I was thinking - with the "mission creep" meter alarming a bit lately (taking over ID checks, SPOT, more electronics must be removed, etc), I wonder what airport screening will be like in 3-5 years. What's your predication?

There are two possible scenarios that come to mind for me:

1) TSA will implement another intrusive policy soon and that will break the camel's back. People will protest, and even Congress will realize TSA had gone too far. Airport security rules will loosen up, with SPOT only being at critical-security airports (such as NYC, Los Angeles, DC), shoes not being removed, and the liquid ban removed. This could take a while, but they'd eventually curtail those policies, and TSA screeners will stay as screeners, with help from security cameras and people being viligant. They'll also install puffers at each airport.

2) TSA will become increasingly intrusive, but people will continue to accept their BS. Eventually, TSA will get a list of stolen items from retailers, and try to find things that are stolen. The liquid ban will be there to stay, and eventually the ban would extend to breast milk, too (because mom's can be tewwoists, ya know). Carry-ons will become more limited, and cords will have to be checked. ID's will be REQUIRED to fly, and you'll be required to participate in a conversation about where you're going (yes, domestically)... more and more SPOT officers will watch and observe behaviors, and gate checking will eventually be mandatory, too. TSA screeners (officers) will also be equipped with taser gun's to keep people in line.

Those two are kind of the "extreme" ends - I hope #2 definitely won't come true.

So, post your own predictations/gut feelings of what will come of TSA/airport security.

#2 is Kippie Porn - Hope he doesn't read FT

I predict many more SNL skits.

I am reminded of the saying "The beatings will continue until morale improves".

Given that we have a war on drugs, a war on crime, a war on terrorism, a war on the American public, a war on ___________, I just don't see it letting up. Especially since the "public safety" folks will be sharing data and since some dim bulb has realized that the TSA screeners represent a wonderful opportunity to stop whatever crime du jour exists.... regardless of the Constitution. Recall that the Admiralty Laws have been used in the war on drugs, and that RICO is now used in many, many more legal cases than it was originally intended for (because the penalties are much higher than the underlying crimes would ordinarily carry).

I see absolutely no end to this useless government organization. Our government wants us to believe that if we make grandma take off her shoes and coat before going to the gate that will keep us safe (versus using covert operations to find where the bad guys are) and Americans just fall for it. Unfortunately, Iraq and our continued involvement in the Middle East has made the problem much worse thus insuring that the keystone cops of the TSA will have jobs for life.

Although it might take a period of time, I do truly believe that OP's Scenario #1 is the eventual outcome. One day the TSA will go too far and finally the sheeple will speak out against the intrusiveness.

I think #2 is more likely, unfortunately. You need a mass movement to make #1 come true. But the majority of Americans don't fly much, and the majority that do are happy to do anything "if it makes us safer."

You throw a frog into boiling water and it goes nuts; you put a frog in a soothing pan of warm water and turn up the heat slowly and it senses no violation. We are going to wake up one day and find we're required to file 24-hour notice of interstate travel on a TSA website, and a majority will be OK with that. I really despair for this country.

Agree. Until the thought-process "abundance of caution" are stricken from the minds of those in power, we will continue down the path to self-destruction.

Almost daily I read in the paper about things that I did or enjoyed as a youth that have been banned or are now crimes.... out of "protecting us from ourselves". If it didn't hurt/kill us back then WHY do we need to ban it now?

/rant off

Like dodge ball in gym class? Or all the physical tests/eating rules mothers-to-be are frightened into submitting to or following with no concommitant drop in the incidence of birth defects?

I agree - just leave us alone and we'll be fine.

Increased morale, better pay, more customer focused, more annual leave

I think the tide has already begun turning against the TSA - more and more members of the traveling public are vocalizing their displeasure and actually recognizing that most of what they experience is nothing more than window dressing.

The difficulty will be in generating action - Congress (based on my own experience) is loath to act on anything which a political enemy could construe as weakening security defenses.

However, the TSA is its own worst enemy. Suffering from unsustainable attrition rates, the quality of new hires continues to decline, and with that, the number of employees sticking it out also continues to fall. Soon, a critical mass could be reached where the number of new hires falls far short of the number of resignations/firings and the employee rolls drop below levels necessary to provide appropriate staffing at our airports.

As this occurs, more airports will begin looking to opt-out and bringing in their own contract screeners. The TSA will quickly evolve into a top-level security policy/procedure clearinghouse with little to no field presence.

TSA's insistence on increasing the use of part-time screeners is hurting the organization. TSA expects new people to come to work right in the middle of the day for 20-25 hours a week. Maintaining a second job becomes an impossibility. Bad relations with the employees is going to lead to bad relations with the customers.

I was recently offered full-time split shifts with a two hour break. This works fine for me and most of my colleagues who took split-shift. Most places split-shift means a 4 hour break as mentioned by DCA Screener. This would NOT work well for most screeners. It took some of us 3 years to be offered real full-time employement. Most people just get sick of waiting and quit.

That sounds like the Wal-Mart employment model. But, you get an employee discount at Wal-Mart. ^

And perhaps drug testing.

I have never seen the phrase "Kippie Porn," but it is the most accurate description of this crap that I have ever read. I intend to re-use it often. MikeFly, please let me know if you need to be credited.

Mike