in 2015 (see links below) that attempt to find data points that address your thread topic about "winnowing" of elites. Of course, we do not know how well those who respond to those threads represent the greater population of MP Premiers who do not post in the MileagePlus Forum. But at least you will get some idea about "winnowing" in 2015 from those MileagePlus FTers who respond in those threads.

Those threads address "winnowing" of elites, which is your thread topic. Those threads do not address specifically upgrades ( a subordinate topic somewhat related to number of elites), although some persons do address upgrades in their responses to those threads.... and persons are still burning instruments from 2014 that were extended into 2015.

As Kacee has noted, CC holders are in Boarding group 2, so they will not affect the size of Boarding group 1, from where you are looking for an indication of a significant reduction of 1Ks (remember 1Ks that drop to Platinum will still be in Boarding Group 1). It will only be noticeable if significant numbers of 1Ks drop below Platinum, and if significant numbers of Platinums drop, that one will begin to see some drop in size of Boarding group one ( but other factors are also at play...day of week, city, route, cancellations/delays of other flights, SDCs, etc. )

SFO is your hub. SFO based FTers have reported in these threads that SFO is very elite heavy, so any "winnowing" is not likely going to have much effect. Also, SFO FTers have reported that many companies in the SFO area purchase First Class or Business for their employees, so there is less inventory for upgrades to begin with.


I think it is WAAYYY to early to determine if winnowing affects upgrades.

If anything, if a large number of 1Ks have significantly dropped in status, 1Ks and Plats may notice some slight improvement in upgrades. On the other hand, as others have already noted, P pricing and TODs will have some effect upon the number of available seats for upgrades.
We really do not know the extent, as many other factors will affect available seats for upgrades...routes taken, time of day, day of week, elite heavy cities, etc.

Here are the links to those threads I mentioned earlier to answer your thread topic regarding if there is data about "winnowing" of elites... (and I noticed that you had already posted in the two surveys before you began this current thread, so I wonder why you said you had searched and had found no other threads that had data about winnowing of elites).

The more that MileagePlus Flyertalkers do post in those threads, the more data we will have.

[Survey] From 2014-15 Did your MP Status Increase, Decrease, or remain the same?

( As of this date, this above thread has data compiled from 200 respondants ( noted in the WIKI from 2/2-2/10. So far, the data from those 200 respondants indicates a significant drop in the number of 1Ks.)

[2015] Version: Survey of plans you have in 2015 for earning 2016 Premier status.

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...-1-2015-a.html

PushingTin

My CPUs are at 33%, but that doesn't factor in an expiring GPU and a buy-up that I did, otherwise I would be at about 25%. I have been #1 on some of those upgrade lists, once with a pretty low fare class.

I think I need to re-adjust my expectations. Be amazed at upgrades instead of expecting them.

I do have a GPU set up for a TATL, but that is on LH metal- which seems to be the best way to use GPUs.

I just wish that UA would get it over with and go to a CPU-less system and just give more RPUs that clear ahead of the 24 hour window.

I'm on something like 70-90 domestic legs. Give 1Ks something like 20RPUs that have a high chance of clearing before they start bidding them out.

UA only cares about F seats sold and GSers- groups that largely overlap. Everything else is going to get dollarized. I fully expect that they will start sending out statements about how much they have 'given' or 'saved' us by E+ seats ($50 pop), baggage fees (whether or not we have checked bags- "We saved you up to $ = #Flts multiplied #Free bags multiplied $baggage fee") and CPU/GPU upgrades (F fare at time of clearing minus fare actually paid). I'm guessing that some people's numbers (especially with the bag possible allowance) would be higher than the fares that we've paid.

ETA: I have met a 1K that will lose his status for 2015. Since he was flying Y to India and back mostly, he could make the miles, but not the spend. I bet there are more than a few that run that route that will fall off. I guess this won't make more elites, so it is a 'positive' for those of us that survive, but I agree that they buy ups will more than swamp the upgrades.

Plus, how high will the spend be for 2016 travel? Are they going to keep raising it 25% a year? I have already seen lower fares this year- it could really start to be a factor for more fliers.

ContinentalFan

^

Bingo! It's hard to fault them for that move, but yet I gripe.

exerda

Too early for me to say. I have traveled in paid F twice (8 flights) and internationally twice (2 UA segments, 3 partner segments so far), so I haven't had much chance to really evaluate.

Waitlists for F on the flights I took were similar to last year in size, but several were at peak days / times, excepting IAD-ORD-NRT. Check-in at IAD seems to be longer for the 1K line, if anything; I haven't checked-in at any other hub, and outstations don't give a good idea.

halls120

^^

mkr

If UA did that, they would not have those selling points for persons to attain Silver, Gold, Platinum, and 1K.

flyingnosh

SFO is an outlier. It is a connecting hub for TPACs, where many 1Ks probably pay for J, who therefore aren't impacted by PQD.

People who lost 1K because of PQD are now Plat, which means they're still in boarding group 1. (Not complaining, just pointing it out.)
As much as I don't like to admit it, there's a lot of truth in this. What other industry is so generous? Imaging car dealers working like this. "Thank you for purchasing that Chevy below dealer invoice. Because you do this so often, let me give you a free upgrade to a Cadillac."

Anyway, back on topic, my CPU rate is 82% so far this year, actually slightly less than it was a year ago.

Continited

Not sure if this is related, but at my home airports of IAH and EWR, since switching my loyalty to Delta in August of last year, I have noticed a significant INCREASE of elites on delta to/from IAH and EWR. Again, not sure if this is in any way related to any drop off from United at IAH or EWR, but an interesting observation none the less.

Singapore_Schwing

It's more that people connecting to or from Int'l J at SFO typically are in paid first for domestic legs. It's not so much a PQD issue, as the demographics of those connecting. Those flying through ORD or DEN for example, are much more likely to be on domestic itins, where buying F is less common (due to company policy, or shorter flights making paid F or C less worth while).