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SAS Chapter 11 Bankruptcy & SAS FORWARD Restructuring Plan

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SAS Chapter 11 Bankruptcy & SAS FORWARD Restructuring Plan

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Old Mar 27, 2024, 11:30 am
  #436  
 
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Originally Posted by dark_phoenix
I think the question is what would SAS have brought to LH that it wasn't already mostly doing itself?

LH already flies to the major Scandinavian cities on its own metal. SAS has been pricing its iintra-Europe Plus flights so high that it is only nominally more expensive to fly LH business where you get a better meal and a guaranteed free middle seat. On reward redemptions, SAS-only redemptions are increasingly non-competitive compared to Star Alliance Award pricing (SK is pushing its dynamic points award pricing). LH has further reach than SAS on international routes as well. Secretly, LH is probably excited to get back some lounge capacity as SAS has a high number of EBG cardholders who don't travel very much to get their status (you can get EBG just on strategic credit card spend on AmEx SAS Elite and SAS Mastercard Premium).

If I were LH, I don't think I would have purchased SAS. And I say that as someone who wishes that LH would have purchased SAS despite what I wrote above as I am not looking forward to joining The Airline Alliance That God Forgot (Sky Team).
Yes, I understand, yes, it's really no candy, but LH has taken advantage of a lot of time to transfer intercontinental passengers to Frankfurt, a passenger that as soon as you decide to invest in growth, you can take them without any problem. I imagine that I'm also speaking from a place of nostalgia, being SAS, a founding airline of the Star Alliance.

Lufthansa is also not very interested in SAS starting to grow.

On the other hand I agree with you regarding Sky team
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Old Mar 27, 2024, 6:04 pm
  #437  
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Originally Posted by steve harrington
I understand it but it shouldn't be an extremely big problem, right? Furthermore, SAS does not have an extraordinarily large intercontinental network, and it has a fairly high margin for growth. In my opinion, the growth could be organic.
With the more tough stand taken on these JVs in both sides of the Atlantic, it is not going to be a walk in the park to get SK included in the Skyteam JV. I think the initial 19% share was chosen to avoid any entanglements with the competition authorities.
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Old Mar 27, 2024, 8:10 pm
  #438  
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Originally Posted by steve harrington
Yes, I understand, yes, it's really no candy, but LH has taken advantage of a lot of time to transfer intercontinental passengers to Frankfurt, a passenger that as soon as you decide to invest in growth, you can take them without any problem. I imagine that I'm also speaking from a place of nostalgia, being SAS, a founding airline of the Star Alliance.

Lufthansa is also not very interested in SAS starting to grow.

On the other hand I agree with you regarding Sky team
LH could spend a billion USD to grow SAS, or they can let AF-KLM spend a billion, and just siphon off the frequent travellers who would switch to them to stay within Star Alliance. Those are the only customers LH wants out of this. LH doesn't have to worry about the other travellers. If SK already can't make enough money off the other leisure/price sensitive travellers, LH is unlikely to fare any better.

I think SAS will be able to join the AFKLM venture. I wouldn't hold my breath on any chance of the EU saying no to this. I don't think they'll do more than force SAS-AF-KLM to give up some gate slots at CPH, ARN, and OSL
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Old Mar 28, 2024, 3:41 am
  #439  
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Originally Posted by fassy
Interesting enough, I also got the same notice. Not being shareholder. I guess it is about having EB points on my account (actually over 680k), so in theory, I am also a debtor.

Which in turn makes me wonder: They probably can kill of the point balance during these proceedings... which would suck a lot.
680K, that is a lot... I had about 300K, and I recently bought three round trips to Asia in business class for the coming year. I was worried the points would devalue quickly!
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Old Mar 28, 2024, 3:59 am
  #440  
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Scandinavian airline SAS lost 2.3 billion Swedish kronor, around 1.5 billion Danish kroner, in the months November 2023-February 2024, including 500 million kroner in February alone.

The figures come from accounts which the company is obliged to report each month as part of a bankruptcy protection (Chapter 11) process it is undergoing in the United States.The accounting shows that in February, SAS operated with a loss of 822 million Swedish kronor, which corresponds to 535 million Danish kroner or 835 million Norwegian kroner.

Although the company’s February losses are larger than expected, turnover at the airline is in line with expectations according to analyst Jacob Pedersen of Danish bank Sydbank.“Revenue in February 2024 is only modestly better than in the same month last year, despite a marked increase in turnover. This progress is naturally positive but also driven by a lift in revenues from the leap year this year, which doesn’t raise costs by the same level,” he said in a written comment.

From November to February, SAS posted a turnover of just under 11.8 billion Swedish kronor, equivalent to just over 7.7 billion Danish kroner. For February alone, turnover was just under 2.9 billion Swedish kronor, around 1.9 billion kroner. This means that, compared to February in 2023, SAS has raised revenues by around 400 million Swedish kronor.

Pedersen, who closely follows aviation markets, said that the February figures are evidence “significantly more work” must be done by SAS to catch competitors on revenue.

Last edited by Q_Q; Mar 28, 2024 at 12:30 pm
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Old Mar 28, 2024, 6:14 am
  #441  
 
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Originally Posted by Q_Q

Scandinavian airline SAS lost 2.3 billion Swedish kronor, around 1.5 billion Danish kroner, in the months November 2023-February 2024, including 500 million kroner in February alone.

Those are some large numbers. (And some large text, perhaps a glitch in FT post formatting?).
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Old Mar 28, 2024, 9:34 am
  #442  
 
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Originally Posted by Q_Q
680K, that is a lot... I had about 300K, and I recently bought three round trips to Asia in business class for the coming year. I was worried the points would devalue quickly!
Yeah, do not have the option to use them at the moment... And on the few trips I do at the moment, I can't find any availability in I. And I refuse to buy long haul X on points
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Old Apr 8, 2024, 3:35 am
  #443  
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Some more insight from the EU commission on the ITA-LH merger:

As a result of this in-depth investigation, the Commission is concerned that the transaction may:
  • Reduce competition on a certain number of short-haul routes connecting Italy with countries in Central Europe. On such routes, Lufthansa and ITA compete or will compete head-to-head mainly with direct, but also with indirect flights. Competition in such routes appears limited and comes primarily from low-cost carriers, such as Ryanair, who in many cases operate from more remote airports.
  • Reduce competition on a certain number of long-haul routes between Italy and the US, Canada and Japan. On such routes, ITA on the one hand and Lufthansa and its joint venture partners on the other hand compete head-to-head with direct or indirect flights. Competition from other airlines appears insufficient on those routes. In its assessment, the Commission treats the activities of ITA, Lufthansa and its joint venture partners as those of a single entity after the merger.
  • Create or strengthen ITA's dominant position at the Milan-Linate airport, which could make it harder for rivals to provide passenger air transport services from and to Milan-Linate.
Every year, millions of passengers travel on those routes for a total annual spending of over €3 billion. The Commission's objective is to ensure that the transaction would not lead to adverse effects for customers – consumers and businesses alike – in terms of increased prices or decreased quality of services. ITA has had a successful start to its operations. The Commission is concerned that, absent suitable remedies, the removal of ITA as an independent airline may have negative effects on competition in these already concentrated markets. The routes giving rise to potential concerns represent a small share of total short- and long-haul routes and passengers served by both parties and their joint venture partners, and the potential concerns do not affect the vast majority of routes that ITA operates.

A Statement of Objections is a formal step in an investigation, where the Commission informs the companies concerned in writing of the objections raised against them. The sending of a Statement of Objections does not prejudge the outcome of the investigation. Lufthansa and MEF now have the opportunity to reply to the Commission's Statement of Objections, to consult the Commission's case file and to request an oral hearing.

Lufthansa and MEF also have the possibility to put forward remedies to address the preliminary competition concerns identified by the Commission. They can decide to submit remedies at any time of the proceedings until the remedy deadline, which currently falls on 26 April 2024.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres.../en/IP_24_1430

Swap Scandinavia with Italy and CPH with Linate...
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Old Apr 8, 2024, 4:12 am
  #444  
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Originally Posted by oliver2002
Some more insight from the EU commission on the ITA-LH merger:



https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres.../en/IP_24_1430

Swap Scandinavia with Italy and CPH with Linate...
One key difference is that SK competes with Norwegian in the European market, that unlike Ryanair does not fly to secondary airports far away, but head to head on key business routes.

I don't know what ITA's current long haul fleet is, but SK's minute fleet probably means most long haul passengers out of Scandinavia are already connecting so whether SK partners with Lufti or AFKLM should competition wise not really mean that much.
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Last edited by CPH-Flyer; Apr 8, 2024 at 5:18 am
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Old Apr 8, 2024, 4:53 am
  #445  
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Both are roughly the same: ITA has 19 widebodies (13 A330, 6 A350), SAS 12 (8 A330, 4 A350)
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/...to%20Aereo.htm
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/...20Airlines.htm

ITA and SAS are both not part of a ATI alliance and would become part of one when the merger is done, so the EU competition authorities will apply the same criteria.
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Old Apr 8, 2024, 3:05 pm
  #446  
 
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Originally Posted by CPH-Flyer
most long haul passengers out of Scandinavia are already connecting so whether SK partners with Lufti or AFKLM should competition wise not really mean that much.
I guess there is a difference as it's about controlling ownership rather than alliance - LHG has no direct control such as over SK pricing or schedule while AFKLM will.
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Old Apr 8, 2024, 4:13 pm
  #447  
 
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Today DI.SE (Swedish "FT.COM") mentioned that SAS will leave *A in September
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Old Apr 8, 2024, 4:18 pm
  #448  
 
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Originally Posted by DirektornSE
Today DI.SE (Swedish "FT.COM") mentioned that SAS will leave *A in September
The new rules can be found here: https://www.flysas.com/en/eurobonus/skyteam/

What does it mean that they are planning for alliance switch even before regulatory approval for the deal?
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Old Apr 8, 2024, 10:57 pm
  #449  
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Originally Posted by SAllen
The new rules can be found here: https://www.flysas.com/en/eurobonus/skyteam/

What does it mean that they are planning for alliance switch even before regulatory approval for the deal?
Yes, that is what they are planning. Because no one outside a few on this forum who hates Sky Garbage expects the EU to reject the deal.All hopes of the EU functioning as some kind of White Knight swooping in to keep SAS out of the Sky Garbage alliance and in *A is mostly all dreams, but no hope. They may have to give up some routes and slot times, but it won't be more than that.

I hate Sky Team and this alliance switch really puts me on the losing end of being able to maintain status as Sky Garbage just doesn't fly to enough of the places I do work-wise. But I acknowledge the inevitable. 15 years as EBG and 10 years as EBD was a good run with an airline 🙃 We will see what the futures brings.
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Old Apr 9, 2024, 12:35 am
  #450  
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Originally Posted by SAllen
The new rules can be found here: https://www.flysas.com/en/eurobonus/skyteam/

What does it mean that they are planning for alliance switch even before regulatory approval for the deal?
Switching from Star Alliance to Skyteam is not pending regulatory approval. I still doubt very much that the initial sub 20% investment from AFKLM requires any approval either. Where it will need to go through the hands of the EU is the participation in the JV and a controlling ownership share. And potentially the Danish government's money.
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