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TSA: The $7 Billion boondoggle

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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 7:19 pm
  #31  
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Originally Posted by law dawg
True. But I would bet on the people with training in hijackings and their complexities rather than on those who don't.
95% of the time, they won't be there to help. I'd probably have a better chance of hitting the lottery than being on a plane that gets hijacked and happens to have a FAM on it.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 7:21 pm
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Originally Posted by Bobster
Remember that the 9/11 attack was only partially successful. Now they can't use commercial airliners to finish the job because we're prepared for that this time. If we were smart, we'd be looking to head them off from their next attack instead of preparing for 9/11 to happen again.
This is where we disagree. I think most people THINK they're prepared, but they haven't the foggiest what that actually means.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 7:22 pm
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Originally Posted by Superguy
95% of the time, they won't be there to help. I'd probably have a better chance of hitting the lottery than being on a plane that gets hijacked and happens to have a FAM on it.
What percentage of all the flights in the US do you think are really attractive as targets? No where near 100%.......
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 7:23 pm
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Originally Posted by law dawg
True. But I would bet on the people with training in hijackings and their complexities rather than on those who don't.
Nobody is questioning that the FAMs are experts in their tactics and training. Obviously they are better at fighting hijackers than regular civilians. The question is whether their formidable skills are being wasted doing a job that is not really necessary when our society has so many vulnerabilities and needs.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 7:23 pm
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Originally Posted by law dawg
Not in a hijacking. And remember, that is a FAMs primary responsibility.
Fair enough, but there have been incidents where pax have come towards the flight deck and the pax still had to deal with them.

True, but you have to bet the percentages when you have limited resources. Train to handle what happens most and you'll handle most of what happens. I'm not aware of many terrorist hijackings of cargo planes, but I could be wrong too.
I agree with prioritization, but also think that our priorities are in the wrong places.

Because people won't say "That could have been me on that plane!"
But they could say "that could have been my package!"

Seriously though, they might not say that they could hvae been on that plane, but it could have been them in that building/in one of those planes on the taxiway/etc.

While I agree to a point, you can't harden everything. We have limited resources. We have to spend them accordingly. There have been no cargo terror attacks to my knowledge. There have been many, many in civilian aviation.
Like I said, I agree with the prioritizations, but we can't always be reactive either. Placing SOME resources where they've been before is prudent to make sure they don't try to come back again. However, it doesn't mean you throw all your resources into one area where they would only to ignore where they haven't been.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 7:26 pm
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Originally Posted by law dawg
What percentage of all the flights in the US do you think are really attractive as targets? No where near 100%.......
But I bet it's more than what FAMs are on.

Sure, a heavy might be more attractive, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't take a 737 if they had a significantly greater chance of success.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 7:27 pm
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Originally Posted by docmonkey
Nobody is questioning that the FAMs are experts in their tactics and training. Obviously they are better at fighting hijackers than regular civilians. The question is whether their formidable skills are being wasted doing a job that is not really necessary when our society has so many vulnerabilities and needs.
Thank you.

I also worry about skillrot sitting on the plane day after day.

When I worked for the government, even though I attended classes regularly in my field and was "working" in my field, my skills weren't nearly as sharp because I was doing more theoretical and work in simulated environments.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 7:27 pm
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Originally Posted by law dawg
What percentage of all the flights in the US do you think are really attractive as targets? No where near 100%.......
This year and last year and the year before and the year before, 0%, apparently. If a flight does become attractive enough, I would guess it would likely be one where hijackers verify no FAM is on board.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 7:37 pm
  #39  
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Originally Posted by law dawg
Always a probability. No doubt. But, honestly, does taking over a cargo plane have the same visceral impact as a civilian jet liner? Would it affect the economy as much? Because another hijacking would severely hurt the airline industry for a long time. Hijacking a cargo plane only really affects that plane and anywhere it crashes. It won't affect civilian aviation (as much I don't think, although it would a little.)
This is what I mean when I say if all you have is a hammer.

I don't believe that the "terrorists" are that focused on commercial aircraft and that they will be perfectly happy to take advantage of our fixated blindside.

I would like to note once again that we are not facing the shadowy global KAOS organization, but a world full of disaffected little groups. Bin Laden, like 9/11, was a one-off once he stung a little too deep.

What would it take to convince you that a 9/11 repeat will never happen?

Originally Posted by law dawg
They used chemicals on 9/11
.

I mean military-grade chemicals. Nerve agents where they have taken the antidote or are otherwise prepared, for example.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 7:40 pm
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Originally Posted by Superguy
Thank you.

I also worry about skillrot sitting on the plane day after day.

When I worked for the government, even though I attended classes regularly in my field and was "working" in my field, my skills weren't nearly as sharp because I was doing more theoretical and work in simulated environments.
I wouldn't worry about skillrot with these guys. The chances that they would ever even be needed are so statistically small that I don't think it will ever come into play. It is even sillier than worrying if the people in the emergency exit rows are spry enough or if the flotation device under your seat happens to be the one with the factory defect.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 8:06 pm
  #41  
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Imagine that. A thread that goes uphill.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 8:12 pm
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Originally Posted by docmonkey
I wouldn't worry about skillrot with these guys. The chances that they would ever even be needed are so statistically small that I don't think it will ever come into play.
For a second there I thought you were talking about the pilots.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 8:28 pm
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Originally Posted by Wally Bird
Given the chance.

Danny Lewin was a captain in Israel's most elite commando unit, "Sayeret Matkal" and had extensive anti-terrorism training.

According to the linked article, Danny Lewin was stabbed from behind. Hmm, what has a certain FT'er repeatedly posted about FAM's sitting in the front of the airplane, in first class? Now that cockpit doors are hardened, terrorists/hijackers are exceedingly unlikely to take over the flight deck. If terrorist walks up behind FAM in first class and piths the FAM with a pencil (think of the frog dissection in biology class), all the training in the world will not be worth a hill of beans.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 8:31 pm
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Originally Posted by law dawg
Useless in the back. The event would be over before anyone in the back knew what was happening and could make their way up to the front.



If cargo planes are such a tempting target, then why haven't they been used in three decades?

Answer : because a terrorist's job is to create terror. Civilian aviation is more bang for the buck than cargo. Its hits economically, structurally and culturally.
How often had passenger airliners been used as guided missiles before 9/11/2001? Imaginative terrorists will unfortunately probably trump bureaucrats fighting the last war.
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Old Jun 7, 2007 | 9:32 pm
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Originally Posted by Superguy
Thank you.

I also worry about skillrot sitting on the plane day after day.

When I worked for the government, even though I attended classes regularly in my field and was "working" in my field, my skills weren't nearly as sharp because I was doing more theoretical and work in simulated environments.
The FAMs I know train every week or every other week.

As for the above posts about resources, I agree with quite a bit of them. You can't cover everything. You can only cover what you can cover, and civilian aviation has LONG been a target.
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