Community
Wiki Posts
Search

Worst-case terrorist scenario

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old Oct 21, 2007 | 5:57 pm
  #136  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: USA
Programs: UA/CO(1K-PLT), AA(PLT), QR, EK, Marriott(PLT), Hilton(DMND)
Posts: 9,538
Hmmm. Should I or shouldn't I?
PhlyingRPh is offline  
Old Oct 21, 2007 | 6:05 pm
  #137  
Original Poster
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Programs: AAdvantage, SkyMiles, USAir, Singapore, BA
Posts: 602
Originally Posted by GUWonder
I didn't say that you hold your point of view out of ignorance, but the point of view expressed certainly seems to factor out expected outcomes and risk management in such a way that would justify spending money to prepare for an invasion from Mars tomorrow.
And that differs from ignorance in what way?
CessnaJock is offline  
Old Oct 21, 2007 | 6:09 pm
  #138  
Original Poster
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Programs: AAdvantage, SkyMiles, USAir, Singapore, BA
Posts: 602
Could you disguise your device as a laptop or GameBoy and walk right onto a plane with it? Or build a timer into it and secrete it in a checked bag or cargo shipment?

Originally Posted by Global_Hi_Flyer
Very highly unlikely.
Tell me what's unlikely (or very unlikely - or very highly unlikely) about disguising a source of high-power EMI so the people looking for explosives would overlook it?

Judging from the caliber of TSA people I've encountered, it's more than likely.
CessnaJock is offline  
Old Oct 21, 2007 | 6:46 pm
  #139  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,077
Originally Posted by Bart
Seeing as how the Federal Bureau of Investigation has legal jurisdiction to investigate crimes of terrorism in the United States and acts of terrorism involving US citizens/US interests overseas, I think I'll stick with their definition.
The FBI doesn't have a monopoly on the English langauge. Furthermore, the FBI seems to have problem with "terrorism" charges and so mostly does "terrorism-related" ones. It seems like they might have a few problems with their operational definition.

Originally Posted by PhlyingRPh
Hmmm. Should I or shouldn't I?
Why not? For a lot of people the worst-case terrorist scenario is being bombed by a foreign country with nuclear weapons that threatens to bomb them back into the stone age and basically wipe them off the face of the map. That's a rather terrifying prospect coming from a party that can do just that.
GUWonder is offline  
Old Oct 21, 2007 | 6:58 pm
  #140  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: USA
Programs: UA/CO(1K-PLT), AA(PLT), QR, EK, Marriott(PLT), Hilton(DMND)
Posts: 9,538
Originally Posted by GUWonder
The FBI doesn't have a monopoly on the English langauge. Furthermore, the FBI seems to have problem with "terrorism" charges and so mostly does "terrorism-related" ones. It seems like they might have a few problems with their operational definition.



Why not? For a lot of people the worst-case terrorist scenario is being bombed by a foreign country with nuclear weapons that threatens to bomb them back into the stone age and basically wipe them off the face of the map. That's a rather terrifying prospect coming from a party that can do just that.
...but sometimes people just hand you their leg on a silver platter - and that's no fun. I think I'll wait a little longer.
PhlyingRPh is offline  
Old Oct 21, 2007 | 7:05 pm
  #141  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: CLT
Programs: Choice Hotels/FFOCUS
Posts: 7,259
Originally Posted by law dawg
Do you mean to tell me you're rooting for the TRIBE?

Oh the humanity.......
As I'm a Yankee fan no way can I route for sox
Now back to topic...sorry mods.
coachrowsey is offline  
Old Oct 21, 2007 | 8:44 pm
  #142  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 8,389
Originally Posted by GUWonder
The FBI doesn't have a monopoly on the English langauge. Furthermore, the FBI seems to have problem with "terrorism" charges and so mostly does "terrorism-related" ones. It seems like they might have a few problems with their operational definition.
Wow. You're truly a piece of work. I guess Robert Mueller (the Director, FBI) should get in touch with you to find out where his agents are screwing up.
Bart is offline  
Old Oct 21, 2007 | 9:02 pm
  #143  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,077
Originally Posted by Bart
Wow. You're truly a piece of work. I guess Robert Mueller (the Director, FBI) should get in touch with you to find out where his agents are screwing up.


No one definition of terrorism has gained universal acceptance ....., however, we have chosen the definition of terrorism contained in Title 22 of the United States Code, Section 2656f(d):

....

The term "terrorism" means premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience.
Usually is "not always".

The US Government has employed this definition of terrorism for statistical and analytical purposes since 1983.
In the interest of innoculating one's self from criticism, a country engaging in self-dealing through word games and creative definitions is not a surprise and so they come up with definitions that downplay the notion of state terrorism as well.
GUWonder is offline  
Old Oct 21, 2007 | 9:58 pm
  #144  
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 4,704
Originally Posted by coachrowsey
As I'm a Yankee fan no way can I route for sox
Now back to topic...sorry mods.
Whoops! Sorry Coach!

<not really......>

law dawg is offline  
Old Oct 22, 2007 | 7:41 am
  #145  
10 Countries Visited
20 Countries Visited
30 Countries Visited
15 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: DCA / WAS
Programs: DL 2+ million/PM, YX, Marriott Plt, *wood gold, HHonors, CO Plt, UA, AA EXP, WN, AGR
Posts: 9,386
Originally Posted by CessnaJock
Could you disguise your device as a laptop or GameBoy and walk right onto a plane with it? Or build a timer into it and secrete it in a checked bag or cargo shipment?
No. Even using solid state electronics and the most efficient batteries that exist you cannot generate enough power to incapacitate the on-board avionics. Further, even if you did affect the avionics, there is no guarantee that the result would a) give you control of the airliner, or b) incapacitate the airliner.

Tell me what's unlikely (or very unlikely - or very highly unlikely) about disguising a source of high-power EMI so the people looking for explosives would overlook it?

Judging from the caliber of TSA people I've encountered, it's more than likely.
Whether or not the TSA could detect it is not the issue.

The problem is that you can't get enough EMI power generated from a portable device with a battery power supply over a long enough period of time to get the results you're talking about. You can get a couple of moderately high power pulses, but generating high power levels requires large components, lots of energy, and lots of heat dissipation. AND you need to generate enough energy across a wide band of frequencies to jam everything on a plane. Total power required can be figured by doing an integral calculus across bandwidth and instantaneous power on a given frequency. You can't generate more energy than the batteries can provide.

Here are a couple of examples: On the river approach into DCA, from the north, you pass within relatively close proximity to several TV towers. A couple of those transmitters have effective radiated power in the megawatts at UHF frequencies. There are also several of the FM stations close by to the approach path - generating kilowatts of power each. Planes don't fall out of the sky there....

There are a number of other places in the world where aircraft regularly land adjacent to very high power transmitting stations, including the Meadowlands (NJ), near Newark and Teterboro, or planes landing at SFO and Oakland.

Now, it is possible to affect specific frequencies navigation electronics or communications electronics. But even if you affect certain frequencies, there are alternative frequencies available, and there are alternative landing locations that may not require the affected frequencies. And there are still some PAR approaches available around the country (PAR = ground controller issues left-right-descend instructions to the pilot via radio) that could be used if no other nav gear were working on the plane.

Now, I'm not saying it would be completely impossible to incapacitate an airliner, but the equipment required to do so would be large, bulky, and require more energy than can be carried on an airliner, even as cargo. Ergo, it is highly unlikely that you can cause a crash in that fashion. And even then, it would not be predictable.... predicitability being one thing that the terrorist community seems to value.

It would be far more practical for a terrorist or terrorist-wannabe to obtain and use a shoulder-fired rocket.
Global_Hi_Flyer is offline  
Old Oct 22, 2007 | 10:45 am
  #146  
Moderator, Omni, Omni/PR, Omni/Games, FlyerTalk Posting Legend
20 Countries Visited
1M
40 Nights
20 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Between DCA and IAD
Programs: UA 1K MM; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 72,658
Originally Posted by magiciansampras
I disagree. A lot (most?) of them are quite stupid.
Not the ones running the show. A lot of them have advanced degrees in engineering disciplines and the sciences.
exerda is offline  
Old Oct 22, 2007 | 10:56 am
  #147  
Original Poster
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Programs: AAdvantage, SkyMiles, USAir, Singapore, BA
Posts: 602
Originally Posted by Global_Hi_Flyer
The problem is that you can't get enough EMI power generated from a portable device with a battery power supply over a long enough period of time to get the results you're talking about. Now, I'm not saying it would be completely impossible to incapacitate an airliner, but the equipment required to do so would be large, bulky, and require more energy than can be carried on an airliner, even as cargo.
You've got a very restrictive set of assumptions. First: solid-state. Well, I think I'd use a spark gap. Very intense very broadband energy. Second: batteries. The AC outlets at the seats would work over as many charge-discharge cycles as it took.

Other than that, I agree that it would be possible to incapacitate an airliner from inside, because the field strength would be orders of magnitude greater than those reaching the airplane from nearby transmitters on the ground. Inverse square law.
CessnaJock is offline  
Old Oct 22, 2007 | 11:10 am
  #148  
Moderator, Omni, Omni/PR, Omni/Games, FlyerTalk Posting Legend
20 Countries Visited
1M
40 Nights
20 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Between DCA and IAD
Programs: UA 1K MM; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 72,658
Originally Posted by CessnaJock
So if it were done on 500 planes, 10 would crash? 5000?Think what you're saying!
Think what you're saying, too, though. There's no way terrorists would be able to plan such a large-scale plot, build the devices, deploy them and board a significant portion of them onto planes, without being caught up and detected at some point in the process.

Assuming there is a RF-based threat--which I'm dubious of, but for the sake of argument we'll assume is valid--there's still the problem of getting it onto enough planes to cause enough failures to make it worthwhile to terrorists. Our intelligence infrastructure may deserve some criticism, but I am fairly certain they would catch on to a plot which would require terrorists make 500 flights with RF devices to be effective. (And--making the reasonable assumption that such a device would be far short of 100% effective--surely pilots would start making reports of weird interference on the planes which weren't crashed--and thus would really tip off authorities to the potential problem).

It's just not a viable scenario.


Originally Posted by CessnaJock
You mean their box-cutters would have passed manual, magnetometer, and x-ray screening? I never realized that.
I've had a small folding knife (3.5" blade) pass through security multiple times this year alone. (I had not realized it was in my laptop bag until after having gone through at least three TSA checkpoints with it--with not a single one even triggering a bag check!) A friend of mine had a much larger folding knife (a 6" blade) pass through several checkpoints as well in 2002.

So no, I don't have much faith the TSA, in their squinting at the x-rays to try to spot caps on bottles and the like, would catch box cutters very often, even today.


Originally Posted by Bart
Either way, terrorists want us to know that they did this. A bomb does that. A gun pointed in someone's face does that. A plane flown deliberately into a building does that. A mysterious crash does not.
I mostly agree... although to play devil's advocate, I suspect a series of "unexplained" crashes would go a long way toward creating general panic and terror and thus might serve the terrorists' goals just the same.
exerda is offline  
Old Oct 22, 2007 | 11:32 am
  #149  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
All eyes on you!
20 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RSW
Programs: HHonors - Diamond; IHG - Diamond; Marriott Bonvoy - Platinum
Posts: 14,288
Originally Posted by exerda
I've had a small folding knife (3.5" blade) pass through security multiple times this year alone. (I had not realized it was in my laptop bag until after having gone through at least three TSA checkpoints with it--with not a single one even triggering a bag check!) A friend of mine had a much larger folding knife (a 6" blade) pass through several checkpoints as well in 2002.

So no, I don't have much faith the TSA, in their squinting at the x-rays to try to spot caps on bottles and the like, would catch box cutters very often, even today.




I mostly agree... although to play devil's advocate, I suspect a series of "unexplained" crashes would go a long way toward creating general panic and terror and thus might serve the terrorists' goals just the same.

Too busy haggling about toothpaste and deodorant to catch weapons.
Points Scrounger is offline  
Old Oct 22, 2007 | 11:44 am
  #150  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Watchlisted by the prejudiced, en route to purgatory
Programs: Just Say No to Fleecing and Blacklisting
Posts: 102,077
If disabling planes was so readily possible for terrorists, wouldn't the DoD already know about it?
GUWonder is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.